The multi-period reserve design problem under climate change

Abstract

Climate change causes range shifts of species and habitats, thus making existing reserve networks less suitable in the future. Existing optimisation procedures hence need to be adapted in order to account for changes in the spatial distribution of habitat types as well as their relative occurrence. We develop a multi-objective optimisation procedure that considers these dynamic changes. We demonstrate the functioning of the model by applying it to a conceptual case study. In this case study, we aim to gain an understanding of the consequences of not adapting the reserve network despite climate change and the optimal adaptation pathways for different funding levels. Finally, we consider whether larger flexibility in terms of when to adapt the reserve network by providing a one-off discounted payment instead of regular payment improves the outcome achieved. We find that the optimisation procedure is suitable to identify adaptation pathways as the outcome is improved, especially for habitat types that become increasingly threatened. Initially providing a one-off discounted payment instead of regular payments leads to higher habitat protection. In order to facilitate future research, we provide the code of the optimisation on request.