The negative spillover impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Hong Kong diabetes patients' mortality and cardiovascular disease.

Abstract

The spillover impact from disrupted healthcare services for non-COVID-infected diabetes mellitus (DM) patients caused by the reshuffling of the manpower during the pandemic remains understudied, especially in Hong Kong where healthcare resources were already strained before the pandemic. To evaluate the spill-over effect of the Pandemic on Hong Kong diabetes patients, we examined the change in all-cause mortality and the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) from 2012 to 2021. This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from Hong Kong Hospital Authority healthcare records covering all publicly provided care. Adults diagnosed with DM on/before December 31, 2010, without CVD before January 2012 were included. The 2016-2019 average all-cause mortality and the incidence of CVD after age-standardization represented the pre-pandemic levels. Subjects would leave the cohort after being infected with COVID-19. A cohort of 159,693 patients with diabetes was identified and followed up for 10 years from January 2012 to December 2021. Compared to the pre-pandemic levels, 2020 saw a 12% increase in age-standardized mortality per 10,000 diabetic patients (incidence rate ratio [95% CI]: 1.12 [1.10 - 1.14]), but no significant change in age-standardized CVD incidence. However, in 2021, there were 11% (1.11[1.10 - 1.13]) and 13% (1.13 [1.11 - 1.15]) more new CVD cases and deaths, respectively, versus the pre-pandemic period. The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 had negative spillover impacts on DM patients without COVID-19 in Hong Kong, with a higher mortality in 2020 and 2021 compared with the pre-pandemic level.