The Spin Maneuver

Abstract

The financialization of commodity markets has recently become a broadly discussed phenomenon, but its implications for commodity investors to a large extent remain unknown. This article focuses on whether the potential benefits of passive investment strategies in the commodity futures markets are expected to continue with increased financialization of the commodity futures markets. First, a regression analysis is conducted in order to examine the correlation between financialization and the disappearance of roll yields. Second, after finding such a correlation, we assume that this correlation is driven by increased financialization, which <i>causes</i> the decline in roll yields. Third, simulation-based methods are implemented to examine the revised efficient frontiers after accounting for the potential impact of financialization on roll yields. Our empirical research is based on returns on various asset classes and other related variables over the period 1990–2012. As noted, our computations indicate that market financialization may have resulted in a decline in roll returns. This decrease in roll yields, should it continue, is of a potential magnitude such that therationale for including commodity futures in traditional stock-and-bond portfolios would be seriously undermined. <b>TOPICS:</b>Commodities, futures and forward contracts, simulations, performance measurement