The market dynamics of military conflict: financial returns and strategic considerations in the global arms industry

This study aims to find the reaction of capital markets in ASEAN member countries due to the emergence of war between Russia and Ukraine by comparing the values of abnormal returns, cumulative abnormal returns and trading volume activity before and after the Russian attack on Ukraine. This research is an event study research. Event study was developed to analyze market reaction to an event whose information is published. The event used in this study is the market shock condition from the war between Russia and Ukraine. The observation period uses the event window, which is 14 trading days before and after the Russian attack on Ukraine. The analytical tools used in this study were descriptive statistics, normality tests and different tests using the Paired Sample t-Test or the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The results of the first stage of different tests show that overall there was no capital market reaction in ASEAN member countries as seen from the values of abnormal returns, cumulative abnormal returns and trading volume activity at the time of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The results of the second stage of the different test show that the reaction of the capital market seen from the abnormal return value can be seen that the capital market in Cambodia reacted at the time of the war between Russia and Ukraine, from the cumulative abnormal return value, the capital markets in all ASEAN member countries did not react to war incidents.

Researchers in various business disciplines use the event study methodology to assess the market value of firms through capital market reaction to news in the public media about the firm's activities. Capital market reaction is assessed based on cumulative abnormal return (sum of abnormal returns over the event window). In this study, the event study methodology is used to assess the impact that two important information technology activities, Internet security breach and ecommerce initiative, have on the market value of firms. While prior research on the relationship between these business activities and cumulative abnormal return involved the use of regression analysis, in this study, we use decision tree induction and regression.For the Internet security breach study, we use negative cumulative abnormal return as a surrogate for damage to the breached firm. In contrast to what has been reported in the research literature, our results suggest that the relationship between cumulative abnormal return and the independent variables for both the Internet security breach and ecommerce initiative studies is complex, often involving conditional interactions between the independent variables. We report that the incomplete contract theory is unable to effectively explain the relationship between cumulative abnormal return and the organizational variables. Other ecommerce theories provide support to the findings from our analysis. We show that both attack and firm characteristics are determinants of damage to breached firms.Our results revealed that the use of decision tree induction presents additional insight to that provided by regression models. We illustrate that there is value in using data mining techniques to study the market value of e-commerce initiative and Internet security breach and that this approach has applicability in other domains and that Decision Tree can enhance the event study methodology.We demonstrate that Decision Tree induction can be used for both theory building and theory testing. We specifically employ Decision Tree induction to test and enhance ecommerce theories and develop a theoretical model for cumulative abnormal return and ecommerce. We also present theoretical models for Internet security breach and damage to the breached firm. These models can be used by decision makers in Internet security and ecommerce investments strategic formulations and implementations.

From 1998, China’s stock exchanges had classified listed companies as “Special Treatment” (ST) companies when these companies were involved in financial distress for the defined period. Principally, this study investigate that volatility the cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) before ST event, and interpret what factors will affect CAR. Using logistic regression constructs a financial distress prediction model to acquire distress probability. Furthermore, this paper explores pre-disclosure information (PDI) in advanced CAR regression model instead of traditional financial indexes. The main results indicate that the most obvious observation date of firms’ CAR is from pre 20 days relative to ST event, and both distress probability and proxy indicator for PDI are signifying in the model.

