THE IMPACTS OF WEATHER FACTORS ON OUTDOOR RECREATION ECONOMY IN THE UNITED STATES

Radley Horton,1,a Daniel Bader,1,a Yochanan Kushnir,2 Christopher Little,3 Reginald Blake,4 and Cynthia Rosenzweig5 1Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY. 2Ocean and Climate Physics Department, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY. 3Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA. 4Physics Department, New York City College of Technology, CUNY, Brooklyn, NY. 5Climate Impacts Group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY

Variations in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle can have far-reaching effects on living conditions on our planet. While climate change discussions often revolve around possible consequences of future temperature changes, the adaptation to changes in the hydrological cycle may pose a bigger challenge to societies and ecosystems. Floods and droughts are already today amongst the most damaging natural hazards, with floods being globally the most significant disaster type in terms of loss of human life (Jonkman 2005). From an economic perspective, changes in the hydrological cycle can impose great pressures and damages on a variety of industrial sectors, such as water management, urban planning, agricultural production and tourism. Despite their obvious environmental and societal importance, our understanding of the causes and magnitude of the variations of the hydrological cycle is still unsatisfactory (e.g., Ramanathan et al 2001, Ohmura and Wild 2002, Allen and Ingram 2002, Allan 2007, Wild et al 2008, Liepert and Previdi 2009).

A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

Outdoor Program Administration: Principles and Practices Geoff Harrison Matt Erpelding Editors Human Kinetics, 2012A cursory review of the table of contents in Outdoor Program Administration could lead one to believe that the collective efforts of both the authors and editors has led to the creation of an oxymoron-a comprehensive introductory book on outdoor However, a more thorough review of the text reveals not necessarily a comprehensive coverage of outdoor programming, but undoubtedly an extensive and expansive resource-encompassing the diverse parameters typically found in outdoor programming-from its historic foundations to the safe and competent delivery of such programs. This book is certainly a strong, introductory text because the authors did a masterful job of delimiting the multidimensional nature of developing and managing outdoor recreation programs.The field of outdoor recreation and outdoor programming is inordinately diverse, in fact, Priest (1999) once described outdoor recreation as ... any activity done outdoors (p. 112). Because of the extensiveness of this field, it is extremely challenging, perhaps even impossible, to create a single resource that can teach readers how to do outdoor programming. On the other hand, the authors and editors of Outdoor Program Administration have done a yeoman's job of delineating the essential concerns and topics for outdoor programming-those aspects commonly shared across most outdoor recreation activities, those that must be acknowledged and negotiated in the design and implementation of such programs. Therefore, it seems very plausible that educators, outdoor program administrators, or other outdoor program professionals will discover some valuable information, useful ideology, as well as pertinent assessments about program issues and concerns somewhere between this book's covers. This is good news given the fact that within the first few pages of Outdoor Program Administration, the editors identify the book's intended audience to be outdoor recreation administrators, field instructors, and students enrolled in outdoor recreation courses. What an enormously ambitious goal, to write for the neophyte and at the same time for the experienced professional, quite a daunting task given the wide-ranging gamut of knowledge and experiences across such an audience.The editors did a commendable job in arranging the book's 21 chapters into four distinct sections. The first section, Outdoor Program Foundations (chapters 1 - 4), introduces the reader to outdoor program administration, proposes specific skills and competencies for outdoor program administrators, traces both the historical foundations of outdoor programs in the United States and the evolution of professionalism within outdoor recreation, links outdoor recreation with the three recreation service delivery systems (public, private, and nonprofit), and identifies specific societal trends, such as the changing demographics of outdoor recreationists and professional standardization, that are proposed to likely impact the future of outdoor As a whole, this first section providers the reader with a sense of direction-beginning with where outdoor programming has been and point to where the field may be headed in the future.The second section of the book, Program Design and Implementation (chapters 5 - 12), is the most voluminous section of the text, making up nearly 40% of the entire book, and well it should. The topics of chapters within this section are the core to outdoor programming: risk and risk management, organizational structure, mission statements and strategic planning, legal considerations and negligence, financial management-particularly budgets, marketing basics, public land access and permits, environmental stewardship, and the development of policies and procedures for outdoor Cumulatively, these topics and processes are at the crux of how outdoor programming is developed, created, and implemented. …

