Abstract
Urbanization is a significant force affecting the preservation of archaeological sites across the globe. Even in war-torn countries such as Afghanistan, urbanization dramatically outpaces looting and other forms of site destruction that have been highly visible in the media. The study presents a method for analyzing how informal urban growth has and will affect heritage sites on the outskirts of the city in coming decades. The method draws on historical aerial and satellite imagery, historical maps and gazetteers, modern urban planning data, and predictive modeling within a GIS to trace recent urban growth, calculate potential areas of future urban growth, and investigate patterns in the impact of urbanization on Herat's cultural heritage. Because it employs simple GIS analyses and widely available input data, this approach should be useful for cultural heritage analysis in the vicinity of cities across Afghanistan and other areas experiencing informal urban growth.
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