Purpose: The primary aim of the paper was to find out the non-linear relationship between ownership structure and the Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) of companies listed on the Muscat Stock Exchange (MSE) from 2013 to 2020. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) has been implied to determine the accuracy and ability of investors to predict stock performance and select an investment basket. Findings: The effect of Control Ownership (CO) on Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) of Muscat Stock Exchange (MSE) listed companies is negative which indicates that with increasing Control Ownership (CO) of stock, stock returns will fluctuate and Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) will decrease. Moreover, the results of the research show that the effect of Control Ownership Squared (CO2) on the Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) of Muscat Stock Exchange (MSE) listed companies is positive. Conclusion: The effect of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index including institutional ownership, the Board of Directors (BOD) and the volume of stock exchanges is significant on the Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) of companies listed on the Muscat Stock Exchange (MSE). Practical Implications and Contribution to Literature: This research indicates that by increasing Control Ownership (CO) of the stock, the fluctuations of stocks’ returns and the Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) of Muscat Stock Exchange (MSE) listed companies will primarily decrease but the increase in CO will increase the volatility of the corporation’s Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR). In fact, it was claimed that the relationship between CO and CAR is similar to a U-shaped parabola.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of the Glasgow Climate Pact on global oil and gas sector stocks. Further, this study also examines if the nations' Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) and World Energy Trilemma Index (WETI) drive the abnormal returns around the event.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply the event study analysis to 691 global oil and gas firms across 52 countries. Further, they apply the cross-sectional examination of cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) across 502 firms.FindingsThe emerging markets experienced significant negative abnormal returns on the event day. The CCPI negatively affects longer pre-event CARs, while WETI significantly negatively associates with CARs during longer pre- and post-event windows. Volatility is negatively related to pre- and post-event abnormal returns, while past returns positively drive pre-event period CARs but negatively drive post-event window CARs. This study finds an interesting association between liquidity (CACL) and CARs, as CACL positively drives pre-event CARs, but post-event CARs are negatively associated with CACL. The CARs do not significantly correlate with leverage, size and book-to-market ratio.Practical implicationsThis study's findings on the impact of climate risks on financial markets have significant implications for global regulatory bodies. Policymakers should reduce stock volatility and enhance environmental disclosures by publicly traded companies to accurately price and assess the potential impacts of climate risks. Governments should examine the effects of environmental restrictions on investor behavior, especially in developing countries with limited access to capital. Therefore, policymakers need to consider the far-reaching impacts of environmental regulations while introducing them.Originality/valueClimate risks are expected to impact the global financial market significantly. Prior studies provide limited evidence on how such climate pacts impact the oil and gas sector. Hence, this study, while bridging this gap, provides important implications for policymakers and stakeholders, particularly the emerging markets that are more sensitive.

This study presents the effect of Global Merger on stock prices of Tata Chemicals. We examine shareholder wealth gains of Tata Chemicals that acquired British Salt in Dec 2010. This study analyses global merger by Tata Chemicals in UK and the returns to shareholders as a result of the merger, using the event study methodology (Brown and Warner, 1980, 1985; and MacKinlay, 1997).We find that foreign acquirers experience positive and significant abnormal returns of nearly two percent over days (- 10,+ 10) when they acquire target in the UK. To capture the impact on stock prices as a result of global M&A using the event study methodology. Using the single-factor model the study finds that the average cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of the Tata Chemicals is positive and substantial. These results are statistically significant also. Thus, the bidder firm got significant positive abnormal returns. The single-factor model finds that the combined CAR is positive, significant and substantial. The bidder firm created a wealth of Rs 33.73 million in a one day window (single-factor model) as a result of the merger. The merger announcements of Tata Chemicals have positive and significant shareholder wealth effect both for bidder and target firm. The aim is to understand the shareholder wealth effects of merger. *Using the single-factor model, the study finds that the average cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of the Tata Chemicals is positive and substantial. These results are also statistically significant. Thus, the bidder firm got significant positive abnormal returns. *The single-factor model finds that the combined CAR for the target firm is positive, significant, and substantial. The bidder firm created a wealth of Rs 33.73 million in a one-day window (single factor model) as a result of the merger.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of intra-industry information transfers within Ghana’s banking industry due to the collapse of seven banks. This is a short-term study with an event window [−10, +10] and an estimation period of 200 trading days. The event study methodology is adopted to estimate the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) gained by other rival industry banks as well as to calculate the cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) for the entire Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE). The results of the study show that the collapse of the seven banks does convey information that the market uses in revising stock prices. However, most of the rival banks experienced an insignificant share price reaction. This insignificant reaction can be attributed to the fact that GSE is not efficient. The study recommended among others, for the GSE to be reformed to improve the efficiency of the market and secure the flow of information to market participants.