In recent decades, increased burning of fossil fuels for electricity, heating and transportation have led to increases in greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases) while deforestation and decreased biodiversity has reduced the Earth's ability to remove CO2 , the major greenhouse gas emission. Greenhouse gases trap the sun's energy leading to fundamental shifts in the physical and chemical nature of our planet. They also increase global temperatures both on land and in the oceans and increase acidification of the ocean. More than 90 percent of the warming that happened on Earth between 1971-2010 occurred in the oceans. In the 141 years that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has tracked global heat, the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2005.1.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been proposed as a catalyst for many U.S. residents to re-engage in outdoor recreation or engage in outdoor recreation for the first time. This manuscript describes the results of a representative U.S. national panel study aimed at better understanding the socio-demographic profile (gender, ethnicity, community type, income, and age) of those participants new to outdoor recreation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. In doing so, we address how these new outdoor recreationists differ from (1) those who frequently participated in outdoor recreation prior to the pandemic and continue to participate in outdoor recreation, (2) those who did not frequently participate in outdoor recreation prior to the pandemic and remain un-engaged, and (3) those who frequently participated in outdoor recreation prior to the pandemic but stopped their frequent participation following the onset of the pandemic. Results from this U.S. national study suggest that 35.8% of respondents indicated that they did not participate regularly in outdoor recreation prior to the pandemic or during the pandemic, 30.4% indicated that they did participate regularly in outdoor recreation prior to the pandemic and continued to do so regularly during the pandemic, and 13.5% indicated that they did participate regularly in outdoor recreation prior to the pandemic, but did not continue to do so during the pandemic. More than 20% of the sample indicated that they were new outdoor recreationists. The majority of respondents in all categories, including those that were new to outdoor recreation amidst the pandemic, identified as being white, however these new outdoor recreationists were also the least ethnically diverse. The previously but no longer outdoor recreationist respondents were significantly more ethnically diverse than the other three groups, and they tended to live in more urbanized settings. Discussion of these results includes implications for outdoor recreation managers, and researchers who seek to better understand who the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced with regard to outdoor recreation participation. Implications regarding social justice, access and equity to public places that facilitate outdoor recreation, and health-related policies are discussed.

In recent years much evidence has been gathered on climate change and its impact on different sectors and systems. Global warming is one of the main threats to sustainable development and, consequently, one of the most significant environmental challenges in the last decades affecting the economy, health and social welfare. It is necessary, therefore, to identify evidence of the impact of global warming on biodiversity and carry out an economic evaluation. In the specific case of marine ecosystems, changes in rainfall frequency and intensity, acidity, water temperature, wind, dissolved CO2 and salinity, combined with anthropogenic nutrient and toxin contamination, can affect water quality both in coastal regions as well as in the open sea. All of this will consequently affect the productivity of the marine environment. And given that fishing is one of the economic activities which critically depend on natural conditions or characteristics, the influence of environmental changes on fishing is notably higher than that which might occur in other primary activities. Furthermore, climate has a vital impact on the tourism and recreation sector and, therefore, this sector will be affected by any changes in climate. In this chapter, we assess the possible economic effects (losses or gains) of global warming on some of the main economic activities in north-western Spain. The economy of this region specialises in products derived from fishing and aquaculture as well as tourism, among others (IGE – Galician Statistics Institute-, 2010), and both activities are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions. It is highly probable that global warming will alter the intensity and conformation of ocean currents, affect marine organisms and generate coastal alterations (IPCC, 2007). Such environmental changes will have important repercussions on these economic activities. A considerable number of studies have been carried out internationally which have aimed to assess the economic effects of climate change on these activities. Among other references in the case of fishing, we would underline the following: Arnason (2005) evaluates the possible impact of climate change on Iceland’s fishery production, proposing different scenarios involving temperature increase; along the same lines, Eide (2005) analyses the possible impact on the Barents Sea fisheries; Gallagher (2005) makes an application to the New Zealand cod fishery, differentiating between zone and fishing method; Rockmann

