The population structure of the Amish, a rapidly growing ethnic religion in North America

In the present report, we continue to look how fertility rates and infant mortality rates may help explain global population trends. In summary, fertility rates in Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean have been declining by quite a lot, which explains the decline in births in those regions. On the other hand, fertility rates increased recently in North America and Europe, which explains the increases in births there. Finally, Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest fertility rate, and consequently the highest number of births. However, the fertility rates in Sub-Saharan Africa have been declining. So while the number of births continue to increase, it is increasing at a slower rate. Infant mortality rates (IMR) declined in all regions but the rate of decline varied considerably. IMR was very high in Sub-Saharan Africa, declined the least, and by 2005-2010 was the highest of anywhere. IMR was the lowest in Europe and North America, declined substantially, and was still the lowest in 2005-2010. IMR also declined substantially in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and North Africa, and, by 2005-2010, were generally at levels comparable to Europe and North America in the 1950s. Because IMR was high and didn't decline by much in Sub-Saharan Africa, the fertility rate didn't contribute as much to population as it would have if the IMR had been lower. That is, the highest world population growth is in Sub-Saharan Africa (see the first report), but if IMR in Sub-Saharan Africa had been lower, the population growth would have been even higher. Fertility rates are declining in Sub-Saharan Africa, but so are infant mortality rates, and so if the IMR declines faster than does the fertility rate then declining fertility rates will not result in lower numbers of infants and children.

The research described in this paper involved the development of a computer program designed to simulate population growth and migration patterns among hunter-gatherers, especially with respect to the Arctic. The program, which handles up to 200 discreet geographical locations, each with its own particular demographic and environmental characteristics, begins with an initial population and its vital statistics and simulates the events that occur through time. The fertility and mortality rates used in the simulations were those of modern and former Eskimo populations and other anthropological populations. The program was run under five different conditions. Condition 1 included high mortality and fertility rates and no female infanticide and resulted in extinction with little population dispersion. Condition 2, a situation of low mortality and high fertility with no infanticide, resulted in the occupation of nearly the entire Arctic in 1300 years. Condition 3 included the same mortality and fertility rates as condition 2, with the incorporation of a 30% rate of female infanticide. Under this condition, the population declined very slowly, while migration proceeded to some extent. Condition 4 represented a situation of very high fertility and mortality with 30% female infanticide and resulted in relatively rapid growth and migration rates. Condition 5, which incorporated the same high fertility and infanticide rates as condition 4 and lower mortality rates, produced very rapid population growth and migration. Key words: computer simulation, demography, Eskimos, female infanticide, fertility, paleodemography

