The impact of self-evacuation from flood hazard areas on the equilibrium of the road transport

Abstract

The main purpose of this article is to identify the local determinants for self-evacuation during a flooding event and the impact that the changes related to its individual stages and forms exert on the operational efficiency of the regional transport system. The authors conducted a questionnaire survey, the results of which were used to perform a series of traffic simulations. Six scenarios were analysed, each exemplifying various stages and forms of self-evacuation. Base volumes of traffic flows, speeds within the congested network, and travel times between individual transport regions were determined on the basis of a multi-modal and multi-motivational model of the area which takes into account the following types of traffic: internal, source-external, source–destination, and transit. The study showed that the evacuation from flood hazard areas following non-typical disruptions has a considerable impact on changes in the spatial distribution of the load on the road network.