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The Temporal Dynamics of Attentional Allocation during Counterfactual Learning.

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Abstract
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Counterfactual learning, the ability to learn from what could have happened under different circumstances, is a key cognitive mechanism supporting behavioral adaptation. While its neural and computational underpinnings are increasingly understood, the temporal dynamics of attention toward factual and counterfactual outcomes remain poorly characterized. Here, we investigate the biological mechanisms underlying this process using a reinforcement learning task combined with eye-tracking and pupillometry in 36 human participants. Participants completed a two-armed bandit task with full outcome feedback and exhibited a robust confirmation bias, learning more from outcomes that supported their previous choices. Gaze patterns revealed a consistent temporal sequence of fixations from factual to counterfactual outcomes, modulated in opposite directions by the valence of each outcome. Pupil dilation, a proxy for noradrenergic arousal, was influenced by the factual outcome and by the similarity between factual and counterfactual feedback, consistent with increased surprise during disconfirmatory events. These results provide a mechanistic account of how attentional and arousal systems jointly shape outcome evaluation. By integrating behavioral modeling with physiological markers, this work contributes to a broader understanding of the adaptive constraints on decision-making and offers new insight into how organisms evaluate hypothetical alternatives in learning contexts.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 245
  • 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005684
Confirmation bias in human reinforcement learning: Evidence from counterfactual feedback processing
  • Aug 11, 2017
  • PLoS Computational Biology
  • Stefano Palminteri + 3 more

Previous studies suggest that factual learning, that is, learning from obtained outcomes, is biased, such that participants preferentially take into account positive, as compared to negative, prediction errors. However, whether or not the prediction error valence also affects counterfactual learning, that is, learning from forgone outcomes, is unknown. To address this question, we analysed the performance of two groups of participants on reinforcement learning tasks using a computational model that was adapted to test if prediction error valence influences learning. We carried out two experiments: in the factual learning experiment, participants learned from partial feedback (i.e., the outcome of the chosen option only); in the counterfactual learning experiment, participants learned from complete feedback information (i.e., the outcomes of both the chosen and unchosen option were displayed). In the factual learning experiment, we replicated previous findings of a valence-induced bias, whereby participants learned preferentially from positive, relative to negative, prediction errors. In contrast, for counterfactual learning, we found the opposite valence-induced bias: negative prediction errors were preferentially taken into account, relative to positive ones. When considering valence-induced bias in the context of both factual and counterfactual learning, it appears that people tend to preferentially take into account information that confirms their current choice.

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  • Cite Count Icon 17
  • 10.1038/s41598-017-06547-8
Specific effect of a dopamine partial agonist on counterfactual learning: evidence from Gilles de la Tourette syndrome
  • Jul 24, 2017
  • Scientific Reports
  • Alexandre Salvador + 7 more

The dopamine partial agonist aripiprazole is increasingly used to treat pathologies for which other antipsychotics are indicated because it displays fewer side effects, such as sedation and depression-like symptoms, than other dopamine receptor antagonists. Previously, we showed that aripiprazole may protect motivational function by preserving reinforcement-related signals used to sustain reward-maximization. However, the effect of aripiprazole on more cognitive facets of human reinforcement learning, such as learning from the forgone outcomes of alternative courses of action (i.e., counterfactual learning), is unknown. To test the influence of aripiprazole on counterfactual learning, we administered a reinforcement learning task that involves both direct learning from obtained outcomes and indirect learning from forgone outcomes to two groups of Gilles de la Tourette (GTS) patients, one consisting of patients who were completely unmedicated and the other consisting of patients who were receiving aripiprazole monotherapy, and to healthy subjects. We found that whereas learning performance improved in the presence of counterfactual feedback in both healthy controls and unmedicated GTS patients, this was not the case in aripiprazole-medicated GTS patients. Our results suggest that whereas aripiprazole preserves direct learning of action-outcome associations, it may impair more complex inferential processes, such as counterfactual learning from forgone outcomes, in GTS patients treated with this medication.