Information about companies published in a news feed is invariably tinted by emotional tonality. As such, resultingperceptions may influence the opinion of market players, and consequently affect the dynamics of a company’s shareprice. This study aims to evaluate various hypotheses about the impact of the tone of news items regarding dividends,capital expenditures, and development on the stock prices of Russian companies. Information disclosure is extensivelystudied, and there have been limited studies on the effect of disclosures on Russian companies. However, until now, therehave been no research studies which verify hypotheses on the influence of news sentiment on corporate share prices inthe Russian market.
 This analysis was conducted using data from 49 Russian public companies included in the Moscow exchange indexover the period from the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2019. To account for the proximate impact of news items onconsequential market phenomena, an event study methodology was applied in order to estimate and construct themodels of dependency of cumulative abnormal return (CAR) on news tone level, and control for financial and nonfinancialfactors.
 Our results provide evidence for the positive impact of the tone of news texts on the share prices of Russian companies.The increase in news tone by one standard deviation leads to a cumulative abnormal stock return increase of 0.26percentage points. This result is consistent with previous research conducted on data from developed stock markets.Moreover, the relationship between the tone or sentiment level of a news item and the stock price reaction is linear,without the diminishing marginal effect.
 Our conclusions should prompt companies to invest effort in delivering information in a tonally positive way,highlighting the most positive news. Investors, in turn, should rationally approach the interpretation of publishedinformation.

This research seeks to determine whether mandated corporate social responsibility (CSR) is value relevant to investors. Specifically, this study is centered around the Companies Act, 2013 passed in India on August 29. The legislation requires companies with a net worth of at least five hundred crore rupees (Rs 5 billion), or with a turnover of at least one thousand crore rupees (Rs 10 billion), or a with a net profit of at least five crore rupees (Rs 50 million) to spend at least 2% of the average net profits of its last three financial years on supporting social initiatives. Using the event study methodology, this study observes the share prices of companies listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) around the passing of the legislation. It was found that the cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) surrounding the passing of the legislation are significantly different from zero and negative, indicating, negative reaction from investors. The analysis than focuses on companies that were affected by the legislation. The study tests for difference in CAR of affected companies that were included in the S&P BSE Greenex Index and the S&P BSE Carbonex Index with CAR of affected companies that were not included in these index. These two index include companies that are considered environmentally friendly. The analysis finds that CAR of affected companies included in the S&P Greenex and S&P Carbonex Index are significantly different from CAR of other affected companies. The CAR of companies that are considered environmentally friend is significantly better compared to other affected firms. This finding suggests that mandating CSR is relevant to investors. Furthermore, firms that are already involved in CSR, thus, considered environmentally friendly, are the least affected by the legislation. These companies are large companies that were part of the S&P BSE 100, the 100 largest companies in BSE, hence, are arguably scrutinized more compared to smaller companies. Their asset size, net worth, and profitability, may put them under the spotlight and, therefore, increase the costs of compliance and monitoring. The required CSR outlay outlined in the legislation may be perceived as positive information due to its ability to reduce uncertainty regarding required CSR expenditure. The passing of the legislation may also serve as affirmative confirmation in regards to these companies’ CSR strategy.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine market reactions to private equity placements and intra-industry information spillover effects in the Taiwan Stock Exchange. Design/methodology/approach – The authors first use the market model to compute the abnormal announcement returns. To examine the joint impact of the private investment in public equity (PIPE) purposes and the lead investor industry, the authors regress the issuers’ cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) on the dummy variables of PIPE purposes and the lead investor industry. To study the spillover effects, the authors regress the rivals’ CARs on the issuers’ CARs, PIPE purposes, and the lead investor industry. Finally, the industry Herfindahl index is used as a proxy for the market power of issuers and rivals to examine its impact on the spillover effects. Findings – The authors find that issuing firms experience positive abnormal returns during the announcement period. Issuers enjoy more positive market reactions when the proceeds of offerings are primarily used to establish a long-term strategic alliance or to integrate business and when the lead investor is in the same industry. Furthermore, the authors show that the contagion effect dominates the competitive effect in private equity placements at the aggregate level. At the subsample level, the authors find competitive effect overpowers contagion effect when the purpose of offerings is primarily used to establish a long-term strategic alliance or to integrate business and when the lead investor is in the different industry. Finally, the authors show that rivals with relative lower market power enjoy more positive contagion effects. Originality/value – First, the analysis documents the simultaneous importance of both the purposes of private offerings and the lead investor’s industry on announcement reactions, which shed new light on the positive abnormal returns during the announcement period. Second, the study adds to the literature on the information spillover effects by analyzing the role played by purposes of offerings and rivals’ market power. This paper provides a more complete picture of the offsetting competitive and contagion effects.

