The impact of phenological shifts on carbon uptake across major terrestrial biomes.

Determining the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and grassland phenology is important for an in-depth understanding of the impact of climate change on ecosystems. In this study, the NPP of grassland in Xinjiang, China, was simulated using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) grassland phenological (MCD12Q2) data to study trends in phenological metrics, grassland NPP, and the relations between these factors from 2001–2014. The results revealed advancement of the start of the growing season (SOS) for grassland in most regions (55.2%) in Xinjiang. The percentage of grassland area in which the end of the growing season (EOS) was delayed (50.9%) was generally the same as that in which the EOS was advanced (49.1%). The percentage of grassland area with an increase in the length of the growing season (LOS) for the grassland area (54.6%) was greater than that with a decrease in the LOS (45.4%). The percentage of grassland area with an increase in NPP (61.6%) was greater than that with a decrease in NPP (38.4%). Warmer regions featured an earlier SOS and a later EOS and thus a longer LOS. Regions with higher precipitation exhibited a later SOS and an earlier EOS and thus a shorter LOS. In most regions, the SOS was earlier, and spring NPP was higher. A linear statistical analysis showed that at various humidity (K) levels, grassland NPP in all regions initially increased but then decreased with increasing LOS. At higher levels of K, when NPP gradually increased, the LOS gradually decreased.

Abstract. Gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest and most variable component of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Repeatable and accurate monitoring of terrestrial GPP is therefore critical for quantifying dynamics in regional-to-global carbon budgets. Remote sensing provides high frequency observations of terrestrial ecosystems and is widely used to monitor and model spatiotemporal variability in ecosystem properties and processes that affect terrestrial GPP. We used data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and FLUXNET to assess how well four metrics derived from remotely sensed vegetation indices (hereafter referred to as proxies) and six remote sensing-based models capture spatial and temporal variations in annual GPP. Specifically, we used the FLUXNET La Thuile data set, which includes several times more sites (144) and site years (422) than previous studies have used. Our results show that remotely sensed proxies and modeled GPP are able to capture significant spatial variation in mean annual GPP in every biome except croplands, but that the percentage of explained variance differed substantially across biomes (10–80%). The ability of remotely sensed proxies and models to explain interannual variability in GPP was even more limited. Remotely sensed proxies explained 40–60% of interannual variance in annual GPP in moisture-limited biomes, including grasslands and shrublands. However, none of the models or remotely sensed proxies explained statistically significant amounts of interannual variation in GPP in croplands, evergreen needleleaf forests, or deciduous broadleaf forests. Robust and repeatable characterization of spatiotemporal variability in carbon budgets is critically important and the carbon cycle science community is increasingly relying on remotely sensing data. Our analyses highlight the power of remote sensing-based models, but also provide bounds on the uncertainties associated with these models. Uncertainty in flux tower GPP, and difference between the footprints of MODIS pixels and flux tower measurements are acknowledged as unresolved challenges.

Estimation of gross primary production over the terrestrial ecosystems in China

Abstract. The relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and phenological changes is of great significance to the study of regional ecosystem processes. In this study, firstly, NPP was estimated with the remote sensing model based on the SPOT-VGT NDVI dataset (2000–2015), meteorological data and the vegetation map in Northeast China. Then, using NDVI time series data which was reconstructed by polynomial fitting, phenology was extracted with the dynamic threshold method. Finally, the relationship between NPP and phenology was analyzed. The results showed that NPP mainly increased in the cropland, grassland, forestland and shrubland; however, vegetation NPP decreased in the ecotone among cropland, grassland and forestland. Correlation analysis suggested that the relationships between NPP and phenological metrics (i.e., the start of the growing season (SOS), the end of the growing season (EOS), the length of the growing season (LOS)) were different due to geographical location. On the whole, there was a positive correlation between NPP and the LOS in the forestland, and negative in the cropland and grassland, indicating that extended LOS can promote the accumulation of forestland NPP. By analyzing the monthly NDVI data during the vigorous growth period, the increase of NPP in the grassland and cropland was mainly due to the better growth from June to August, and shortened LOS did not lead to reduce the NPP. Generally, the response of NPP to phenology in Northeast China were more complex, showing obvious difference of vegetation types and spatial variability, we need to consider topography, community structure and other factors in the further studies.

