Abstract
Within the last year, two earthquakes in the United States—one in New York and the other in California—have been successfully predicted on the basis of variations in seismic wave travel time. Recent studies revealed that two shocks in central California could have been predicted by similar methods. In addition, tiltmeters operating in central California since May 1973 have shown premonitory tilting for at least 10 earthquakes that occurred near an instrument.Although these seismic wave travel time and tilt precursors were observed for small and moderate earthquakes, magnitude 5 or less, earlier results of a similar nature are on record from the Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States for larger earthquakes, including the shock near San Fernando, California, in 1971. The dilatancy‐fluid diffusion theory has been developed to account for the observations. An earthquake prediction capability is apparently not far away.
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