The Impact of Non-Resident Demand on Housing Prices in Corsica

Relationship between urban land price and housing price: Evidence from 21 provincial capitals in China

There have been unprecedented swings in the real price of owner-occupied housing in the past two decades. These price changes may have affected household wellbeing in a number of ways, including through their effects on child development. However, there has been little research on the impact of the price of housing on child development, and no research on the longer run effects of the variations in the price of housing experienced during childhood. We merge longitudinal data on child and young adult outcomes with information on local house prices and market rents, and analyze both the short and long term effects of the price of housing experienced during childhood. The results indicate that the variations in a metropolitan area’s price of owner-occupied housing has a small negative effect on children’s mathematical achievement, but no consistent impact on reading achievement, behavior problems, or a child’s body-mass index. A higher average price of housing experienced during childhood has a negative effect on the wage rate of young adults, consistent with the negative effect on childhood mathematical achievement. However, the main finding is that the fluctuations in the price of housing in the past two decades have little impact on children.

China has been undergoing significant social and economic structural changes since launching its policy of economic reform and opening up in 1978. This has involved a transformation from a centrally planned economy, where there is no role for the market, to a market-oriented economy in which market principles play a major role. During the last four decades, great achievements have been made in terms of economic growth and social well-being. To name a few indicators: the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country increased from USD 189.65 billion in 1980 to USD 10.866 trillion in 2015, positioning China as the second largest economy in the world, with an average annual growth rate over 10%. Meanwhile, poverty levels have greatly improved. The poverty headcount ratio at USD 1.90 a day (2011 PPP) has decreased dramatically, from 42.15% in 1981 to 10.68% in 2013. The rapid economic growth, combined with the reform of the Hukou registration system, has also accelerated the migration flow from rural areas to urban areas. The population living in urban China in 2015 reached 763 million, making the urbanisation level of 55.61%, almost three times that in 1980. With the rapid growth of the urban population, the welfare-based public housing provision system founded in the central planning era could no longer meet the increasing housing demand of urban residents. Thus, in 1994, comprehensive housing reforms were implemented, aiming to privatize the public housing sector and promote a housing allocation system based on market principles. The milestone of housing reform occurred in 1998, when the government completely suspended the traditional housing allocation system, making the housing market the only way to access housing services (Wang et al. 2012). The emergence of the private urban housing market spurred both housing transactions and prices. In 1998, the housing area traded on the market was approximately 108 million square metres on an average transaction price of 1854 yuan/m2. These two figures were nearly ten and three times higher in 2014, soaring to 1.05 billion square metres and 5933 yuan/m2, respectively. At the regional level, rapid economic development has been accompanied by increasing inequality. Soon after the launch of the economic reforms, some coastal regions, Guangdong and Zhejiang in Eastern China, for example, grew quickly, due to the influx of foreign direct investment (FDI), advanced technologies and equipment, and favourable policies of the central government. The ‘core’ position of these regions in the national economy was further enhanced through a self-reinforcing process (Anderson 2012, p.127), shaping a core-periphery economic structure in China. In 1980, the regional gross product of Eastern China accounted for 43.69% of total GDP in China, while in 2014 this ratio increased to 51.16%, reflecting the polarization of economic activities. Reflecting the distribution of economic activities, the inequality in the cost of housing between regions is also striking. In 2014, the average sale price in 35 main cities in mainland China was approximately 8599 yuan/m2, with the standard error also high, at 4651 yuan/m2, making the coefficient of variance 0.54, thus indicating a high degree of heterogeneity across this city-level housing market. The left panel of Figure 1.1 shows the spatial distribution of average house prices. It is apparent that the prices in the coastal cities of Eastern China are generally greater than the prices of inland cities. However, the picture of house price dynamics is a little different. From 2002 to 2014, the rapid growth in house prices, on average 11.38% per year, seems to be anational phenomenon and there is very little variance between the annual growth rates in different cities; the coefficient of variance is only 0.18, much lower than that of the house price level. Perhaps the most prominent spatial pattern of house price growth rate is that the northeastern cities experienced the lowest price appreciation during the period 2002-2014. This dissertation is fundamentally concerned with the spatial patterns of house prices and their dynamics across cities in China. Although literature on the Chinese housing market has been emerging in recent years, little is known about the spatial interaction of regional housing markets. The following four chapters will be dedicated to responding to questions concerning the emerging market: Why is there a core-periphery structure in the distribution of interurban house prices? To what extent are the house price developments across cities similar? How do house price dynamics in one city affect the house price changes in other cities? The investigation of the spatial dimension of the Chinese housing market has been always hampered by the quality of the data, especially when analysing house price dynamics. This situation has inspired the pursuit of research to construct house price indexes that reflect the house price changes as accurately as possible. In line with a key theme of this study, particular a