The proliferation of digital cameras co-located with eddy covariance instrumentation provides new opportunities to better understand the relationship between canopy phenology and the seasonality of canopy photosynthesis. In this paper we analyze the abilities and limitations of canopy color metrics measured by digital repeat photography to track seasonal canopy development and photosynthesis, determine phenological transition dates, and estimate intra-annual and interannual variability in canopy photosynthesis. We used 59 site-years of camera imagery and net ecosystem exchange measurements from 17 towers spanning three plant functional types (deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, and grassland/crops) to derive color indices and estimate gross primary productivity (GPP). GPP was strongly correlated with greenness derived from camera imagery in all three plant functional types. Specifically, the beginning of the photosynthetic period in deciduous broadleaf forest and grassland/crops and the end of the photosynthetic period in grassland/crops were both correlated with changes in greenness; changes in redness were correlated with the end of the photosynthetic period in deciduous broadleaf forest. However, it was not possible to accurately identify the beginning or ending of the photosynthetic period using camera greenness in evergreen needleleaf forest. At deciduous broadleaf sites, anomalies in integrated greenness and total GPP were significantly correlated up to 60 days after the mean onset date for the start of spring. More generally, results from this work demonstrate that digital repeat photography can be used to quantify both the duration of the photosynthetically active period as well as total GPP in deciduous broadleaf forest and grassland/crops, but that new and different approaches are required before comparable results can be achieved in evergreen needleleaf forest.

Northern forest ecosystems make up an important part of the global carbon cycle. Hence, monitoring local-scale gross primary production (GPP) of northern forest is essential for understanding climatic change impacts on terrestrial carbon sequestration and for assessing and planning management practices. Here we evaluate and compare four methods for estimating GPP using Sentinel-2 data in order to improve current available GPP estimates: four empirical regression models based on either the 2-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) or the plant phenology index (PPI), an asymptotic light response function (LRF) model, and a light-use efficiency (LUE) model using the MOD17 algorithm. These approaches were based on remote sensing vegetation indices, air temperature (Tair), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). The models were parametrized and evaluated using in-situ data from eleven forest sites in North Europe, covering two common forest types, evergreen needleleaf forest and deciduous broadleaf forest. Most of the models gave good agreement with eddy covariance-derived GPP. The VI-based regression models performed well in evergreen needleleaf forest (R2 = 0.69–0.78, RMSE = 1.97–2.28 g C m−2 d−1, and NRMSE = 9–11.0%, eight sites), whereas the LRF and MOD17 performed slightly worse (R2 = 0.65 and 0.57, RMSE = 2.49 and 2.72 g C m−2 d−1, NRMSE = 12 and 13.0%, respectively). In deciduous broadleaf forest all models, except the LRF, showed close agreements with the observed GPP (R2 = 0.75–0.80, RMSE = 2.23–2.46 g C m−2 d−1, NRMSE = 11–12%, three sites). For the LRF model, R2 = 0.57, RMSE = 3.21 g C m−2 d−1, NRMSE = 16%. The results highlighted the necessity of improved models in evergreen needleleaf forest where the LUE approach gave poorer results., The simplest regression model using only PPI performed well beside more complex models, suggesting PPI to be a process indicator directly linked with GPP. All models were able to capture the seasonal dynamics of GPP well, but underestimation of the growing season peaks were a common issue. The LRF was the only model tending to overestimate GPP. Estimation of interannual variability in cumulative GPP was less accurate than the single-year models and will need further development. In general, all models performed well on local scale and demonstrated their feasibility for upscaling GPP in northern forest ecosystems using Sentinel-2 data.

