Abstract
Objective: This paper aims to project the probability of using an aged care home over a lifetime for Australian men and women at various ages.Method: This paper applies life table models [1] to 1999–00 residential aged care data to estimate the probability of using an aged care home over a lifetime. Results: Women are more likely than men to enter an aged care home for permanent care over their lifetime. Based on current patterns of use of aged care homes, a woman at age 65 faces a probability as high as 0.46 of using an aged care home for permanent care before her death compared with 0.28 for a man at the same age.Conclusion: A much larger proportion of older people than has often been recognised are likely to be admitted to an aged care home at some point in their lives.
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