Observations and model results show an increase in extreme precipitation with global warming since the 1950s. During the last decades there have also been strong trends in anthropogenic aerosol concentration, aerosols that may affect cloud and precipitation processes that develop these extreme events. As human activities are the source of anthropogenic aerosols, they tend to be concentrated over highly populated regions where the potential cost and impact of extreme precipitation is high. In this study we investigate the link between extreme precipitation and aerosol particles in the atmosphere by using the cloud resolving WRF model. The model is set up with an aerosol-dependent cloud microphysics scheme that include processes such as; the increase in smaller droplets in aerosol rich clouds, the change in cloud reflective properties that can reduce surface evapotranspiration as well as a deepening of convective clouds and possible an increase in precipitation intensity. The model is run over several years in a stable climate to distinguish how these processes influence extreme precipitation separately from the extreme precipitation increase due to global warming. 

Purpose Participation in outdoor recreation is associated with improvements in mental, emotional, and physical health. Individuals with impairments affecting mobility, such as wheelchair users, face environmental, physical, and social barriers to participation in outdoor recreation. There is limited research on outdoor recreation participation among wheelchair users, especially concerning informal recreational opportunities. Formal programmes that offer access to outdoor recreation are often oversubscribed and also do not enable opportunities to participate more spontaneously. Objectives (1) To explore the experiences and impact of participation in outdoor recreation activities by wheelchair users, with an emphasis on more informal activities; and (2) to identify perceived barriers and facilitators to participation in outdoor recreation activities. Methods Semi-structured interviews were the main means of data collection in this interpretive description study; this was supplemented by photographs of activity involvement provided by participants. These data were analysed thematically. Results Fifteen Canadian wheelchair users participated in the study. Three themes emerged following analysis: (1) Into the Woods explores participants’ current outdoor recreation experiences, (2) Ain’t No Mountain High Enough looks at the barriers and challenges participants face, and (3) Just Around the Riverbend discusses participants’ desired changes to enable their further participation. Conclusions The study highlighted participants’ current experiences, their perceived barriers, and several ways to enhance outdoor recreation participation among wheelchair users, including: developing new adaptations, creating policies, increasing access to affordable equipment and programmes, and reducing barriers in built and natural environments. Implications for rehabilitation Wheelchair users participate in a wide variety of outdoor activities. Wheelchair users experience various barriers and challenges when participating in outdoor recreation. Despite recent improvements, environmental changes are needed to allow wheelchair users to access outdoor recreation. Further development of adaptive equipment is needed in order for wheelchair users to access their desired outdoor recreation activities.

PurposeThe increasing frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events could cause devastating consequences in tourism. Climate change–related extreme weather events and their relation to tourism is an emerging field for education and research. The purpose of this study is to categorize the impact of climate change on tourist destinations with regard to extreme weather-related risks in outdoor recreation and tourism. Managerial implications for policymakers and stakeholders are discussed.Design/methodology/approachTo outline the risks from climate change associated with tourism, this study uses the Prisma analysis for identification, screening, checking for eligibility and finding relevant literature for further categorization.FindingsBased on a thoroughly examination of relevant literature, risks and threats posed by climate change could be categorized into following four areas: reduced experiential value in outdoor winter recreation; reduced value in beach scenery and comfort; land degradation and reduced biodiversity; and reduced value in personal safety and comfort in tourism. It also focuses on the significance of using big data applications in catastrophic disaster management and risk reduction. Recommendations with technology and data analytics to continuously improve the disaster management process in tourism education are provided based on findings of this study.Originality/valuePrimary contributions of this study include the following: providing a summarized overview of the risks associated with climate change in terms of tourist experiential value for educational implications; and revealing the role of data analytics in disaster management in the context of tourism and climate change for tourism education.

