The potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) in Africa and Europe—A dynamic assessment of technology development, cost development and life cycle inventories until 2050

Abstract

Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants are one of several renewable energy technologies with significant potential to meet a part of future energy demand. An integrated technology assessment shows that CSP plants could play a promising role in Africa and Europe, helping to reach ambitious climate protection goals. Based on the analysis of driving forces and barriers, at first three future envisaged technology scenarios are developed. Depending on the underlying assumptions, an installed capacity of 120 GW el, 405 GW el or even 1,000 GW el could be reached globally in 2050. In the latter case, CSP would then meet 13–15% of global electricity demand. Depending on these scenarios, cost reduction curves for North Africa and Europe are derived. The cost assessment conducted for two virtual sites in Algeria and in Spain shows a long-term reduction of electricity generating costs to figures between 4 and 6 ct/kWh el in 2050. The paper concludes with an ecological analysis based on life cycle assessment. Although the greenhouse gas emissions of current (solar only operated) CSP systems show a good performance (31 g CO 2-equivalents/kWh el) compared with advanced fossil-fired systems (130–900 CO 2-eq./kWh el), they could further be reduced to 18 g CO 2-eq./kWh el in 2050, including transmission from North Africa to Europe.