Abstract
BackgroundRio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified.MethodsA mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics.ResultsThe individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007.ConclusionsIf dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.
Highlights
Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016
In this paper we propose to estimate the risk of dengue for foreign visitors attending the summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro in 2016, in the period between the 30th and 32nd epidemiological week of the year
In this paper we propose a model for estimating the individual risk of dengue infection for non-immune visitors attending the 2016 Summer Olympic Games in Rio de Number of reported cases
Summary
Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games, which will take place mainly in Rio de Janeiro, to be held between August 5–21, 2016, followed by the summer Paralympics, between 7–18 September. The Olympics is expected to attract some 400,000 foreign visitors in addition to about 600,000 domestic supporters from other states of Brazil. Mass gatherings such as the Olympics are of particular public health concern as infectious diseases can rapidly affect large numbers of persons [1]. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide [3, 4], concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified.
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