Abstract. An accurate estimation of vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), which is the amount of carbon taken up by vegetation through photosynthesis for a given time and area, is critical for understanding terrestrial–atmosphere CO2 exchange processes and ecosystem functioning, as well as ecosystem responses and adaptations to climate change. Prior studies, based on ground, airborne, and satellite sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) observations, have recently revealed close relationships with GPP at different spatial and temporal scales and across different plant functional types (PFTs). However, questions remain regarding whether there is a unique relationship between SIF and GPP across different sites and PFTs and how we can improve GPP estimates using solely remotely sensed data. Using concurrent measurements of daily TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) SIF (daily SIFd); daily MODIS Terra and Aqua spectral reflectance; vegetation indices (VIs, notably normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv), and photochemical reflectance index (PRI)); and daily tower-based GPP across eight major different PFTs, including mixed forests, deciduous broadleaf forests, croplands, evergreen broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests, grasslands, open shrubland, and wetlands, the strength of the relationships between tower-based GPP and SIFd at 40 Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) flux sites was investigated. The synergy between SIFd and MODIS-based reflectance (R) and VIs to improve GPP estimates using a data-driven modeling approach was also evaluated. The results revealed that the strength of the hyperbolic relationship between GPP and SIFd was strongly site-specific and PFT-dependent. Furthermore, the generalized linear model (GLM), fitted between SIFd, GPP, and site and vegetation type as categorical variables, further supported this site- and PFT-dependent relationship between GPP and SIFd. Using random forest (RF) regression models with GPP as output and the aforementioned variables as predictors (R, SIFd, and VIs), this study also showed that the spectral reflectance bands (RF-R) and SIFd plus spectral reflectance (RF-SIF-R) models explained over 80 % of the seasonal and interannual variations in GPP, whereas the SIFd plus VI (RF-SIF-VI) model reproduced only 75 % of the tower-based GPP variance. In addition, the relative variable importance of predictors of GPP demonstrated that the spectral reflectance bands in the near-infrared, red, and SIFd appeared as the most influential and dominant factors determining GPP predictions, indicating the importance of canopy structure, biochemical properties, and vegetation functioning on GPP estimates. Overall, this study provides insights into understanding the strength of the relationships between GPP and SIF and the use of spectral reflectance and SIFd to improve estimates of GPP across sites and PFTs.

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest component of the global carbon cycle and a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. In this study, we used GPP estimates from a combination of eight global biome models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact-Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP2a), the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product, and a data-driven product (Model Tree Ensemble, MTE) to study the spatiotemporal variability of GPP at the regional and global levels. We found the 2000–2010 total global GPP estimated from the model ensemble to be 117 ± 13 Pg C yr−1 (mean ± 1 standard deviation), which was higher than MODIS (112 Pg C yr−1), and close to the MTE (120 Pg C yr−1). The spatial patterns of MODIS, MTE and ISIMIP2a GPP generally agree well, but their temporal trends are different, and the seasonality and inter-annual variability of GPP at the regional and global levels are not completely consistent. For the model ensemble, Tropical Latin America contributes the most to global GPP, Asian regions contribute the most to the global GPP trend, the Northern Hemisphere regions dominate the global GPP seasonal variations, and Oceania is likely the largest contributor to inter-annual variability of global GPP. However, we observed large uncertainties across the eight ISIMIP2a models, which are probably due to the differences in the formulation of underlying photosynthetic processes. The results of this study are useful in understanding the contributions of different regions to global GPP and its spatiotemporal variability, how the model- and observational-based GPP estimates differ from each other in time and space, and the relative strength of the eight models. Our results also highlight the models’ ability to capture the seasonality of GPP that are essential for understanding the inter-annual and seasonal variability of GPP as a major component of the carbon cycle.

Spatiotemporal dynamics in assimilated-LAI phenology and its impact on subtropical bamboo forest productivity

Over the last two and half decades, strong evidence showed that the terrestrial ecosystems are acting as a net sink for atmospheric carbon. However the spatial and temporal patterns of variation in the sink are not well known. In this study, we examined latitudinal patterns of interannual variability (IAV) in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 based on 163 site‐years of eddy covariance data, from 39 northern‐hemisphere research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼29°N to ∼64°N. We computed the standard deviation of annual NEE integrals at individual sites to represent absolute interannual variability (AIAV), and the corresponding coefficient of variation as a measure of relative interannual variability (RIAV). Our results showed decreased trends of annual NEE with increasing latitude for both deciduous broadleaf forests and evergreen needleleaf forests. Gross primary production (GPP) explained a significant proportion of the spatial variation of NEE across evergreen needleleaf forests, whereas, across deciduous broadleaf forests, it is ecosystem respiration (Re). In addition, AIAV in GPP and Re increased significantly with latitude in deciduous broadleaf forests, but AIAV in GPP decreased significantly with latitude in evergreen needleleaf forests. Furthermore, RIAV in NEE, GPP, and Re appeared to increase significantly with latitude in deciduous broadleaf forests, but not in evergreen needleleaf forests. Correlation analyses showed air temperature was the primary environmental factor that determined RIAV of NEE in deciduous broadleaf forest across the North American sites, and none of the chosen climatic factors could explain RIAV of NEE in evergreen needleleaf forests. Mean annual NEE significantly increased with latitude in grasslands. Precipitation was dominant environmental factor for the spatial variation of magnitude and IAV in GPP and Re in grasslands.