Abstract. Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C). We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout the 21C. Two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the middle and end- 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves a larger increase in global precipitation in the last decades of the 21C. Our energy/water budget analysis shows that this behavior is ultimately due to a bifurcation in the Bowen ratio change between the two scenarios. This work warns that mitigation policies that promote aerosol abatement, may lead to an unexpected stronger intensification of the hydrological cycle and associated changes that may last for decades after global warming is effectively mitigated. On the other hand, it is also suggested that predictable components of the radiative forcing by aerosols may have the potential to effectively contribute to the decadal-scale predictability of changes in the hydrological strength.

Climate over Kenya is rather heterogeneous and exceptionally dry for a region located in the tropics. This is related to various large-scale drivers, such as Lake Victoria, the complex topography, and the vicinity to the ocean. In consequence water resources are scarce and several stakeholders depend on these. Hence, it is important to understand how precipitation amounts and patterns change under global warming. A special focus is on Mount Kenya, one of the most important freshwater towers in Kenya. To investigate these changes, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model V3.8.1 to downscale a 30-year period for the present and the future climate, based on global climate simulations. The present period covers the years 1981–2010, and the future is run once for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and for the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 for the years 2071–2100.Changes in precipitation and temperature are well noticeable in the region of Mount Kenya. The projection indicates an increase in precipitation for the two rainy seasons (March to May, and October to November), while precipitation is reduced in the dry season. Extreme precipitation around Mount Kenya shows increases in the future during the rainy season, whereby the two different scenarios show a similar increase in extreme precipitation. This result is a bit surprising and needs further investigation. As expected, temperatures are projected to increase over all of Kenya, and particularly along the slopes of Mount Kenya in all months. For temperature there is a clear difference in the warming between the two scenarios, as RCP8.5 shows a much stronger change in temperature than RCP2.6. The summit of Mount Kenya reaches temperatures in the future that today are found at an elevation of around 3,200 m above sea level (a.s.l.). This warming can substantially affect the endemic vegetation along the slopes of Mount Kenya. Assuming that the tree line is limited by temperature and not precipitation, as the latter is abundant, it could move from around 3,000 m a.s.l. up to 3,700 m a.s.l. The strong increase in temperature further affects the remaining glacier, which is currently an important water storage during dry months. The projected increase in precipitation over entire Kenya will therefore increase water availability and reduce fire danger. Nevertheless, the combined increase in temperature and precipitation could affect human and animal wellbeing, as heat stress may be increased.All these results are based on a single regional and global climate model. Preliminary results indicate that the rainy season is clearly underestimated in the present simulation, compared to simulations obtained by a downscaling of the reanalysis ERA5. This indicates that important components of the atmosphere are not correctly captured by the model. These could include land-atmosphere interactions, misrepresentation of land cover, biases in sea surface temperatures and related changes in the atmospheric circulations. Thus, the atmospheric circulation and interactions with the land surface have to be assessed in further studies.

Atmospheric warming results in increase in temperatures for the mean, the coldest, and the hottest day of the year, season, or month. Global warming leads to a large increase in the atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. Using the GISS-E2.1 climate model, we present the future changes in the coldest and hottest daily temperatures as well as in extreme precipitation indices (under four main Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)). The increase in the wet-day precipitation ranges between 6% and 15% per 1 °C global surface temperature warming. Scaling of the 95th percentile versus the total precipitation showed that the sensitivity for the extreme precipitation to the warming is about 10 times stronger than that for the mean total precipitation. For six precipitation extreme indices (Total Precipitation, R95p, RX5day, R10mm, SDII, and CDD), the histograms of probability density functions become flatter, with reduced peaks and increased spread for the global mean compared to the historical period of 1850–2014. The mean values shift to the right end (toward larger precipitation and intensity). The higher the GHG emission of the SSP scenario, the more significant the increase in the index change. We found an intensification of precipitation over the globe but large uncertainties remained regionally and at different scales, especially for extremes. Over land, there is a strong increase in precipitation for the wettest day in all seasons over the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There is an enlargement of the drying patterns in the subtropics including over large regions around Mediterranean, southern Africa, and western Eurasia. For the continental averages, the reduction in total precipitation was found for South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia, and there is an increase in total precipitation over North America, Asia, and the continental Russian Arctic. Over the continental Russian Arctic, there is an increase in all precipitation extremes and a consistent decrease in CDD for all SSP scenarios, with the maximum increase of more than 90% for R95p and R10 mm observed under SSP5–8.5.