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the house market in Malaysia from 2002 to 2015. Specifically, the macroeconomic determinants on the house price and house demand are investigated.Design/methodology/approachStructural Vector Autoregressive Regression was adopted to estimate the unexpected changes in both house demand (residential transaction volume) and prices based on economic theoretical reasoning that consider shock from macroeconomic determinants.FindingsThe transaction volume and real house prices respond to most of the macroeconomic shocks. While the impact of real gross domestic product (GDP) on house prices appears to be stronger and longer in comparison to other macroeconomic shocks, a 60 per cent change in house prices can be explained by real GDP regardless of whether it is in the short run or the long run. The studies also reveal that a positive effective exchange rate plays an important role when demonstrating the transaction volume. Moreover, monetary liquidity plays a major role in justifying the transaction volume. This implies that mortgage lending may have an impact on housing demand. Meanwhile, movements of house prices cannot be explained by the demand in quantity. This signifies that supply has a strong influence in determining the price.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has implications on policymakers of which the interest rate as a cooling measure might not be effective in the short run. The interest rate has very little impact on housing prices. Furthermore, policymakers should address the concerns on speculations, as the results reveal that monetary liquidity and the exchange rate have a strong impact on the housing demand.Originality/valueThis study seeks to provide answers regarding the recent upsurge of Malaysian housing prices. Besides focusing on the house price changes, this study addresses the role of transaction volume while evaluating the house market, as housing prices are usually downwards rigid. Since the price and transaction volume are both related to the transaction activity, this study is significant and could be a good reflection on the actual demand behaviour in the residential market.

PurposeThe present study aims to investigate the relationship between building regulations, urban planning, and perceptions of housing affordability and prices in Prishtina, Kosovo.Design/methodology/approachA self-report survey with 1,000 respondents, selected through stratified probability sampling, provided the necessary data. Principal component analysis was applied to the questionnaire's internal structure, while regression analysis helped uncover housing affordability and housing prices perception predictors.FindingsThe study found that building regulation standards and zoning/land-use regulations reveal positive relationships with housing prices and housing affordability perception. Among these components, building regulations and standards show a stronger connection with housing affordability and price perception in comparison to urban planning and development.Research limitations/implicationsBy investigating the relationship between building regulations, urban planning, and housing affordability and price perception in Prishtina, the present research makes a valuable contribution to the existing literature. The findings of this research hold significant implications for policymakers, urban planners, and developers, highlighting the relevance of adopting a well-balanced approach to building regulations and urban planning in order to uphold and maintain housing affordability and understand housing price dynamics.Originality/valueThe novelty of this research originates from the investigation of these relationships within a rapidly urbanizing city context, contributing to a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics between regulatory policies and outcomes in the housing market. Further research should examine additional dimensions and employ longitudinal designs to gain a deeper understanding of the components predicting housing affordability and price perception in Prishtina and similar urban contexts.

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to address a key issue fundamental to the operation of land and housing markets, that is, the relationship between land and house prices. The study identifies possible causation between established house and vacant allotment prices using the metropolitan area of Adelaide, Australia as a case study.Design/methodology/approach– A key outcome of the study is the construction of a Site Adjusted Land Price Index against which a Quality Adjusted House Price Index is compared.Findings– The results show that there is a lagged effect of land prices on house prices and that this is significant at an interval of eight lag periods. The results also imply that the lead lag relationship between established house and vacant allotment prices is not unidirectional. This suggests that, while a change in house prices leads to a change in land prices in the short-run, the long-run position is for increasing land prices to lead to a delayed increase in house prices.Research limitations/implications– Rising house prices do not simply and solely reflect a shortage of land. There are suggested effects both immediate from house to land and delayed from land to house, particularly in a rising market.Originality/value– The lead lag relationships of both indexes are tested using Granger causality estimates to assess whether theoretical Ricardian concepts still hold in a modern urban land market.

This paper applies a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) approach to estimate the relative effects of housing and stock prices on US consumption over time. We use annual data from 1890 to 2012 and find that over different horizons and over time, generally the housing price positively affects consumption while the stock price negatively affects consumption. These opposite responses to changes in housing and stock prices suggest different mechanisms through which wealth affects consumption. Further, the housing price effect proves larger in absolute value than the stock price effect after 1980. Between 1980 and 2007, housing wealth generally exerted a larger effect on consumption. This sub-period includes the 1997/2002 asset price boom/bust where house prices continued to rise moderately as stock prices fell. Finally, the co-occurrence of the decline in both housing and stock prices during the 2007-2009 episode produced bigger effects of the housing price for the first five years of the impulse responses while the higher magnitude of the stock price effect appears in the 6-year horizon. These findings suggest that the magnitude of the relative price effects differs with both time and horizons and also depends on whether prices increase or decrease.

Most existing studies empirically investigated the impact of rail transit on housing prices using the traditional hedonic price model, which is based on ordinary least squares (OLS). This method can estimate only the average implicit prices of housing characteristics and may ignore possible heterogeneous impacts of rail transit at different housing price levels. As a useful supplement to OLS regression, quantile regression can measure how implicit prices of explanatory variables vary across different price levels, thereby providing a comprehensive picture of the relationship between housing characteristics and prices. By using Hangzhou, China as an example, this study adopts the traditional hedonic price model and quantile regression model to investigate the capitalization effect of a new subway line on housing prices. Empirical results suggest the significant impacts of accessibility to subway stations. The average housing price within 2 km of the station is 2.1% to 6.1% higher than those outside. We also find that the impacts of the subway differ significantly across the distribution of housing prices, wherein the absolute value of estimated coefficients increased from 0.023 for the 15th quantile to 0.086 for the 95th quantile. The subway opening strengthens the capitalization effect of traffic accessibility. The absolute value of price elasticity increases from 0.044 to 0.053, and the range of influence is expanded from 1500 m to 2000 m.

