Abstract
We present a Risk Atlas of Mexico City based on a Geographical Information System (RA-GIS). We identified the prevalent social risk to the more relevant hazards in Mexico City (CDMX): earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides, forest fires, and land subsidence. A total of 274 shape-file maps were generated in this project. Seismic hazard was estimated for return periods (RP) of 20, 125, 250, and 475 years. Three areas in central and northwestern CDMX were identified along the Younger Chichinautzin Monogenetic Volcanic Field with a high probability of forming a new volcano. Subsidence is concentrated to the east and southeast of CDMX, where subsidence rates are among the highest worldwide. Flooding events were estimated for RP of 2, 5, 10, 50, and 100 years, and most of them are concentrated in the central and northern sectors of the city. During the dry season (December–April), southern CDMX has very high probability of forest fire occurrence. There is high susceptibility of landslides on the west and southwest of the city. The goals of this RA-GIS are to provide a tool to the local and federal authorities and all organizations responsible for disaster prevention and mitigation to: (1) improve the knowledge of the potential physical and social impact of local hazards; (2) provide elements for disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, and response; (3) benefit decision-makers with robust risk data; (4) provide information for land-use planning; and (5) support further research to reduce the impact of disasters caused by natural phenomena.
Highlights
The reason behind Mexico City’s high level of exposure to natural phenomena lies at the core of its history
Seismic hazard in CDMX was estimated for the return periods prescribed by CENAPRED of 20, 125, 250, and 475 years
The methodology considers the following steps (Jaimes and Niño 2017): (a) characterization of the different seismic sources potentially affecting CDMX; (b) use of appropriate ground motion models depending on the types of earthquakes (Abrahamson and Silva 1997; Jaimes et al 2006, 2015; Jaimes and García-Soto 2020); (c) convolution of the response spectral ratios (Rosenblueth and Arciniega 1992) with the ground motion predictions; and (d) probability estimation of shaking intensity for the different return periods
Summary
The reason behind Mexico City’s high level of exposure to natural phenomena lies at the core of its history. Mexico City (CDMX) sits in an endorheic basin, where precipitation formed a set of interconnected lakes fed by rivers flowing from the surrounding mountains (Santoyo et al 2005; Sosa-Rodríguez 2010). CDMX was founded on the remains of the old Aztec capital. The Aztecs built their city on an island in the middle of the lake. After the Spanish conquest, the Spaniards decided to build the new capital on the ruins of the old Aztec city and began to drain and landfill the surrounding lakes. They disregarded maintenance of the system of dikes and aqueducts built by the original inhabitants to control flooding (Levi 1990; Sosa-Rodríguez 2010). After the 1607 catastrophic floods, the authorities ordered the construction of a channel to the northeast of the city to drain the lakes and to provide an outlet during heavy rains (Boyer 1975; Scaletti Cárdenas 2018)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
