The Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution Characteristics of Ship Traffic on the Arctic Northeast Passage Based on AIS Data

Abstract

Warming weather has led to melting sea ice, and increasingly complex global geopolitics has drawn more countries’ attention to the Arctic. The Arctic Northeast Passage, as an emerging route connecting Eurasia, has seen a sharp increase in vessel activity. The period from 2015 to 2020, being a stable and undisturbed data period, is of significant theoretical importance for exploring the natural development of the Arctic Northeast Passage. The study found that the research period can be divided into three stages: from 2015 to 2017, the number of vessels grew slowly. In 2018 and 2019, the number of vessels and vessel activities saw significant growth, but an unexpected reverse growth occurred in 2020. Different types of vessels have unique activity characteristics and evolutionary patterns, influenced by the Arctic’s unique geographical environment, abundant natural resources, deepening Sino-Russian cooperation, and increasing global trade supply and demand. The results of this study aim to provide policymakers with analysis based on the initial development stage of the route, offering data support for future policy formulation, route planning, and research on the navigation safety of vessels on the Arctic Northeast Passage.