Abstract
The core objective of this paper is to analyze the energy and CO2 reduction potentials as well as the market prospects of biofuels in EU-15 in a dynamic framework till 2050. The most important result of this analysis is that 2nd generation biofuels might become economically competitive between 2020 and 2030, yet this can only be achieved if the following preconditions are fulfilled: (1) achievement of significant learning effects leading to considerably lower plant costs; (2) significant improvement of conversion efficiency from feedstock to fuel leading to lower feedstock costs and better ecological performance; (3) increases in conventional diesel and gasoline prices, e.g., due to CO2 based taxes.
Highlights
In many policy directives and scientific papers biofuels are expected to contribute significantly to the reduction of fossil fuel consumption and corresponding CO2 emissions
The major conclusion of this analysis is that the overall potential for biofuels in EU-15 is about
Regarding the magnitude of biofuel potentials the following conclusion is important: whether arable land can be used for biofuels production is more relevant than the impact of tax policy
Summary
In many policy directives and scientific papers biofuels are expected to contribute significantly to the reduction of fossil fuel consumption and corresponding CO2 emissions. Currently used 1st generation biofuels (BF-1)—e.g., biodiesel from rapeseed, bioethanol from wheat and maize—are associated with ecological problems, high costs, low net energy yields, limited potential, land-use changes and competition with food production. Major advantages expected from BF-2 are: Better ecological performance because of lower life-cycle carbon emissions; No associated land-use changes; Due to the fact that they are produced from lignocellulose, considerable potentials for the required feedstocks are expected. These primary lignocellulose resources encompass: straw, corn stover, forest wood residues, wood industry residues, waste wood and short rotation coppice; If produced on large scale economic competiveness is expected. We focus on the following categories of biofuels: BD-1: 1st generation biodiesel from rape seed and other oil seeds; BE-1: 1st generation bioethanol from wheat and maize; BG: biogas from manure, grass and green maize; BD-2: 2nd generation biodiesel with Fischer–Tropsch process; BE-2: 2nd generation bioethanol from lignocellulose; SNG: synthetic gas from biomass; Electricity based on biomass (here, electricity based on biomass, which could be used in transport applications, is considered as “biofuel”)
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