Vegetation phenology is a key biological indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystems and global change, and regions with the most obvious phenological changes in vegetation are primarily located at high latitudes and altitudes. Over the past three decades, investigations of obvious phenological changes in vegetation at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere have provided significant contributions to understanding global climate change. In this study, phenological parameters were extracted from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of vegetation phenological changes above 40°N in the Northern Hemisphere from 1982–2013. The results showed that the start of season (SOS) was significantly advanced (−2.2 ± 0.6 days·decade−1, p < 0.05) and that the end of season (EOS) was slightly delayed (0.78 ± 0.6 days·decade−1, p = 0.21) over the entire study area in the initial 21 years (1982–2002). When the time scale was extended to 2013, the change rate of the SOS and EOS was significantly reduced; in addition, the SOS was delayed (3.2 ± 1.7 days·decade−1, p < 0.05), and the EOS was advanced (4.5 ± 0.9 days·decade−1, p < 0.05) over the entire study area in the last 11 years (2003–2013). The trends of advanced SOS and delayed EOS over the past three decades were slower than those over the initial two decades on a hemispheric scale. The change trends showed obvious variability with different vegetation types and were greater for woody plants than for herbaceous plants. For broad-leaved forest, the SOS was significantly advanced (2 ± 0.5 days·decade−1, p < 0.05) and the EOS was significantly delayed (2.7 ± 0.6 days·decade−1, p < 0.05) from 1982–2013. The trend of delayed EOS was greater than that of advanced SOS for different vegetation types. With respect to the spatial distribution of phenological trends in the Northern Hemisphere, the trends of advanced SOS and delayed EOS were strongest in Europe followed by North America, and the trends were least significant in Asia. Coniferous forest, shrub forest, grassland, and the entire study area have the same change trends for the two time periods (1982–2002 and 2003–2013), and the increased rate of the phenology parameters has decelerated over the most recent decade. The length of season (LOS) of broad-leaved forest and mixed forest over the past 32 years shows a strong increased trend, and simultaneously, the SOS and EOS show an advanced trend and a delayed trend, respectively

Accurate phenological extraction is important for estimating carbon uptake in terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. The emergence of remotely sensed vegetation indices (VIs) and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides multiple approaches for extracting land surface phenology. However, there is lacking studies to track phenological metrics via multiple VIs and SIF. Therefore, the advantage of combining VIs and SIF to estimate more accurate phenology requires exploration. In this study, we combined the advantages of the normalized difference, enhanced, green‐red, near‐infrared reflectance vegetation indices from MCD43A4 data set, and SIF from CSIF data set to estimate hybrid phenology at 20 eddy flux sites in North America. Results showed that the hybrid phenology derived from the best‐performing start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season among multiple VIs and SIF for each plant functional type and site were both more consistent with those derived from gross primary production (GPP). Specifically, the R2 of hybrid phenology increased by 0.11–0.4 (0.04–0.4) for SOS, 0.01–0.24 (0.09–0.22) for EOS, 0.01–0.7 (0.05–0.34) for the length of the growing season (LOS) based on Gaussian (logistic) method. Moreover, hybrid phenology can improve the explanation of the seasonal and annual variations in GPP. The explanatory power of hybrid phenology for GPP variations increased by 0.05–0.15 (0.02–0.23) for SOS, 0–0.36 (0.11–0.27) for EOS, 0.01–0.51 (0.03–0.4) for LOS, 0.04–0.18 (0.04–0.16) for LOS seasonal GPP maximum based on Gaussian (logistic) method. These findings highlight the potential of combining high‐spatiotemporal structural and coarse‐spatiotemporal physiological vegetation indicators in tracking phenology and GPP.