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  • Cite Count Icon 17
  • 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001092
Learning: Not Just the Facts, Ma'am, but the Counterfactuals as Well
  • Jun 28, 2011
  • PLoS Biology
  • Michael L Platt + 1 more

Our brains allow us to consider rewards and other scenarios that could have happened but did not. Such counterfactual outcomes can influence our choices and hasten learning. A series of recent studies has begun to untangle the neural circuitry responsible for monitoring counterfactual outcomes. Here, we summarize several recent complementary discoveries, including a new article in the current issue of PLoS Biology. Neurons in several brain areas that process directly experienced rewards respond to counterfactual information about rewards as well. Among these brain regions, the frontal pole appears to be most specialized, and carries a decision variable representing the value of the best alternative option. Together, these findings suggest that counterfactual learning and thinking build upon scaffolding circuits that evolved to learn from direct experience.

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  • Cite Count Icon 168
  • 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004953
The Computational Development of Reinforcement Learning during Adolescence.
  • Jun 20, 2016
  • PLOS Computational Biology
  • Stefano Palminteri + 3 more

Adolescence is a period of life characterised by changes in learning and decision-making. Learning and decision-making do not rely on a unitary system, but instead require the coordination of different cognitive processes that can be mathematically formalised as dissociable computational modules. Here, we aimed to trace the developmental time-course of the computational modules responsible for learning from reward or punishment, and learning from counterfactual feedback. Adolescents and adults carried out a novel reinforcement learning paradigm in which participants learned the association between cues and probabilistic outcomes, where the outcomes differed in valence (reward versus punishment) and feedback was either partial or complete (either the outcome of the chosen option only, or the outcomes of both the chosen and unchosen option, were displayed). Computational strategies changed during development: whereas adolescents’ behaviour was better explained by a basic reinforcement learning algorithm, adults’ behaviour integrated increasingly complex computational features, namely a counterfactual learning module (enabling enhanced performance in the presence of complete feedback) and a value contextualisation module (enabling symmetrical reward and punishment learning). Unlike adults, adolescent performance did not benefit from counterfactual (complete) feedback. In addition, while adults learned symmetrically from both reward and punishment, adolescents learned from reward but were less likely to learn from punishment. This tendency to rely on rewards and not to consider alternative consequences of actions might contribute to our understanding of decision-making in adolescence.

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  • Cite Count Icon 177
  • 10.3389/fnbeh.2013.00218
Pupil dilation signals uncertainty and surprise in a learning gambling task
  • Jan 3, 2014
  • Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience
  • Claudio Lavín + 2 more

Pupil dilation under constant illumination is a physiological marker where modulation is related to several cognitive functions involved in daily decision making. There is evidence for a role of pupil dilation change during decision-making tasks associated with uncertainty, reward-prediction errors and surprise. However, while some work suggests that pupil dilation is mainly modulated by reward predictions, others point out that this marker is related to uncertainty signaling and surprise. Supporting the latter hypothesis, the neural substrate of this marker is related to noradrenaline (NA) activity which has been also related to uncertainty signaling. In this work we aimed to test whether pupil dilation is a marker for uncertainty and surprise in a learning task. We recorded pupil dilation responses in 10 participants performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a decision-making task that requires learning and constant monitoring of outcomes’ feedback, which are important variables within the traditional study of human decision making. Results showed that pupil dilation changes were modulated by learned uncertainty and surprise regardless of feedback magnitudes. Interestingly, greater pupil dilation changes were found during positive feedback (PF) presentation when there was lower uncertainty about a future negative feedback (NF); and by surprise during NF presentation. These results support the hypothesis that pupil dilation is a marker of learned uncertainty, and may be used as a marker of NA activity facing unfamiliar situations in humans.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 7
  • 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001985.r006
Neural responses in macaque prefrontal cortex are linked to strategic exploration
  • Jan 30, 2023
  • PLOS Biology
  • Caroline I Jahn + 8 more