This study analyses five mergers in the Indian banking sector to capture the returns to shareholders as a result of the merger announcements using the event study methodology (Brown and Warner, 1980, 1985; and MacKinlay, 1997). These are mergers of the Times Bank with the HDFC Bank, the Bank of Madura with the ICICI Bank, the ICICI Ltd. with the ICICI Bank, the Global Trust Bank with the Oriental Bank of Commerce, and the Bank of Punjab with the Centurion Bank. The Fama and Miller (1972) market model and Cox and Portes. (1998) twofactor model form the theoretical framework of this study. The aim is to understand the shareholder wealth effects of bank mergers. Using the single-factor model, the study finds that the average cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of the bidder banks is positive and substantial. These results are also statistically significant. Thus, the bidder banks got significant positive abnormal returns. The two-factor model results reveal that the merger announcement in the Indian private sector banks generated a positive and statistically significant CAR of 5.24 per cent, 7.83 per cent, and 8.59 per cent in a one-day, two-day, and three-day run-up window respectively to the shareholders of the bidder banks. The single-factor model finds that the combined CAR for all the target banks is positive, significant, and substantial. The combined CAR has been propped up due to very high CAR registered by the Bank of Madura. The bidder banks created a wealth of Rs 4,117.98 million in a one-day window (singlefactor model) as a result of the merger announcements. In the case of target banks, the shareholders of the Global Trust Bank and the Bank of Punjab appear to be the losers; they lost Rs 382.55 million in a one-day run-up window (single-factor model) and Rs 128.74 million in a one-day window (single-factor model) respectively. The Oriental Bank of Commerce and the Global Trust Bank combined lost 14.78 per cent in value on a weighted average basis in a 11-day period (-5, 5) window. This merger was the first major move to bail out a sick bank. The merger announcements in the Indian banking industry have positive and significant shareholder wealth effect both for bidder and target banks. The market value weighted CAR of the combined bank portfolio as a result of merger announcement is 4.29 per cent in a threeday period (-1, 1) window and 9.71 per cent in a 11-day period (-5, 5) event window.

