The Six‐Party Talks and the Future Denuclearization and Rehabilitation of North Korea

Abstract

The Korean Six‐Party Talks that are focused on North Korea's nuclear weapons programs reveal contending interests and motives among the participating six governments. Each government has been challenged and several have had to make compromises while nevertheless protecting what they view as their core interests. The Talks are making incremental progress on the “action for action” denuclearization arrangements resulting from the September 2005, and February and October 2007 multilateral agreements. The Talks are also creating the basis for strategic changes in Northeast Asia involving the future rehabilitation of North Korea and, beyond that, possibly a new cooperative security system in the region. This article moves on to analyze three possible strategic outcomes of the Talks: (1) Complete weapons denuclearization of North Korea, a Korean Peace Treaty, the rehabilitation of North Korea, and a new security regime in the region; (2) Partial denuclearization of North Korea amidst South Korea engagement with North Korea as South Korea/US deterrence continues; (3) Breakdown of the Talks and Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea resumption of nuclear weapons production. The paper concludes with recommended policies to encourage outcome (1).