1. Introduction The analysed and presented cartographic data on total fertility rates, birth rates, life expectancy, the percentage share of over 65 year olds, the infant mortality rates and adolescent-specific fertility rates from 2011 are the image of an aging European population with higher values of life expectancy, the number of which decreases, based on the natural movement. The epithet Old Continent can now rightfully refer to Europe even from the standpoint of the population, i.e. its average age. Unfavourable economic situation, linked to the transition from the state to a market economy, respectively the privatization of state enterprises, after the fall of communism, had a significant influence on the unfavourable demographic situation. The data for Serbia were obtained from the Statistical Office, for Russia from the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, and for other European countries from the following sites: www.ined.fr,http://data.worldbank.org, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu, http://knoema.com/atlas. The aim of this paper is to point out the differences of demographic trends in former communist countries Serbia and Russia compared with other European countries with different political systems, in 2011. The demographic trends in other former communist countries (all former Yugoslav and Soviet republics) were similar. The fall of communism has affected all spheres of life of the inhabitants of the former communist states, but without doubt that influence, even after two decades, is reflected in the shaping of contemporary demographic trends. The total fertility rate in only three European countries has a value that is higher than 2.1[per thousand], that is, the expanded reproduction of the population is provided only in Turkey, Ireland and Iceland, while the lowest value of 1.21[per thousand] was recorded in Hungary. The same complicated situation we can see in Russia, where this rate is 1.5%. Natural population growth is negative in 16 European countries. Life expectancy has increased in all countries, with significant difference between Western and Eastern Europe. The increasing share of population older than 65 years is present in most countries of Europe. The fertility of the youngest fertile contingent of 15 to 19 years has declined due to change in the age birth model and increase in the average age of women at first birth. Infant mortality rates also decline in most countries, thanks to the improvement and advancement of health protection. While on the one hand, in most countries, an increase is recorded in life expectancy and the share of the elderly, on the other hand, the decrease is recorded in total fertility rates, the decline in natural population growth and fertility of female adolescents and infant mortality rates. These processes have influenced the change in the demographic image of Europe, with significant differences at the country level, according to the economic, ecological, cultural, religious and other influences. Demographic trends in Serbia, as one of the former Yugoslav republics, do not lag behind Europe. Serbia has recently recorded a constant population decline, and comparing the data from the 2011 census with previous census in 2002, a town of 311 139 inhabitants disappeared. The total fertility rate is 1.41, which is insufficient for the expanded reproduction of the population. With the reduction in fertility, an increase in the share of the population older than 65 years is recorded, as well as an increase in life expectancy. In this sense, there is a change in the balance of the old and the number of the active population and the increasing burden on the social fund. The fertility rate of adolescent girls in Serbia has a downward trend, as well as the infant mortality rates. The modern situation in Russia, as one of the former Soviet republics, is connected with two main current trends: stable increase of the level of birth rate and migration of foreign population. …

EP3.4, e-Poster Terminal 3, September 4, 2025, 11:35 - 13:00AimsTo analyse trends in total fertility rate, in infant mortality rate and in under-five mortality rate in the native and immigrant population residing in Spain.MethodsWe used data from the Statistical Bulletin of Births, the Statistical Bulletin of Deaths and the Population Registry Data for the years 2009 to 2022. Total fertility rates, specific birth rates by maternal age, infant mortality rates and under-five mortality rates in the native and immigrant population residing in Spain were calculated and changes over time in both population groups were evaluated.ResultsA progressive decrease in birth rates has been observed in Spain, this decrease in births has been continuous in the case of births to native mothers, while in the case of births to foreign-born mothers there is also a slight decrease, but from 2020 there is an increase in the total fertility rates (27.7 vs 56.4 births per thousand women aged 15-49 in 2022). On the other hand, when analysing infant and under-five mortality rates, it has been observed that throughout this period, infant mortality rates and under-five mortality rates have been higher in children born to native mothers.ConclusionsIn Spain there is concern about the low birth rate of its population, and this study shows that total fertility rates are higher in the immigrant population. However, it has been found that infant and under-five mortality rates are higher in native children. These results highlight the paradox of the healthy migrant with younger mothers.

Infant and fetal mortality among a high fertility and mortality population in the Bolivian Amazon

The demographic transition consists of the substitution of slow population growth, achieved with high fertility and mortality rates, for sustained slow growth with relatively low fertility and mortality rates. Most nations follow remarkably similar evolutionary trajectories in the last 70 years. A universal demographic transition toward population aging is evident. Chile has shown an outstanding health situation in Latin America mostly due to the delivery of strong health services that had favored mortality and fertility declines. Specific measures are presented. At the beginning of the 20th century, the infant mortality rate (IMR) was very high and did not improve; between 1924 and 1936 it remained stable hovering around 220. It declined in close association with the expansion of public primary health care between 1937 and 1950. Births whose deliveries were attended by professionals reached universal coverage in 1990, associated with the foundation of the National Health Service in 1952. IMR in year 2024 is 6.2. Family planning policy began in 1966 aiming to reduce the high maternal mortality figure. Fertility has declined considerably: the fecundity rate was 5.4 children per woman in 1960-65 while in 1990-1995 reached a figure of 2.1. Moreover, in 2024 it has fallen to 1.03 children per woman, representing one of the lowest rates in the world. The last public policy that has attempted to increase fertility was begun in 2011: it increased maternity leave from 12 to 24 weeks postpartum. It has been associated with an increase in the duration of breastfeeding but has not been associated with an increase in fertility. Instead, the decline of the total fertility rate and the incorporation of women to the workforce were associated and deserves new social policies. The Chilean population is aging and new proposals to confront this situation are needed.