Humans have been shown to strategically explore. They can identify situations in which gathering information about distant and uncertain options is beneficial for the future. Because primates rely on scarce resources when they forage, they are also thought to strategically explore, but whether they use the same strategies as humans and the neural bases of strategic exploration in monkeys are largely unknown. We designed a sequential choice task to investigate whether monkeys mobilize strategic exploration based on whether information can improve subsequent choice, but also to ask the novel question about whether monkeys adjust their exploratory choices based on the contingency between choice and information, by sometimes providing the counterfactual feedback about the unchosen option. We show that monkeys decreased their reliance on expected value when exploration could be beneficial, but this was not mediated by changes in the effect of uncertainty on choices. We found strategic exploratory signals in anterior and mid-cingulate cortex (ACC/MCC) and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC). This network was most active when a low value option was chosen, which suggests a role in counteracting expected value signals, when exploration away from value should to be considered. Such strategic exploration was abolished when the counterfactual feedback was available. Learning from counterfactual outcome was associated with the recruitment of a different circuit centered on the medial orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), where we showed that monkeys represent chosen and unchosen reward prediction errors. Overall, our study shows how ACC/MCC-dlPFC and OFC circuits together could support exploitation of available information to the fullest and drive behavior towards finding more information through exploration when it is beneficial.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 31
  • 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001985
Neural responses in macaque prefrontal cortex are linked to strategic exploration.
  • Jan 30, 2023
  • PLoS biology
  • Caroline I Jahn + 7 more

Humans have been shown to strategically explore. They can identify situations in which gathering information about distant and uncertain options is beneficial for the future. Because primates rely on scarce resources when they forage, they are also thought to strategically explore, but whether they use the same strategies as humans and the neural bases of strategic exploration in monkeys are largely unknown. We designed a sequential choice task to investigate whether monkeys mobilize strategic exploration based on whether information can improve subsequent choice, but also to ask the novel question about whether monkeys adjust their exploratory choices based on the contingency between choice and information, by sometimes providing the counterfactual feedback about the unchosen option. We show that monkeys decreased their reliance on expected value when exploration could be beneficial, but this was not mediated by changes in the effect of uncertainty on choices. We found strategic exploratory signals in anterior and mid-cingulate cortex (ACC/MCC) and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC). This network was most active when a low value option was chosen, which suggests a role in counteracting expected value signals, when exploration away from value should to be considered. Such strategic exploration was abolished when the counterfactual feedback was available. Learning from counterfactual outcome was associated with the recruitment of a different circuit centered on the medial orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), where we showed that monkeys represent chosen and unchosen reward prediction errors. Overall, our study shows how ACC/MCC-dlPFC and OFC circuits together could support exploitation of available information to the fullest and drive behavior towards finding more information through exploration when it is beneficial.

  • Preprint Article
  • 10.1101/2024.08.22.609181
Perception/action coupling in children with autism: insights from looking time and pupil dilation measurements
  • Aug 26, 2024
  • bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
  • Nicole Clavaud-Seon + 4 more

The objective of this study was to characterize, through indices extracted from eye-tracking measurements, the spontaneous distinction of videos of daily actions with a variable perception/action coupling, depending on whether, for the same action, the video was presented in the forward reading direction (strong coupling), or in the backward reading direction (weaker coupling). 17 pairs of videos of daily actions performed by adults were viewed by 36 typically developing children and 28 children with ASD aged 7-18 years. During the exposure phase, they watched two videos of the same action (forward and backward) presented successively, before looking at these two videos in competition, in a second visual preference phase. During the exposure phase, all participants paid similar general attention to each of the videos. We found greater pupillary dilation for backward than forward actions in both groups, but significantly less in the ASD group. In the visual preference phase, both groups showed significantly greater looking times for backward actions over forward ones, with no difference between groups. If TD children perceived the kinematics of the backward videos as violating their expectations given the strong perception/action coupling they had already built over that action, on the contrary, the lower increased in pupil dilation found in ASD children could reflect altered perception/action coupling. This study confirms the validity of looking time and pupil dilation as behavioral and physiological markers that could be used in a 10-mn eye-tracking test to explore perception/action coupling in childhood and in ASD.Lay summaryPeople with ASD often have difficulty understanding the actions of others. The fine understanding of actions requires a coupling between the action we observe, and its representation stored in our memory. This process might be challenged in autism. Here we used a 10-mn eye-tracking test to explore perception/action coupling in ASD. Participants were watching videos of daily actions. Looking time and pupil dilation were measured while participants watched videos of daily actions, and were found to be relevant indexes.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2025.109203
Eyes wide open: Object-scene congruency and the pupillary response.
  • Oct 1, 2025
  • Neuropsychologia
  • Annika Agrawal + 1 more

Eyes wide open: Object-scene congruency and the pupillary response.

