The interplay between geopolitics and connectivity: making sense of the EU and China’s shifting approaches to the Middle Corridor

This article focuses on the security cooperation between China and Turkey and the impact of the ‘Belt and Road’ and the ‘Middle Corridor’ Initiatives on bilateral cooperation. The ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative and Turkey’s ‘Middle Corridor’ Initiative have promoted economic cooperation and enhanced communication and mutual understanding between the two countries. We examine this cooperation from a security perspective; with deep analysis on security cooperation between China and Turkey published by the governments, academia and social media, the impact of the ‘Belt and Road’ and ‘Middle Corridor’ Initiatives on the growing bilateral relationship has been clearly highlighted. Additionally, this article focuses on the challenges of bilateral security and counter-terrorism cooperation, and the positive impact of security cooperation on Sino-Turkish relations in the wake of the ‘Belt and Road’ and the ‘Middle Corridor’ initiatives. This article shows that economic cooperation has a significant impact on security cooperation and the ‘Belt and Road’ and the ‘Middle Corridor’ Initiatives may build closer ties between the two countries.

Geopolitics of separatism

Significance Interest in the 'Middle Corridor' was revived after Russia invaded Ukraine and expanding Western sanctions raised the commercial risk for carriers. Despite enthusiasm among participants from Turkey to Kazakhstan, China has not wholeheartedly backed the route. Impacts The route is important to Kazakhstan, where frictions with Russia will encourage export route diversification. Georgia and Azerbaijan may secure greater Western investment in infrastructure. Turkey and Azerbaijan will press Armenia to open a transit corridor. Iran will push for north-south trade routes with Armenia and Russia.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Türkiye’s Middle Corridor (MC) are two ambitious initiatives that foster trans-continental integration. These two grand schemes have been developed independently of one another. Nonetheless, they have the common objective of connecting Europe and Asia as well as facilitating commercial, economic, political, and socio-cultural interactions between the two continents. While the MC is one of the most important components of the BRI, the alignment of these two projects will offer a range of benefits for Türkiye’s MC, especially in finding alternative financing sources. This article aims to examine the history, objectives, and phases of Türkiye's MC. In doing so, it harmonizes the BRI with the MC and examines the opportunities that the integration offers for the region, as well as its inherent risks and challenges. This research is also significant and worthwhile as it provides insights into the compatibility of the BRI and the MC.

The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TTIR; Middle Corridor (MC)) presents significant potential, as it may evolve into a reliable and competitive route compared to traditional routes and contribute to substantial economic development and trade facilitation. The present research aims to realize the tangible benefits of MC to Georgia from the perspective of Georgian stakeholders, identify gaps and areas for improvement, and transcend the mere transit economy status. This research was conducted through consultations with stakeholders, including logistics companies, ports, rail, and state entities, all of which possess extensive experience in MC. Research shows that Georgia's strategic location, a key transit point between Asia and Europe, plays a crucial role in the MC and can further strengthen its geopolitical position. MC offers Georgia unique economic growth opportunities, benefiting from increased trade flows and potential investments in infrastructure. This research identifies the challenges facing MC, which extend beyond Georgia's control, necessitating active participation from all countries along the route to uniformly develop infrastructure. Success depends on comprehensive coordination among parties, complete digitalization of the corridor, and a transparent pricing structure. This research describes the various initiatives taken by Georgia. Such initiatives include active engagement in digital projects led by the World Bank, UN, TRACECA, CAREC, and the construction of a deep-sea port in Anaklia, among others.

Significance When Ukraine and Moldova received that status on June 23, Georgia was granted only a 'European perspective', which in practice means candidate status is deferred until it addresses concerns about democracy and the rule of law. The failings are a result of policy backsliding which has undermined Georgia's reformist credentials among Western partners. Impacts The more limited promise of a 'European perspective' may still have a positive impact on foreign direct investment. Development of the China-Europe 'Middle Corridor' via the Caucasus will accelerate. Georgia-Ukraine relations will remain tense, but without deteriorating further. Residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia may become keener to obtain Georgian passports because of EU travel opportunities.

Significance A recent downward trend in relations reflects deep-rooted grievances and diverging geopolitical trajectories, but Azerbaijan's growing assertiveness, helped by regional interloper Turkey, has left less room for resuming past methods of mutual accommodation. Impacts Azerbaijani-Russian relations will remain tense as each distrusts the other's intentions in Karabakh. Relations between Armenia and Russia will remain strained. As the 'Middle Corridor' route gains attention, Turkey's engagement with Central Asia will increase. Ukraine-Iran ties will become more difficult as Tehran supplies Moscow with weapons.

Significance Tensions between opposing political forces rose last month when the government triggered impeachment proceedings against the president. Although this failed, strains between the president and the ruling Georgian Dream party are rising. Georgian Dream has complicated its ties with the United States and EU by criticising them both for alleged interference. Impacts Work on expanding the 'Middle Corridor' trade route will continue; construction of the Anaklia deep-sea port should start next year. With the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Russia’s position in the South Caucasus is much diminished. Georgia’s relations with Russia will remain stable as both countries will seek to expand bilateral trade.

As China emerged as a major manufacturing powerhouse and trade between China and the EU expanded, the transport and trade routes linking Asia/China with Europe/EU gained geoeconomic and geopolitical importance. The strategic relevance of these routes has been further intensified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which prompted Western sanctions aimed at isolating Russia and undermining its military, political, and economic strength. This geopolitical shift has highlighted the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR)— the Middle Corridor—as an alternative to the Eurasian Land Bridge Economic Corridor- the Northern Corridor, which connects China with Europe via Russia. Initially conceptualized in 2013 and operational since 2017, the Middle Corridor has demonstrated notable growth in recent years. However, it faces significant infrastructural challenges, both hard and soft, that negatively affect its competitiveness relative to the Northern Corridor. To fully realize the Middle Corridor’s potential and position it as aprimary land route between Asia and Europe, substantial investment and extensive improvements are required. Opportunely, recent developments suggest a growing interest from international stakeholders in investing in the Middle Corridor, indicating its potential to become the dominant intercontinental land transport and trade route between Asia and Europe.

