Abstract
Changes in population characteristics are associated with changes in the prevalence of physical and related health conditions with alternative types of population change leading to change in the prevalence of certain conditions. Examination of the effects of future demographic change on such conditions is, in turn, critical for understanding the future need for various types of health-related facilities and services. This article provides an example of how future demographic changes are likely to impact overweight and obese status in Texas, a rapidly growing and diversifying state. Specifically it uses population decomposition techniques to examine the relative impacts of population growth, aging and changes in the racial/ethnic composition of the population on increases in the prevalence and related costs of overweight and obesity in Texas, an important input for the formulation of statewide health policies. The number of overweight adults in Texas is projected to increase from 5.5 million in 2000 to 16.0 million in 2040, and the number of obese adults to increase from 3.5 million in 2000 to 14.6 million in 2040. The largest projected increases occur among Hispanics and other minority populations and for all race/ethnicity groups the increases are largest among those who are 65 years of age and older. Decomposition analysis indicates that of the projected increase of 10.5 million overweight adults from 2000 to 2040, 54.0% is attributable to population increase, 15.0% to change in age distribution, and 31.0% to change in racial/ethnic composition. Of the projected increase in the number of obese adults, 61.6% is due to population change and 38.4% to change in racial/ethnic composition. The annual costs associated with overweight and obesity prevalence are expected to increase from $10.5 billion in 2000 to $40.3 billion in 2040. The results suggest that services to address these conditions will need to be widely dispersed across the state with particular concentrations of the elderly, Hispanics, and Other minority populations.
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