The relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation change in North China

Abstract

Using SPOT-VEGETATION Normal Difference Vegetation Index (SPOT/NDVI) data from 1998 to 2011 and climate data obtained from 223 weather stations in or near North China, vegetation variation characteristics within North China were analyzed. Vegetation variation characteristics under the influence of climate variations and human activities were distinguished through a residual analysis. Based on the results of that analysis, the relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation variation were calculated. The results showed that NDVI observed by remote sensing (SPOT/NDVI) increased from 1998 to 2011. The relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation increase were 30.82% and 69.18%, respectively, indicating that human activities played a major role. And observed NDVI showed an increasing trend for different land cover types overall. While NDVI increase in shrub was mainly caused by climate variations, NDVI increases in forest, grassland, farmland, deserts and urban were all primarily caused by human activities. For areas with increasing vegetation, as identified by remote sensing observations in North China, the relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation change were calculated at 14.85% and 85.15% respectively, again indicating that human activities played an important role in vegetation increase. For areas of decreasing vegetation, as identified by remote sensing observations in North China, the relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation change were calculated at 87.72% and 12.28% respectively, indicating that climate variations had large negative effects on vegetation condition. In addition, the relative roles of climate variations and human activities on vegetation variation have obvious spatial differences in North China. Human activities played a positive role in vegetation growth in North China. However, we cannot ignore the function of human destruction on vegetation variation in some areas.