Purpose - This study aims to explore the relationship between housing and land prices, with a specific emphasis on the impact of government policies on these factors such as land supply quantity and the ratio of residential land to total land supplied. The goal is to identify the most effective government intervention strategies for controlling both housing and land prices. Design/methodology/approach - Data from 70 primary and medium-sized cities in China spanning from 2003 to 2017 are utilized in this research. The analysis employs a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, with a primary focus on examining the relationships among housing prices, land prices, and government intervention policies. Findings - Housing and land prices are influenced by various factors. Through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, it is observed that both housing and land prices are predominantly influenced by their internal dynamics, with comparatively weaker effects attributed to policy interventions. Research implications or Originality - By investigating the impact of government policies on housing and land prices, This study establishes a foundation for effective price control measures. Our study advocates for a comprehensive examination of China's land supply mechanism to enhance understanding of the pathways through which government policies influence the markets.

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the evolution of house prices in China and especially the effects of different financing channels on China’s house prices.Design/methodology/approachThe author use the own theoretical framework and proceed to test the testable hypotheses by using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test approach for cointegration analysis and the unrestricted error correction model. Quarterly time series data from Q1 2002 to Q2 2016 are used.FindingsThe results suggest that in the short run, bank loans to real estate development and scale of shadow banking have significant positive effects on house prices. In the long run, the scale of shadow banking and disposable income affects house prices positively and significantly.Originality/valueThis study provides more insights into how and to the extent different financing channels affect China’s house prices, particularly the impact of shadow banking on the house prices.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a major global economic recession, to which policymakers around the world responded with massive fiscal and monetary support. While housing prices generally fall during economic downturns, they have risen during the pandemic in all OECD countries. A number of factors may have contributed, including expansionary monetary policy, the lifting of some macro-prudential constraints and a shift in housing preferences. This paper uses monthly data to examine the behaviour of real house and flat prices during the pandemic in Sweden, at the national level and in the three biggest cities. While a model containing usual determinants of housing prices tracked price developments well before the pandemic, it underestimates house prices and generally overestimates flat prices in the pandemic period. This suggests a preference shift from flats towards houses, which is consistent with findings from the recent literature on other countries. The introduction of mortgage amortisation requirements in 2016 and 2018 is estimated to have lowered housing prices. However, their lifting during the pandemic seems to have had a relatively minor effect on housing prices.

PurposeThis study aims to examine the determinants that influence housing prices in Dammam metropolitan area (DMA), Saudi Arabia, by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model. The study considers determinants such as building age (BLD AG), building size (BLD SZ), building condition (BLD CN), access to parking (ACC PK), proximity to transport infrastructure (PRX TRS), proximity to green areas (PRX GA) and proximity to amenities (PRX AM).Design/methodology/approachThe AHP decision model was used to assess the determinants of housing prices in DMA, using a pair-wise comparison matrix to determine the influence of the investigated factors on housing prices.FindingsThe study’s results revealed that building size (BLD SZ) was the most critical determinant affecting housing prices in DMA, with a weight of 0.32, trailed by proximity to transport infrastructure (PRX TRS), with a weight of 0.24 as the second most influential housing price determinant in DMA. The third most important determinant was proximity to amenities (PRX AM), with a weight of 0.18.Originality/valueThis study addresses a research gap by using the AHP model to assess the spatial determinants of housing prices in DMA, Saudi Arabia. Few studies have used this model in examining housing price factors, particularly in the context of Saudi Arabia. Consequently, the findings of this study provide unique insights for policymakers, housing developers and other stakeholders in understanding the importance of building size, proximity to transport infrastructure and proximity to amenities in influencing housing prices in DMA. By considering these determinants, stakeholders can make informed decisions to improve housing quality and prices in the region.

This paper studies the cyclical properties of real GDP, house prices, credit, and nominal liquid financial assets in 17 EU countries, by applying several methods to extract cycles. The estimates confirm earlier findings of large medium-term cycles in credit volumes and house prices. GDP appears to be subject to fluctuations at both business-cycle and medium-term frequencies, and GDP fluctuations at medium-term frequencies are strongly correlated with cycles in credit and house prices. Cycles in equity prices and long-term interest rates are considerably shorter than those in credit and house prices and have little in common with the latter. Credit and house price cycles are weakly synchronous across countries and their volatilities vary widely - these differences may be related to the structural properties of housing and mortgage markets. Finally, DSGE models can replicate the volatility of cycles in house and equity prices, but not the persistence of house price cycles.

Discussion

Diffusion and Risks of House Prices in the Netherlands