Abstract. Satellite-based models have been widely used to simulate vegetation gross primary production (GPP) at the site, regional, or global scales in recent years. However, accurately reproducing the interannual variations in GPP remains a major challenge, and the long-term changes in GPP remain highly uncertain. In this study, we generated a long-term global GPP dataset at 0.05∘ latitude by 0.05∘ longitude and 8 d interval by revising a light use efficiency model (i.e., EC-LUE model). In the revised EC-LUE model, we integrated the regulations of several major environmental variables: atmospheric CO2 concentration, radiation components, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These environmental variables showed substantial long-term changes, which could greatly impact the global vegetation productivity. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements at 95 towers from the FLUXNET2015 dataset, covering nine major ecosystem types around the globe, were used to calibrate and validate the model. In general, the revised EC-LUE model could effectively reproduce the spatial, seasonal, and annual variations in the tower-estimated GPP at most sites. The revised EC-LUE model could explain 71 % of the spatial variations in annual GPP over 95 sites. At more than 95 % of the sites, the correlation coefficients (R2) of seasonal changes between tower-estimated and model-simulated GPP are larger than 0.5. Particularly, the revised EC-LUE model improved the model performance in reproducing the interannual variations in GPP, and the averaged R2 between annual mean tower-estimated and model-simulated GPP is 0.44 over all 55 sites with observations longer than 5 years, which is significantly higher than those of the original EC-LUE model (R2=0.36) and other LUE models (R2 ranged from 0.06 to 0.30 with an average value of 0.16). At the global scale, GPP derived from light use efficiency models, machine learning models, and process-based biophysical models shows substantial differences in magnitude and interannual variations. The revised EC-LUE model quantified the mean global GPP from 1982 to 2017 as 106.2±2.9 Pg C yr−1 with the trend 0.15 Pg C yr−1. Sensitivity analysis indicated that GPP simulated by the revised EC-LUE model was sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration, VPD, and radiation. Over the period of 1982–2017, the CO2 fertilization effect on the global GPP (0.22±0.07 Pg C yr−1) could be partly offset by increased VPD (-0.17±0.06 Pg C yr−1). The long-term changes in the environmental variables could be well reflected in global GPP. Overall, the revised EC-LUE model is able to provide a reliable long-term estimate of global GPP. The GPP dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8942336.v3 (Zheng et al., 2019).

Gross and aboveground net primary production at Canadian forest carbon flux sites

Alpine ecosystems are sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we extracted three phonological parameters, viz. the start of the growing season (SOS), the end of the growing season (EOS), and the length of the growing season (LOS) from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset during 2000–2019 for alpine grasslands across the three parallel rivers region (TPRR), and also examined the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the three phenological parameters in seasonally frozen ground regions (hereafter referred to as SFGR) in response to climate change. The results showed that the multiyear mean SOS gradually delayed from 100 to 160 days along higher elevation, EOS advanced as a whole (from 320 to 280 days), and LOS shortened (from 210 to 130 days). The multiyear mean spatial distribution of all the three parameters showed significant north-to-south differences in the TPRR. In general, the variation trends in all the phenological parameters were not significant (p > 0.05) in the past 20 years, where SOS was advanced by 0.16 days year−l, EOS delayed by 0.08 days year−l, and consequently LOS extended at a rate of 0.07 days year−l, likely due to the warming and drying climate during the study period. In addition, annual mean temperature (AMT) was negatively correlated with SOS (50.26%) and positively correlated with EOS and LOS (72.25 and 60%, respectively). As for the annual mean total precipitation (AMP), it was positively correlated with SOS and EOS (50.77 and 52.97%, respectively) and negatively correlated with LOS (52.07%). Furthermore, a higher freezing index led to a delayed SOS and an advanced EOS and a shortened LOS at the regional scale. Similar to AMT, a higher thawing index advanced the SOS, delayed the EOS, and extended the LOS. Our results confirmed the importance of climate and permafrost status on vegetation phenological processes and also contributed toward understanding the response of cold region ecosystems to global climate change.