The Russia-Ukraine war has captured international attention and raised concerns about its potential implications on global financial markets. This study aimed to investigate the interplay between geopolitical events, market reactions within the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the market efficiency of the IDX. The study employed event study methodology and analyzed changes in stock prices, abnormal returns, cumulative abnormal returns, and trading volume activity. The sample comprised 53 companies in the energy sector and 57 companies in the food and beverage sector listed on the IDX. The analysis focused on data from 10 days before and after three Russia-Ukraine conflict-related events, namely (1) the announcement of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022, (2) the announcement of an oil import embargo on Russia by the European Union on the 31st of May 2022, and (3) the announcement of the first wheat export ship’s departure from the port of Odesa on the 1st of August 2022. Both paired sample t-tests and paired sample Wilcoxon signed rank tests were conducted to assess the statistical significance of differences in the means of paired samples. The findings revealed significant differences in average stock prices before and after all three events in the energy sector. However, only events 2 and 3 displayed significant differences in average abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns. Moreover, events 1 and 3 exhibited significant differences in average trading volume activity. In the food and beverage sector, a significant difference in average stock prices was observed before and after event 2, while all three events presented significant differences in average abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns. Furthermore, event 3 showed a significant difference in average trading volume activity. These findings indicated that the IDX displayed varying reactions to different Russia-Ukraine conflict-related events. Notably, events involving multiple countries or entities exerted a greater impact on the energy and food and beverage sectors within the IDX, leading to more pronounced market reactions. Additionally, the findings suggested that the IDX exhibited a semi-strong form of market efficiency.

This paper provides evidence through observations and simulations that Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) can result in misleading inferences about market efficiency and post-event behavior. A set of 96 companies known to have multiple events and a simulation of returns with multiple post-event events are used to test three invalidating hypotheses on event-study methodology. We find that the use of artificial portfolios in event studies biases CAR downward, the increased volatility around post-event events and on the event day lowers the significance of abnormal returns, and the time series of CAR of the individual securities is larger in magnitude and higher in significance than that of the cross-sectional CAR of the portfolio.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine intra‐industry contagion and the following apparent violations of the efficient market hypothesis around large one‐day price decline events in individual stocks.Design/methodology/approachThe paper examines daily stock returns around one‐day price declines of 10 percent or more for event stocks and their rivals. Using techniques similar to those used in Bremer and Sweeney and Cox and Peterson, the paper includes event stocks whose prices are at least $10 per share prior to the event to reduce the possible price reversal induced by bid‐ask price bounce. As is typical for the literature, the stock daily abnormal return (AR) is calculated as the difference between the actual daily stock return and the estimated stock return based on the market model estimated over a 200‐trading‐day pre‐event period [−220, −21]. Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for each stock are formed by aggregating the individual daily stock ARs. Denoting the large price decline event day as day 0, we examine the ARs of 41 trading days [−20,+20], the CARs for the [+1,+3] period, and the CARs for the [+4,+20] period. Cross‐sectional average ARs and CARs are calculated and tested for statistical significance. Furthermore, the paper examines whether the post‐event abnormal stock returns for the event firm and its rivals can be explained by prior event firm and industry variables.FindingsOn average, after an event, the event stock experiences a positive three‐day AR (S&P 600 stocks) followed by a 17‐day negative AR (both S&P 500 and 600 stocks). Moreover, for that 17‐day period: the rivals' stocks outperform the event firms' stocks and the event firms' returns are statistically significantly related to prior variables. The paper also finds statistically significant relationships between the prior variables and the rivals' post‐event stock returns. It provides an intra‐industry effects explanation for these results.Originality/valueThe paper offers insights into abnormal stock returns, for the event firm and its rivals, following the event firm's large one‐day stock price drop.

The reviewed corporate spin-offs studies mostly in US, delved into wealth impact in the stock market. Different researchers espouse wealth creation on the various market models. This study also examines the wealth impacts of spin-off events, but in Malaysia, an emerging market place which is rare and further analyses the links between the wealth impact and parent company’s pre-event debt levels and post-event liquidity position to explain wealth redistribution from debtors to shareholders due to spin-offs. Using Market Model, we found wealth impacts are generally positive. Whilst, after regrouping the sample based on their performance level, we observed that the impact materialised through cumulative positive abnormal returns prior and after the event as well as reduced trend in abnormal lost post spin-off. Whereas, wealth redistribution effect is only apparent in poorly performed firms where a strong positive relationship between Cumulative Abnormal Return and debt levels is found, but not for firms that have good financial health thus the ability to repay debts.