Abstract
The panic surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic has collapsed world economic systems. Thailand is no exception. Evidently, domestic-industrial activities in many countries have nearly stopped, and international sectors have abruptly disintegrated. Unemployment has become critical, and business viability has run into trouble. This article illustrates the potential solutions to these issues linked to Thailand’s domestic and international-trade economies by econometrically applying sectoral forecasting analyses and simulations because the pandemic has not only caused physical damage, but also a negative chain in worldwide economic systems. Methodologically, dynamic input-output (I-O) analysis is circumspectly employed to obtain foresight on some predominantly industrial sectors that could potentially rescue the Thai domestic economy from the depression of 2020–2022. The I-O tables are sourced from official data of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). For the international-trade scenario, the agent-based model and simulations are used to forecast the future trends of macroeconomic responses. The two methods, dynamic I-O models and agent-based simulations, are the current means capable of sensibly predicting macroeconomic responses for monitoring the upcoming years. The empirical outcomes can clearly predict upcoming events that will be beneficial for policy implementations.
Highlights
For metal industries, which are the main production in the Thai economy containing 17.20% as a multiplier effect, more than a 500% depression in the total output is indicated as a $1,491.24 million reduction
This article was an attempt to search for an urgent solution to save the Thai economy from the impact of COVID-19
In terms of domestic and international economics sectors, outcomes trended on the negative side
Summary
This fact is the inspiration for this article to begin a practical academic investigation from a macroeconomic perspective regarding the “new-normal” world. Recessions are signs that economists can use to beneficially gain critical knowledge. The way to completely prevent negative impacts from economic depressions is elusive, it is still worth studying, for the current generation, and for how humankind can survive in the chaotic world of the future. In dynamically estimating the macroeconomic system of the Thai economy using input-output (I-O) analysis, this article helps predict a simulated agent model for displaying structural responses in an international macro economy. Results and critical discussions are expected to be useful suggestions inspiring academic researchers and political authorities to urgently find an equitable solution
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