The kondratiev phenomenon: A systems perspective

Abstract

AbstractDuring periods of social and economic malaise, such as the present, there tends to be renewed interest in Kondratiev cycles or economic long waves. However, the existence of these forms is highly debated. This paper redefines the issues to emphasize deep evolutionary sequences of societal structural changes within which more surficial periodic and aperiodic cycles and spatiotemporal waveforms can be recognized. The history of long‐wave studies and controversy is discussed. The original findings of N. D. Kondratiev are briefly reviewed. The characteristics of the present downturn are discussed. A systems summary of the Kondratiev phenomenon is presented. Then evidence for the existence of the Kondratiev phenomenon and its associated manifestations is provided. Considerable evidence comes from the analysis of time‐series data. However, major emphasis is placed on systems theory and the explanatory role of system dynamics, catastrophe theory and dissipative‐structure theory. The importance of macropsychological driving forces is briefly summarized. Kondratiev theory is interpreted as paradigm shift. The relevance of Kondratiev theory to societal systems planning, policymaking and design is stressed. This paper deals with the levels of the society and supranational system of living systems theory.