The need to restrict global mean temperature to avoid irreversible climate change is supported by scientific evidence. The need became political practice at the Conference of the Parties in 2015, where the participants decided to limit global warming to not more than +2.0 °C compared to pre-industrial times and to rather aim for a limit of +1.5 °C global warming. Nevertheless, a clear picture of what European climate would look like under +1.5 °C, +2.0 °C and +3.0 °C global warming level (GWL) is still missing. In this study, we will fill this gap by assessing selected climate indices related to temperature and precipitation extremes, based on state of the art regional climate information for Europe taken from the European branch of the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble. To assess the impact of these indices under climate change, we investigate the spatial extent of the area of the climate change signal in relation to the affected population. This allows us to demonstrate which climate extremes could be avoided when global warming is kept well below +2.0 °C or even +1.5 °C compared to higher GWLs. The European north–south gradient of tropical nights and hot days is projected to be intensified with an increasing global warming level. For precipitation-related indices, an overall increase in precipitation extremes is simulated, especially under +3.0 °C GWL, for mid- and northern Europe, whereas an increase in dry days is projected for many regions in southern Europe. The benefit of staying below +1.5 °C GWL compared to +2.0 °C GWL is the avoidance of an additional increase in tropical nights and hot days parallel to an increase in dry days in parts of southern Europe as well as an increase in heavy precipitation in parts of Scandinavia. Compared to +3.0 °C GWL, the benefit of staying at +1.5 °C GWL is to avoid a substantial increase (i.e., an increase of more than five dry days and ten tropical nights) in dry days and tropical nights in southern European regions, while, in several European regions and especially in northern Europe, a substantial increase (i.e., more than two heavy precipitation days) in heavy precipitation days could be avoided. This study shows that a statistically significant change in the investigated climate indices can be avoided under +1.5 °C GWL compared to the investigated higher GWLs +2.0 °C and +3.0 °C for the majority of the population in almost all regions. Future studies will investigate compound events where the severity of single extreme events is intensified.

The Qilian Mountains are a climate-sensitive area in northwest China, and extreme precipitation events have an important impact on its ecological environment. Therefore, considering the global warming scenario, it is highly important to project the extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the future. This study is based on three CMIP6 models (CESM2, EC-Earth3, and KACE-1-0-G). A bias correction algorithm (QDM) was used to correct the precipitation outputs of the models. The eight extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains during the historical period and in the future were calculated using meteorological software (ClimPACT2), and the performance of the CMIP6 models to simulate the extreme precipitation indices of the Qilian Mountains in the historical period was evaluated. Results revealed that: (1) The corrected CMIP6 models could simulate the changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the historical period relatively well, and the corrected CESM2 displayed better simulation as compared to the other two CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 models performed well while simulating R10mm (CC is higher than 0.71) and PRCPTOT (CC is higher than 0.84). (2) The changes in the eight extreme precipitation indices were greater with the enhancement of the SSP scenario. The growth rate of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century under SSP585 is significantly higher than the other two SSP scenarios. The increment of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains mainly comes from the increase in heavy precipitation. (3) The Qilian Mountains will become wetter in the 21st century, especially in the central and eastern regions. The largest increase in precipitation intensity will be observed in the western Qilian Mountains. Additionally, total precipitation will also increase in the middle and end of the 21st century under SSP585. Furthermore, the precipitation increment of the Qilian Mountains will increase with the altitude in the middle and end of the 21st century. This study aims to provide a reference for the changes in extreme precipitation events, glacier mass balance, and water resources in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century.