India a country noted for the persistence of high fertility despite very early development of population programs has been undergoing a marked fertility reduction since the 1970s. The total fertility rate of 3.4 in the early 1990s was not far above the world average. The fertility decline is generalized but its extent varies greatly in different regions. The 1990-92 total fertility rates in Goa and Kerala were 2 or under vs. 4.8 in Uttar Pradesh. Indias total fertility rate apparently fluctuated at around 6 from the late 19th century until nearly 1970. The total fertility rate was estimated at about 5 in 1971 about 4 at 15 years later and at 3.4 for 1990-92 according to the National Family Health Survey. Even states with the highest current fertility such as Uttar Pradesh have had significant declines in the past 2 decades. Changes in age specific fertility rates have been strongest in the higher age cohorts while fertility among younger women remains high. A strict formulation of the theory of demographic transition views fertility decline as a response to mortality decline. All mortality indicators have been declining in India during this century. Life expectancy at birth increased from 23 years in 1911 to 57 in 1991. The infant mortality rate was 96/1000 in 1991 for India as a whole and ranged from 15/1000 in Mizoram to 112 in Orissa. Although mortality began to decline before fertility did the interaction does not appear to have been strong at the level of the individual states which have the most complete data. Residential educational and religious fertility differentials like geographic differentials are marked. The 1990-91 total fertility rate was 2.70 in urban areas 3.67 in rural areas 4.03 for illiterate women 2.15 for those with secondary or higher education 3.30 for Hindus 4.41 for Muslims 2.87 for Christians and 2.43 for Sikhs. Educational attainment explains fertility differentials between states better than does mortality. 72% of the variance in the average number of children in different states in the late 1980s is explained by the literacy rate vs. 60% explained by the infant mortality rate. Some 41% of Indian women 13-49 years old use a contraceptive method. Usage is concentrated among older women among whom female sterilization is the most used method.

The changing demographics of Australia over the last 30 years.

The Demographic Transition (DT) is known as the historical process from high fertility and mortality in preindustrial society to low fertility and mortality in postindustrial society. At first, it is being observed in Western countries but shortly after World War II, Japan is the first country in Asia presenting demographic transition (DT). Nowadays, this process can be found in many other countries of the world. In this chapter, the classical Demographic Transition (DT) and Second Demographic Transition (SDT) are reexamined. And the reasons of why the elucidation of causality to promote demographic transition has been not successful until today are analyzed. Based on these reconsiderations, Japan’s Demographic Transition (JDT) is observed by using historical data, such as total population, Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Crude Death Rate (CDR), Natural Growth Rate (NGR), and the historical process of JDT is clarified in compare with DT and SDT. In addition, using Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Life Expectancy (LE), and Net Reproduction Rate (NRR), the basic causalities to promote the process are analyzed and finally, a causal model of JDT is postulated.KeywordsThe demographic transition (DT)The second demographic transition (SDT)Japan’s demographic transition (JDT)Crude birth rate (CBR)Crude death rate (CDR)Natural growth rate (NGR)Total fertility rate (TFR)Life expectancy (LE) and net reproduction rate (NRR)Causal modelThe proximate determinants and the background determinantsDavis and BlakeBongaarts

