The role of repowering India’s ageing wind farms in achieving net-zero ambitions

Abstract

India’s ambitious net-zero climate goals include plans for a four-fold increase in current levels of wind energy generation by 2030. Many existing wind farms in India occupy sites with the best wind resources nationally but use older, smaller turbines that achieve lower capacity factors compared to modern turbine designs. A strategy of replacing existing wind turbines with state-of-the-art models (termed repowering) could boost capacity factors and ensure maximal use of available wind resources. However, a nationwide assessment of the potential wind generation increases resulting from repowering is currently lacking for India. Here, we present the first validated synthetic wind generation dataset for India based on reanalysis data and show that full repowering of the existing fleet of wind turbines could boost capacity factors by 82% nationwide (from 0.19 to 0.35). Our assessment of attainable capacity factors under full repowering exceeds equivalent estimates within the National Electricity Plan of India and national decarbonisation pathways compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suggesting less total installed capacity is required to achieve specific generation outcomes than previously estimated. Ongoing technological progress, leading to increased turbine dimensions, will drive capacity factors beyond the levels estimated here, which could further add to the generation benefits of repowering. Yet, despite the higher average output from a repowered fleet of wind generators, substantial variability in generation across timescales persists, highlighting the increasing need for power system flexibility within a decarbonised energy system.