The use of decomposition in probability assessments of continuous variables

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, decomposition is used as a tool for the assessment of continuous probability distributions. The goal of using decomposition is to obtain better calibrated probability distributions by expressing a variable as a known function of several component variables. Three target quantities were used in the study. Each was assessed holistically and using two different decompositions. Thus, each subject provided three distributions for each of the three target quantities. The recomposed assessments were compared to holistic assessments. The distributions obtained using decomposition were found to be much better calibrated than those obtained holistically. Two methods of aggregating distributions from multiple subjects were also examined. One involves aggregating (averaging) distributions before recomposing while the second method involves recomposing and then averaging distributions for the target variable. The second method was found to be slightly better, although both showed better calibration than was found in the individual assessments.