What is the likelihood that each of the 37 developing countries with populations of 15 million or more in 1990 will reach replacement fertility by the year 2015? These countries have a combined population of 3.9 billion, 91 percent of the population of all developing countries. For this article, a composite index was used as the basis for predicting future levels of total fertility. The index was constructed from socioeconomic variables (life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rates, percent adult literacy, ratio of children enrolled in primary or secondary school, percent of the labor force in nonagricultural occupations, gross national product per capita, and percent of the population living in urban areas), total fertility rates for the years 1985-90, total fertility rate decline from 1960-65 to 1985-90, family planning program effort scores in 1989, and the level of contraceptive prevalence in 1990. Eight countries are classified as certain to reach replacement fertility by 2015, and an additional thirteen probably will also. Five countries are classified as possibly reaching replacement fertility, and eleven as unlikely to do so.

SUMMARY Data on 127 countries from the World Development Report (1993) are examined with respect to associations between the total fertility rate (TFR), infant mortality rate, life expectancy, female primary education, GNP and domestic water supply. A marked negative association between quantity of domestic water and the total fertility rate, independent of infant mortality, GNP and women's education, was found. However, water was not significantly associated with infant mortality, after controlling for CNP, female education and TFR. Further research at the micro- (community and individual) and macro-level is suggested to understand why and how water plays such an important role in TFR. At the same time, development policies and programmes need to give high priority to the domestic water supply at community as well as national levels.

As a continent with 54 independent states Africa’s diversity is often highlighted but frequently forgotten when fertility is discussed. Fifty and more years ago to consider that all African countries and societies had a single fertility pattern (large numbers of children) and single trend (unchanging over time) was a valid characterization. Since the 1960s however that uniformity has disappeared replaced by substantial inter- and intra-country differences in fertility patterns and trends that render previous perceptions of continent-wide homogeneity obsolete. In this chapter we consider two African countries—Ghana and Kenya—whose fertility patterns and trends and their determinants have been well documented (Bongaarts 2008; Garenne 2008; Machiyama 2010; Shapiro and Gebreselassie 2008; Sneeringer 2009). Both countries have benefited from regularWorld Fertility Surveys (WFS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) that record trends in fertility family planning (FP) and other relevant indicators. The recently introduced Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 (PMA2020) surveys monitor progress since 2012 for the FP2020 initiative and occasional Situation Analysis and Service Provision Assessment surveys have also detailed the readiness of the health system in both countries to make quality FP services available. Ghana and Kenya share some common history: both have relatively strong health system legacies from the period of British colonialization; both were among the earliest countries to achieve independence; they were the first two African countries that developed policies to address population growth in the 1960s; and both have received substantial and sustained resources over several decades from many external donors and technical assistance organizations explicitly intended to increase the availability and quality of family planning services. However they are composed of cultures that are both diverse within each country and markedly different in many ways between the two countries. The two countries demonstrate remarkably different pathways in fertility and family planning patterns and trends from the 1970s to the present. We highlight some of the key differences and similarities explain why they have occurred and identify insights that could inform a wider understanding of fertility transitions and the role of family planning in other African countries. (excerpt)

The objective of the study was to examine whether cold climate is associated with poorer health in diverse Arctic populations. With climate change increasingly affecting the Arctic, the association between climate and population health status is of public health significance. The mean January and July temperatures were determined for 27 Arctic regions based on weather station data for the period 1961-1990 and their association with a variety of health outcomes assessed by correlation and multiple linear regression analyses. Mean January temperature was inversely associated with infant and perinatal mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate from respiratory diseases, and age-specific fertility rate for teens and directly associated with life expectancy at birth in both males and females, independent of a variety of socioeconomic, demographic, and health care factors. Mean July temperature was also associated with infant mortality and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with total fertility rate. For every 10 degrees C increase in mean January temperature, the life expectancy at birth among males increased by about 6 years and infant mortality rate decreased by about 4 deaths/1,000 livebirths. Cold climate is significantly associated with higher mortality and fertility in Arctic populations and should be recognized in public health planning.

The relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and infant mortality rate (IMR) in 1984, 1988 and 1991 for all countries was analyzed, using world Population Data Sheet published by the United Nations. The results indicated that no relationship existed between TFR and IMR in each of the years for the countries whose IMR was 100 and over, although the strong positive correlation was found between them for countries whose IMR was less than 100. The changes of TFR and IMR between the respective years were compared for the countries whose IMR was 100 and over in 1984. For all these countries, the proportions of countries which TFR and IMR decreased were 40% in 1984-1988, 45% in 1988-1991 and 49% in 1984-1991, respectively. Meanwhile, those which IMR decreased and TFR increased were 23% in 1984-1988, 26% in 1988-1991 and 27% in 1984-1991, respectively. Furthermore, 77% of the countries whose IMR was 100 and over in 1984 decreased in IMR until 1988. Among those, 54% decreased in TFR until 1991, while 46% did not. The results show that TFR does not necessarily follow the decline of IMR for the high-IMR-countries.

SummaryBackgroundPrevious Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) studies have reported national health estimates for Ethiopia. Substantial regional variations in socioeconomic status, population, demography, and access to health care within Ethiopia require comparable estimates at the subnational level. The GBD 2019 Ethiopia subnational analysis aimed to measure the progress and disparities in health across nine regions and two chartered cities.MethodsWe gathered 1057 distinct data sources for Ethiopia and all regions and cities that included census, demographic surveillance, household surveys, disease registry, health service use, disease notifications, and other data for this analysis. Using all available data sources, we estimated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), total fertility rate (TFR), life expectancy, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk-factor-attributable health loss with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for Ethiopia's nine regions and two chartered cities from 1990 to 2019. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, cause of death ensemble model, Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, and other models were used to generate fertility, mortality, cause of death, and disability rates. The risk factor attribution estimations followed the general framework established for comparative risk assessment.FindingsThe SDI steadily improved in all regions and cities from 1990 to 2019, yet the disparity between the highest and lowest SDI increased by 54% during that period. The TFR declined from 6·91 (95% UI 6·59–7·20) in 1990 to 4·43 (4·01–4·92) in 2019, but the magnitude of decline also varied substantially among regions and cities. In 2019, TFR ranged from 6·41 (5·96–6·86) in Somali to 1·50 (1·26–1·80) in Addis Ababa. Life expectancy improved in Ethiopia by 21·93 years (21·79–22·07), from 46·91 years (45·71–48·11) in 1990 to 68·84 years (67·51–70·18) in 2019. Addis Ababa had the highest life expectancy at 70·86 years (68·91–72·65) in 2019; Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz had the lowest at 63·74 years (61·53–66·01) for Afar and 64.28 (61.99-66.63) for Benishangul-Gumuz. The overall increases in life expectancy were driven by declines in under-5 mortality and mortality from common infectious diseases, nutritional deficiency, and war and conflict. In 2019, the age-standardised all-cause death rate was the highest in Afar at 1353·38 per 100 000 population (1195·69–1526·19). The leading causes of premature mortality for all sexes in Ethiopia in 2019 were neonatal disorders, diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, stroke, HIV/AIDS, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, congenital defects, and diabetes. With high SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, and Harari had low rates of premature mortality from the five leading causes, whereas regions with low SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes (Afar and Somali) had high rates of premature mortality from the leading causes. In 2019, child and maternal malnutrition; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; air pollution; high systolic blood pressure; alcohol use; and high fasting plasma glucose were the leading risk factors for health loss across regions and cities.InterpretationThere were substantial improvements in health over the past three decades across regions and chartered cities in Ethiopia. However, the progress, measured in SDI, life expectancy, TFR, premature mortality, disability, and risk factors, was not uniform. Federal and regional health policy makers should match strategies, resources, and interventions to disease burden and risk factors across regions and cities to achieve national and regional plans, Sustainable Development Goals, and universal health coverage targets.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.