The influence of the Weibull assumption in monthly wind energy estimation

Abstract

AbstractAn estimation of the monthly wind energy output for the period 1999–2003 at five wind farms in northeastern Spain was evaluated. The methodology involved the calculation of wind speed histograms and the observed average wind power versus wind relation obtained from hourly data. The energy estimation was based on the cumulated contribution of the wind power from each wind speed interval. The impact of the Weibull distribution assumption as a substitute of the actual histogram in the wind energy estimation was evaluated.Results reveal that the use of a Weibull probability distribution has a moderate impact in the energy calculation as the largest estimation errors are, on average, no larger than 10% of the total monthly energy produced. However, the evaluation of the goodness of fit through the χ2 statistics shows that the Weibull assumption is not strictly substantiated for most of the sites. This apparent discrepancy is based on the partial cancellation of the positive and negative departures of the Weibull fitted and the actual wind frequency distributions.Further investigation of the relation between the χ2 and the error contribution exposes a tendency of the Weibull distribution to underestimate (overestimate) the observed histograms in the lower and upper (intermediate) wind speed intervals. This fact, together with the larger wind power weight over the highest winds, results in a systematic total wind energy underestimation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.