The Impact of the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the Iranian Nuclear Issue

Abstract

Before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Vienna talks on the Iranian nuclear issue had been going on and off for nearly a year, but there were still differences on some key issues. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although the United States intends to reach an agreement to allow a large amount of Iranian energy to enter the international market to stabilize international energy prices, this may open a gap for sanctions against Russia. Because Russia asked the United States to ensure the normal conduct of its trade with Iran. More importantly, after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the US policy of trying to isolate Russia has put it in a dilemma in the Iranian nuclear negotiations: if Russia is allowed to participate in the negotiations, it is contrary to the purpose of isolating Russia; if Russia is not allowed to participate in the negotiations, Iran disagrees. To some extent, this has hindered the resumption of Iran’s nuclear negotiations. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made Iran further realize the decisive role of nuclear deterrence in maintaining national security, so it will be more firm in the maintenance of its own relevant nuclear rights. The long-term trend of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the subsequent long-term trend of fierce confrontation between the United States and Europe and Russia have made Iran feel the improvement of its strategic environment and are even more reluctant to compromise on the nuclear issue. Therefore, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a negative impact on the process of resolving the Iranian nuclear issue.