The multiscale factors favorable for a persistent heavy rain event over Hainan Island in October 2010

Abstract

A case study is presented of the multiscale characteristics that produced the record-breaking persistent heavy rainfall event (PHRE) over Hainan Island, northern South China Sea (SCS), in autumn 2010. The study documents several key weather systems, from planetary scale to mesoscale, that contributed to the extreme rainfall during this event. The main findings of this study are as follows. First, the convectively active phase of the MJO was favorable for the establishment of a cyclonic circulation and the northward expansion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The active disturbances in the northward ITCZ helped direct abundant moisture from adjacent oceans towards Hainan Island continuously throughout the event, where it interacted with cold air from the midlatitudes and caused heavy rain. Second, the 8-day-long PHRE can be divided into three processes according to different synoptic systems: peripheral cloud clusters of a tropical depression-type disturbance over the central SCS in process 1; interactions between the abnormally far north ITCZ and the invading cold air in process 2; and the newly formed tropical depression near Hainan Island in process 3. In the relatively stable synoptic background of each process, meso-α- and meso-β-scale cloud clusters repeatedly traveled along the same path to Hainan Island. Finally, based on these analyses, a conceptual model is proposed for this type of PHRE in autumn over the northern SCS, which demonstrates the influences of multiscale systems.