Abstract
This paper presents analyses of the development of the European electricity sector that is in line with the climate and energy targets of the European Union for 2030 and 2050. The role of energy storage and transmission under various assumptions about a) development of electric battery costs, b) transmission grid expansion restrictions, and c) the variability of future electricity demand is demonstrated. Two models are soft-linked – LIBEMOD, a multimarket energy equilibrium model of Europe, and TIMES-Europe, a bottom-up stochastic model of the European electricity and district heat sectors – to provide an analysis of the decarbonization of the electricity sector that has consistent assumptions about electricity use and fuel prices. To explicitly value flexibility, a stochastic methodology is used to ensure that investment decisions take into account different operational situations that can occur due to weather-dependent renewable generation and the uncertainty of the electricity demand. It is demonstrated that the European power sector can be decarbonised with a 65%–70% share of the electricity supply from wind power and PV in 2050. The cost-efficient investment in stationary batteries is highly dependent on technology development in PV and expansion of the international transmission grid.
Highlights
The European Union (EU) energy and climate policy aims to cut CO2 emissions in the power sector significantly by 2030 [1] and to establish a nearly carbon-free electricity sector by 2050 [2]
The paper demonstrates the strength of using a stochastic modelling approach that considers the short-term uncertainty of intermittent supply and electricity demand to provide better decision support
The deterministic approach overestimates the share of intermittent wind power, but underestimates the share of solar PV in the electricity generation mix
Summary
The European Union (EU) energy and climate policy aims to cut CO2 emissions in the power sector significantly by 2030 [1] and to establish a nearly carbon-free electricity sector by 2050 [2]. Increasing wind and solar electricity generation is considered critical to reaching these policy goals. Wind and solar power generation differ from conventional thermal power due to their intermittency; this type of renewable electricity generation is strictly weather dependent and cannot be regulated to match the electricity demand. Trade: the instantaneous mismatch between production and load in a country can be evened out through electricity trade by utilizing national differences in the electricity technology mix, as well as in weather-dependent intermittent generation. In this way, the net surplus in electricity in one country is exported to countries with a net deficit
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