The right crops in the right place for the food-energy nexus: Potential analysis on rice and wheat in Hokkaido using crop growth models

Abstract

Understanding the potential of bioenergy is crucial to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting renewable energy with higher stability than solar and wind power for the grid. Current bioenergy potential research relies on statistical agricultural data. This study uses a crop growth model (CGM) and existing crop phenological database to estimate rice and wheat production in Hokkaido under two scenarios, namely energy-and food-oriented scenarios, considering two different targets energy and/or food production, for each founds the optimal sowing season and compare results with the current utilized crop. Results also present a trade-off of food and energy when utilizing different crop varieties. A clear difference in energy potential is observed when prioritizing either food or energy production. The optimal season and crop variety differs between the two scenarios, providing important insights for policymakers and crop rotation analysts. This study clarifies that biomass energy production does not conflict with agriculture though it presents the food-energy trade-off per hectare of land depending on the crop or crop variety. Furthermore, it illustrates the importance of CGMs and environmental measurements as tools for determining food and biomass energy potential accelerating the achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals.