Abstract
Numerical models are operationally used for weather forecasting activities to reduce the risks of several hydro-meteorological disasters. The overarching goal of this work is to evaluate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictive capabilities over the Italian national territory in the year 2018, in two specific cloud resolving configurations. The validation is carried out with a fuzzy logic approach, by comparing the precipitation predicted by the WRF model, and the precipitation observed by the national network. The fuzzy logic technique, by considering different intensity thresholds, allows to identify the reliable spatial scales of the forecasts. The same approach is applied to evaluate the performances of COSMO-2I model, a state-of-the-art numerical model configuration used for operational activities. For the entire year, except for summer, the model predictive capabilities are high, with useful forecasts for structures of medium intensities down to O(10 km) length scales. In summer the skills decrease mainly because of localization errors. The work aims to provide a robust evaluation of the forecast performances of another convection permitting operational meteorological models currently available in Italy.
Highlights
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) represents a fundamental component of the Civil Protection system and aims to forecast the triggering factors of most natural disasters
The validation is carried out with a fuzzy logic approach, by comparing the precipitation predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and the precipitation observed by the national network
The analysis of the Fractions Skill Score (FSS), False Alarm Ratio (FAR) and Probability Of Detection (POD) scores on a seasonal basis provides a deep insight on the model predictive capability for the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) field: a good QPF performance corresponds to high values of FSS, high POD values and low FAR values
Summary
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) represents a fundamental component of the Civil Protection system and aims to forecast the triggering factors of most natural disasters In this way, the monitoring phase of the weather and ground-related phenomena, and the alert phase of the different Civil Protection system actors can be timely activated (Ferraris et al 2002). (2021) 2:3 relevant during the emergency management, especially when the meteorological phenomena represent the main ingredients and forcing (Llasat et al 2010a). In this phase, NWP is important to quantify the human and technical resources needed to manage the event spatiotemporal evolution, and its hydro-meteorological impacts. NWP is very important in determining if and when a given hydro-meteorological emergency phase can be closed
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