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  • Cite Count Icon 29
  • 10.1371/journal.pone.0188787
Pre-stimulus pupil dilation and the preparatory control of attention.
  • Dec 8, 2017
  • PLOS ONE
  • Jessica L Irons + 2 more

Task preparation involves multiple component processes, including a general evaluative process that signals the need for adjustments in control, and the engagement of task-specific control settings. Here we examined the dynamics of these different mechanisms in preparing the attentional control system for visual search. We explored preparatory activity using pupil dilation, a well-established measure of task demands and effortful processing. In an initial exploratory experiment, participants were cued at the start of each trial to search for either a salient color singleton target (an easy search task) or a low-salience shape singleton target (a difficult search task). Pupil dilation was measured during the preparation period from cue onset to search display onset. Mean dilation was larger in preparation for the difficult shape target than the easy color target. In two additional experiments, we sought to vary effects of evaluative processing and task-specific preparation separately. Experiment 2 showed that when the color and shape search tasks were matched for difficulty, the shape target no longer evoked larger dilations, and the pattern of results was in fact reversed. In Experiment 3, we manipulated difficulty within a single feature dimension, and found that the difficult search task evoked larger dilations. These results suggest that pupil dilation reflects expectations of difficulty in preparation for a search task, consistent with the activity of an evaluative mechanism. We did not find consistent evidence for relationship between pupil dilation and search performance (accuracy and response timing), suggesting that pupil dilation during search preparation may not be strongly linked to ongoing task-specific preparation.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.1101/2024.07.27.605407
Evaluating phasic transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (taVNS) with pupil dilation: the importance of stimulation intensity and sensory perception
  • Jul 29, 2024
  • bioRxiv
  • Mareike Ludwig + 5 more

The efficacy of transcutaneous auricular vagus nerve stimulation (taVNS) as a non-invasive method to modulate physiological markers of noradrenergic activity of the Locus Coeruleus (LC), such as pupil dilation, is increasingly more discussed. However, taVNS studies show high heterogeneity of stimulation effects. Therefore, a taVNS setup was established here to test different frequencies (10 Hz and 25 Hz) and intensities (3 mA and 5 mA) during phasic stimulation (3 s) with time-synchronous recording of pupil dilation in younger adults. Specifically, phasic real taVNS and higher intensity led to increased pupil dilation, which is consistent with phasic invasive VNS studies in animals. The results also suggest that the influence of intensity on pupil dilation may be stronger than that of frequency. However, there was an attenuation of taVNS-induced pupil dilation when differences in perception of sensations were considered. Specifically, pupil dilation during phasic stimulation increased with perceived stimulation intensity. The extent to which the effect of taVNS induces pupil dilation and the involvement of sensory perception in the stimulation process are discussed here and require more extensive research. Additionally, it is crucial to strive for comparable stimulation sensations during systematic parameter testing in order to investigate possible effects of phasic taVNS on pupil dilation in more detail.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 19
  • 10.1038/s41598-024-72179-4
Evaluating phasic transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (taVNS) with pupil dilation: the importance of stimulation intensity and sensory perception
  • Oct 17, 2024
  • Scientific Reports
  • Mareike Ludwig + 5 more

