The PM2.5-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon behavior in indoor and outdoor environments, part II: Explainable prediction of benzo[a]pyrene levels

Abstract

Among the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) has been considered more relevant than other species when estimating the potential exposure-related health effects and has been recognized as a marker of carcinogenic potency of air pollutant mixture. The current understanding of the factors which govern non-linear behavior of B[a]P and associated pollutants and environmental processes is insufficient and further research has to rely on the advanced analytical approach which averts the assumptions and avoids simplifications required by linear modeling methods. For the purpose of this study, we employed eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) attribution method, and SHAP value fuzzy clustering to investigate the concentrations of inorganic gaseous pollutants, radon, PM2.5 and particle constituents including trace metals, ions, 16 US EPA priority PM2.5-bound PAHs and 31 meteorological variables, as key factors which shape indoor and outdoor PM2.5-bound B[a]P distribution in a university building located in the urban area of Belgrade (Serbia). According to the results, the indoor and outdoor B[a]P levels were shown to be highly correlated and mostly influenced by the concentrations of Chry, B[b]F, CO, B[a]A, I[cd]P, B[k]F, Flt, D[ah]A, Pyr, B[ghi]P, Cr, As, and PM2.5 in both indoor and outdoor environments. Besides, high B[a]P concentration events were recorded during the periods of low ambient temperature (<12 °C), unstable weather conditions with precipitation and increased soil humidity.