As China emerged as a major manufacturing powerhouse and trade between China and the EU expanded, the transport and trade routes linking Asia/China with Europe/EU gained geoeconomic and geopolitical importance. The strategic relevance of these routes has been further intensified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which prompted Western sanctions aimed at isolating Russia and undermining its military, political, and economic strength. This geopolitical shift has highlighted the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR)— the Middle Corridor—as an alternative to the Eurasian Land Bridge Economic Corridor- the Northern Corridor, which connects China with Europe via Russia. Initially conceptualized in 2013 and operational since 2017, the Middle Corridor has demonstrated notable growth in recent years. However, it faces significant infrastructural challenges, both hard and soft, that negatively affect its competitiveness relative to the Northern Corridor. To fully realize the Middle Corridor’s potential and position it as aprimary land route between Asia and Europe, substantial investment and extensive improvements are required. Opportunely, recent developments suggest a growing interest from international stakeholders in investing in the Middle Corridor, indicating its potential to become the dominant intercontinental land transport and trade route between Asia and Europe.

Trade and commercial activities between Europe and Asia can be carried out through three main routes: The Northern Corridor, the Southern Corridor and the Middle Corridor. The Northern Corridor passes through Russian territory, while the Southern Corridor is a sea route that connects China to Europe. The Middle Corridor is a newer route that follows the old Silk Road and crosses the Central Asian Republics, the Caucasus and Turkey. The study aimed to analyze the geopolitical role of the Middle Corridor, particularly following the onset of the Ukraine war. Research findings indicated that the strategic importance of this corridor significantly rose after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The West is now shifting away from the Northern Corridor and channeling heavy investments towards the development of the Middle Corridor. Europeans are viewing the Middle Corridor as a viable alternative to the Northern route. However, substantial infrastructure investments are crucial to enhance the corridor's capacity and potential. Collaboration among Middle Corridor countries is essential for the development of transportation and communication infrastructure. With proper investments, the corridor has the potential to emerge as a key trade route connecting Europe and Asia.

Significance Sanctions have constrained east-west transit through Russia and revived its interest in north-south connections to Gulf ports and India. Moscow and Tehran, each keen to circumvent Western trade embargoes, are talking about completing railway sections needed to make the INSTC a continuous route. Impacts Georgia will double down on promoting the west-east 'Middle Corridor' from Turkey to China. Azerbaijan is likely to secure Armenian agreement to a western corridor connecting it with Nakhichevan and Turkey. Armenia will try to promote itself as a possible trade corridor, despite difficult relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

This article analyzes Türkiye’s growing engagement with Asia, exploring its recent initiatives and evolving relationships in the region. Beginning with an examination of Türkiye’s Asia Anew Initiative, this article examines Türkiye’s connectivity projects across Eurasia. Furthermore, it delves into the institutionalization of relations within the Organization of Turkic States. The article then focuses on the relations between Türkiye and Mongolia, highlighting their deep-rooted historical and cultural connections. The article discusses Türkiye's proactive role in promoting the 'Middle Corridor', envisioning Türkiye as a pivotal logistics and energy hub linking Europe and Asia. It examines Türkiye’s efforts to enhance connectivity and institutionalize relations in the region. Emphasizing Türkiye's broader engagement with Asian countries, the article advocates for strengthened cooperation between Türkiye and Mongolia. This article argues that collaboration between Turks and Mongols holds significant potential in the present context. Strengthening cooperation between Türkiye and Mongolia is crucial, particularly in fostering connectivity projects, bolstering economic ties, and ensuring regional peace and stability.

The Middle Corridor is emerging as a crucial alternative trade route due to recent geopolitical shifts. It provides a viable alternative to the established Northern Corridor, which connects Europe and Asia through Russia. The Middle Corridor offers shorter routes and access to emerging markets with significant growth potential. This study aims to assess the geopolitical impact of activating the Middle Corridor, analyze cargo traffic along the route, and evaluate both operational impacts and strategic implications. Addressing infrastructure and operational challenges, as well as securing necessary investments, will be essential for the corridor’s long-term success and competitiveness in global trade. For the participating countries, this corridor represents an opportunity to diversify trade routes and reduce dependency on the Northern Corridor.

This study aims to elucidate the role of the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), in diversifying global trade routes and enhancing economic resilience amid geopolitical tensions. The paper examines the corridor's impact on the economic and strategic interests of the countries it traverses, particularly Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and the European Union. The analysis employs a multidimensional approach that includes historical context analysis, comparative route analysis, geographic information system mapping, and statistical analysis. Data were collected from various sources, including the World Bank, the International Trade Centre, and trade and economic policy reports from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and the European Union databases. Based on the methods used, the study compares the Middle Corridor with traditional trade routes such as the Northern Sea Route and the Suez Canal, highlighting its advantages and potential limitations. The Middle Corridor has emerged as a vital alternative, offering reduced transit times and enhanced trade security between Asia and Europe. The corridor has experienced a significant increase in cargo volume, reflecting its growing importance in international trade. Furthermore, the Middle Corridor contributes to the participating countries' economic diversification and energy security, facilitating the movement of energy resources and other goods. The analysis revealed challenges such as political instability and infrastructural needs that could hinder the full potential of the Middle Corridor. Ultimately, the study underscores the strategic significance of the Trans-Caspian Route and the Zangezur Corridor in diversifying global trade routes and strengthening economic resilience in geopolitical tensions.