The value of information for integrated assessment models of climate change

Abstract

We estimate the value of information (VOI) for three key parameters of climate integrated assessment models (IAMs): marginal damages at low temperature anomalies, marginal damages at high temperature anomalies, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Most empirical studies of climate damages have examined temperature anomalies up to 3°C, while some recent theoretical studies emphasize the risks of “climate catastrophes,” which depend on climate sensitivity and on marginal damages at higher temperature anomalies. We use a new IAM to estimate the VOI for each parameter over a range of assumed levels of study precision based on prior probability distributions calibrated using results from previous studies. We measure the VOI as the maximum fixed fraction of consumption that a social planner would be willing to pay to conduct a new study before setting a carbon tax. Our central results suggest that the VOI is greatest for marginal damages at high temperature anomalies.