The issue of the fourth nuclear power plant and its impact on 3-E problems in Taiwan—empirical evidence from the energy forecasting (EnFore) system

Abstract

Taiwan has placed considerable emphasis on economic, energy and environmental (3-E) problems in recent decades. Following President Chen's inauguration, one particular issue of concern has been the current dispute over the fourth nuclear power plant (FNPP) in northern Taiwan. This dispute has had a serious impact on Taiwan's economy, including its energy structure and general policy towards CO 2 emission controls. It is estimated, for example, that the loss to Taiwan's capital market as a result of the FNPP dispute, reached NT$7 trillion (about US$219 billion) by the end of 2000. 1 1 Report from The Commercial Times, 1 January 2001. If Taiwan Power Company (Taipower) were to replace the nuclear power plant capacity with liquified natural gas generators, average utility prices would go up by around 4.6% over the next 10 years. The alternative would be for low-cost coal-fired power plants to assume the major position in future power generation; however, this could cause significant damage to Taiwan's CO 2 emission control policy. This paper uses an integrated computerized system model of energy forecasting to simulate the complex interrelationship between the various issues. Empirical results reveal that there are no perfect solutions available; thus, this is an important learning process for the government in terms of administration, as well as for other academic studies.