Abstract
The important Global Trends report of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) orchestrates four “Megatrends,” six problem-area “Game-Changers,” eight “Black Swan” wild cards, and four “Alternative World” scenarios. An abstract of this framework for thinking about the future is provided here, followed by critical comments on “black swan downsizing” of the all-important climate change threat, and other NIC problems of selective perception and distorted priorities.
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