Abstract
This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 °C. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5 °C mitigation are limited in their ability to analyse the emergence of novelty in energy end-use. Second, we introduce concepts of disruptive innovation which can be usefully applied to the challenge of 1.5 °C mitigation. Disruptive low-carbon innovations offer novel value propositions to consumers and can transform markets for energy-related goods and services while reducing emissions. Third, we identify 99 potentially disruptive low-carbon innovations relating to mobility, food, buildings and cities, and energy supply and distribution. Examples at the fringes of current markets include car clubs, mobility-as-a-service, prefabricated high-efficiency retrofits, internet of things, and urban farming. Each of these offers an alternative to mainstream consumer practices. Fourth, we assess the potential emission reductions from subsets of these disruptive low-carbon innovations using two methods: a survey eliciting experts’ perceptions and a quantitative scaling-up of evidence from early-adopting niches to matched segments of the UK population. We conclude that disruptive low-carbon innovations which appeal to consumers can help efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C.
Highlights
This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 °C
We conclude that disruptive low-carbon innovations which appeal to consumers can help efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C
The potential disruptive lowcarbon innovation’ (DLCI) identified in the literature survey were grouped and organised into a final set of 99
Summary
This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Disruptive low-carbon innovations offer novel value propositions to consumers and can transform markets for energy-related goods and services while reducing emissions. IAMs provide a unique analytical bridge between global mean temperature rise, cumulative emission budgets, and detailed representations of energysystem transformation In this way, they enable technology, cost and policy assessments of transformation pathways consistent with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Several ‘robust’ features of these pathways were consistently identified by the IAMs as integral to a 2 °C future: (1) The energy supply rapidly decarbonises, including large-scale deployment of biomass with carbon capture and storage (bioCCS) as a negative emission technology; (2) energy end-use rapidly and pervasively electrifies, and economies continue to become ever-more efficient; and (3) delaying concerted global action increases costs and increases the difficulty of meeting the 2 °C target
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