The influence of source maps on SILAM performance in modeling ragweed pollen concentrations in the area of a major European source.

Abstract

The Pannonian Plain is one of the centers of ragweed distribution in Europe. The province of Vojvodina (Serbia) is located on the southern part of the Pannonian Plain, representing a highly infested region. In this study, we have used the SILAM atmospheric dispersion model to simulate ragweed pollen concentrations during the season 2016 in the Vojvodina region. SILAM was tested with three different source maps of ragweed distribution in Vojvodina only: (1) map used in operational SILAM, which was calibrated with the SILAM model and observations, (2) map derived using "top-down" approach with land cover data inventory, and (3) map obtained with "top-down" approach using crop classification from the satellite data. Additionally, the sensitivity studies were done using two modified maps to study the effect of the source strength and long-range transport. Results of simulations were validated with the bi-hourly, daily, and seasonal pollen concentrations measured at five stations in Vojvodina. Overall Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.51 (Map 1), 0.50 (Map 2), and 0.42 (Map 3), while debiased scores were 232.95 pollen m-3 (Map 1), 245.59 pollen m-3 (Map 2), and 258.24 pollen m-3 (Map 3). Even though Vojvodina is in the area of a major European source, regional transport of ragweed pollen from a few hundred kilometers of the surrounding area was important in explaining the presence of pollen in the afternoon hours, although it could not completely explain total pollen quantity. The results confirmed that it is vital to calibrate source maps using atmospheric dispersion model with the observed pollen data.