The Top Two: Too Soon to Tell

Abstract

The Top Two: Too Soon to Tell Zabrae Valentine Until just a handful of years ago electoral reform advocates in California engaged regularly in eager debates about whether, with the right mix of structural governance reforms, state gov- ernment could be more accountable and effective for all Californians instead of only those with deep pockets and close ties to key power brokers (for a government reform geek, this is a very thrilling line of discussion, I promise you). Everyone had a theory, but no one knew for sure— because as recently as early November 2008, California hadn’t passed any of the numerous state- level reforms now jostling California voters. There was no Citizens Redistricting Commission, no Top Two, no loosening of the term limits law, and no initiative process reform (signed by Governor Brown only a few months ago). The last several years have been a veritable whirlwind of reform. Not surprisingly, now near- ly every pundit in the state and no doubt a few political scientists is desperate to opine on wheth- er the landscape has changed, and if so, then for better or worse? Data on the impact of these new policies is trickling in, but we should avoid firm conclusions until the Top Two has had time to take hold. Ideally, this will include giving voters a chance to become aware of the policy changes and consider altering their voting behavior in response, since impact on voter behavior is a major element of the predicted benefit of most of these reforms. The suggestion to chill for a while particularly applies to those eager to pass judgment on the Top Two, the efficacy of which really is largely a function of voter awareness and behavior. Absolutely we should be tracking the political affiliation of primary and run-off election can- didates, voter turnout, and how winners behave once in office, in the context of the Top Two. But it doesn’t make sense to try to interpret possible changes in voter behavior until voters have had a chance to know that in this shimmering new reform-infused world they can vote for any candidate irrespective of party affiliation, and all of those candidates are (or should be) vying for their vote. If, after robust steps have been taken to alert voters to these changes, voters still take a pass, then perhaps the reform should be viewed as less-than-wholly effective (controlling for un- related hurdles that also discourage eligible nonvoters from voting). Voter education of this kind hasn’t been done in a big way yet, but hopefully we’ll see it in 2016. In addition to ensuring voters are going to be in the loop, there is one more thing to consider. For the Top Two to actually be transformational, the date of the California primary also needs to be moved to much later in the year—for example, August. Candidates need sufficient time with voters to communicate their political agenda, values and leadership style, and voters need that time to absorb this information and decide what to do with it. The more candidates there are to choose from—and with the Top Two there could be many more—the harder this stage of the process is for everyone.