The efficacy of transcutaneous auricular vagus nerve stimulation (taVNS) as a non-invasive method to modulate physiological markers of noradrenergic activity of the Locus Coeruleus (LC), such as pupil dilation, is increasingly more discussed. However, taVNS studies show high heterogeneity of stimulation effects. Therefore, a taVNS setup was established here to test different frequencies (10 Hz and 25 Hz) and intensities (3 mA and 5 mA) during phasic stimulation (3 s) with time-synchronous recording of pupil dilation in younger adults. Specifically, phasic real taVNS and higher intensity led to increased pupil dilation, which is consistent with phasic invasive VNS studies in animals. The results also suggest that the influence of intensity on pupil dilation may be stronger than that of frequency. However, there was an attenuation of taVNS-induced pupil dilation when differences in perception of sensations were considered. Specifically, pupil dilation during phasic stimulation increased with perceived stimulation intensity. The extent to which the effect of taVNS induces pupil dilation and the involvement of sensory perception in the stimulation process are discussed here and require more extensive research. Additionally, it is crucial to strive for comparable stimulation sensations during systematic parameter testing in order to investigate possible effects of phasic taVNS on pupil dilation in more detail.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.1017/s0033291723001307
Factual and counterfactual learning in major adolescent depressive disorder, evidence from an instrumental learning study.
  • May 10, 2023
  • Psychological Medicine
  • Qiang Shen + 13 more

The incidence of adolescent depressive disorder is globally skyrocketing in recent decades, albeit the causes and the decision deficits depression incurs has yet to be well-examined. With an instrumental learning task, the aim of the current study is to investigate the extent to which learning behavior deviates from that observed in healthy adolescent controls and track the underlying mechanistic channel for such a deviation. We recruited a group of adolescents with major depression and age-matched healthy control subjects to carry out the learning task with either gain or loss outcome and applied a reinforcement learning model that dissociates valence (positive v. negative) of reward prediction error and selection (chosen v. unchosen). The results demonstrated that adolescent depressive patients performed significantly less well than the control group. Learning rates suggested that the optimistic bias that overall characterizes healthy adolescent subjects was absent for the depressive adolescent patients. Moreover, depressed adolescents exhibited an increased pessimistic bias for the counterfactual outcome. Lastly, individual difference analysis suggested that these observed biases, which significantly deviated from that observed in normal controls, were linked with the severity of depressive symoptoms as measured by HAMD scores. By leveraging an incentivized instrumental learning task with computational modeling within a reinforcement learning framework, the current study reveals a mechanistic decision-making deficit in adolescent depressive disorder. These findings, which have implications for the identification of behavioral markers in depression, could support the clinical evaluation, including both diagnosis and prognosis of this disorder.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 3
  • 10.1016/j.cognition.2023.105468
Statistical information about reward timing is insufficient for promoting optimal persistence decisions
  • May 4, 2023
  • Cognition
  • Karolina M Lempert + 5 more

When deciding how long to keep waiting for delayed rewards that will arrive at an uncertain time, different distributions of possible reward times dictate different optimal strategies for maximizing reward. When reward timing distributions are heavy-tailed (e.g., waiting on hold) there is a point at which waiting is no longer advantageous because the opportunity cost of waiting is too high. Alternatively, when reward timing distributions have more predictable timing (e.g., uniform), it is advantageous to wait as long as necessary for the reward. Although people learn to approximate optimal strategies, little is known about how this learning occurs. One possibility is that people learn a general cognitive representation of the probability distribution that governs reward timing and then infer a strategy from that model of the environment. Another possibility is that they learn an action policy in a way that depends more narrowly on direct task experience, such that general knowledge of the reward timing distribution is insufficient for expressing the optimal strategy. Here, in a series of studies in which participants decided how long to persist for delayed rewards before quitting, we provided participants with information about the reward timing distribution in several ways. Whether the information was provided through counterfactual feedback (Study 1), previous exposure (Studies 2a and 2b), or description (Studies 3a and 3b), it did not obviate the need for direct, feedback-driven learning in a decision context. Therefore, learning when to quit waiting for delayed rewards might depend on task-specific experience, not solely on probabilistic reasoning.

  • Abstract
  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.1016/0920-9964(90)90139-x
P300 and eye movement disorder used as physiological markers in linkage studies in schizophrenia
  • Jan 1, 1990
  • Schizophrenia Research
  • D.H.R Blackwood + 2 more

P300 and eye movement disorder used as physiological markers in linkage studies in schizophrenia

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