The impact of Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index, and Foreign Direct Investment on unemployment: A case of South Africa

This study explores the nexus between population growth and unemployment in South Africa from 2000 to 2023, a period marked by significant demographic changes and economic challenges. South Africa has experienced rising unemployment alongside rapid population growth, which has led to concerns about the country’s ability to absorb its expanding labour force. The aim of this research is to examine how population growth influences unemployment, considering additional factors like foreign direct investment (FDI), gross domestic product (GDP), and inflation. Using time series data from the World Bank, Statistics South Africa, and the South African Reserve Bank, the study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for stationarity, Johansen cointegration for long-term relationships, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to estimate the impact of population growth on unemployment. Key findings indicate that population growth has a positive and statistically significant relationship with unemployment, meaning higher population growth increases unemployment levels. Foreign direct investment also shows a positive effect on unemployment, while GDP and inflation exhibit negative but statistically insignificant relationships. Based on these findings, the study recommends strategic urban planning, family planning initiatives, and targeted policies to attract labour-intensive FDI. Additionally, the government should focus on economic diversification, supporting SMEs, and investing in skill development to create sustainable jobs. This research contributes to understanding the dynamics between population growth and unemployment in South Africa and offers insights for more effective policy interventions.

There are over a billion young adults between the ages of 15 and 24 years in the world. It is estimated that 85% of these young working-age adults live in developing countries which offer few opportunities for productive work. One of the greatest challenges facing the world and South Africa is to enhance the skills level of young people in developing countries. Young people in South Africa account for approximately 60% of the working age population and also account for 70% of all unemployed persons in South Africa. In order to address both the problem of low skills level and the rising unemployment level, the Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP) can be used as a starting point. History has shown that labour-intensive methods of production (labour-intensive traditional methods) have long been used in creating remarkable infrastructure projects. Investment in infrastructure has a huge potential to redress the high unemployment and poverty levels in South Africa and also to correct the skills deficits in disadvantaged communities. From a theoretical perspective, supported by experience elsewhere in Africa, there are reasons for considering that properly formulated labour-intensive public works programmes and projects could be established to construct and maintain the required physical infrastructure, thus creating employment, skills and institutional capacities. This paper will explore the past African experiences in implementing public works programmes and projects with regard to their successes and problems. The paper will then examine how initiatives such as skills development and the Expanded Public Works Programmes (EPWP) can be used to address the low skills level and the rising level of unemployment in South Africa. The paper closes with some recommendations for skills development in the future. Key words: Labour-intensive, public works, poverty, unemployment, skills.

The dynamic impact of financial market capitalisation on South Africa’s unemployment and economic growth is empirically explored in this study using the finance-augmented Solow model framework. South Africa’s high rate of structural unemployment and its robust financial market, which is at the same standard as those in countries with advanced economies, served as the driving force for the study. Evidence for the dynamic link is presented by a time series analysis that employed the VECM model. South Africa continues to face persistent macroeconomic issues, including stagnant economic growth, declining investment, and rising unemployment. Market capitalisation, net acquisition of financial assets, and foreign direct investment all have a favourable and substantial effect on economic growth. According to VECM estimation results, unemployment has a detrimental effect on economic growth. Also, market capitalisation has significant positive effects on economic growth. Unemployment and economic growth are inversely related, thus unemployment has an adverse effect on economic growth. According to the findings, financial markets have distinct effects on economic growth because of their various functions within the economy. It was also shown that foreign direct investment has a crucial role in increasing economic growth. This implies the important role that the financial market and systems have in South Africa’s economic growth. The article advises authorities to keep enacting measures to boost capital market growth to increase employment, while also making sure that other structural issues affecting the labour market are effectively addressed to stimulate job creation.

Foreign direct investment contributes to stimulating sustainable economic growth of each country, but economic growth plays an important role in attracting foreign direct investment. The empirical method was employed on a secondary time series data set during the period 2003-2018 to determine the impact of gross domestic product at current prices on foreign direct investment in Vietnam using a linear approach. The empirical results find that the relationship between gross domestic product and foreign direct investment is a positive sign at 1% significant level. Moreover, the study also shows that business freedom index and investment freedom index has a positive effect on foreign direct investment at 5% significant level. Based on the findings, the article recommends that Vietnam continues to seek positive solutions to enhance the economic growth rate, continuation in investment and business liberalization.

This paper investigates Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Freedom and Economic Growth of Nigeria between 1995 and 2018. Specifically, the data on: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, Economic Freedom (Aggregate index) and the data on real gross domestic product (RGDP) were used during the analysis. Time-series data were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root test method. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) estimation method was adopted to examine the effect of FDI, Economic Freedom on Economic growth. The interactive effect of FDI and Economic Freedom on Economic growth was determined using regression analysis while Granger Causality test method was adopted for determining the causality relationship among the variables. The result of the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) suggests that both FDI and Economic freedom do not have a significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The result of regression analysis shows that the joint coefficient of both FDI and EF is negative and not significant. The result of Granger Causality revealed that there is a uni-directional relationship between RGDP and FDI and between EF and FDI respectively. The research recommends that the federal government of Nigeria should adopt appropriate foreign trade strategies to enhance the impact of FDI on economic growth in Nigeria.

This study examines the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth of Nigeria. The main objective of the study is to explore and quantify the contribution of Foreign Direct inflows to economic growth in Nigeria and other macro-economic variable(s). The model built for the study proxy real gross domestic product as the endogenous variable measuring economic growth as a function of Foreign Direct Investment,Domestic capital, Government Expenditure, real exchange rate and Inflation rate as the exogenous variables in the first model while unemployment was expressed as a function of Foreign Direct Investment, Governmentexpenditure and real GDP. Annual time series data was gathered from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the World Economic Outlook spanning 1970 to 2013. The study used econometric techniques of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, pairwise granger causality test,Johansen co-integration test and error correction model (ECM) for empirical analysis. The results of unit rootrevealed that, all the variables in the model were integrated at first difference while pairwise granger causality revealed a unidirectional relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Economic growth (GDP) in Nigeria and no causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and unemployment rate. The co-integration test shows that, long-run equilibrium relationship exists among the variables captured in model but model 2 revealed no hypothesized co-integrating equation. FDI had positive but not statistically significantrelationship with Nigerians economy growth in both the short and long run. The findings from the error correction method show that, the distortion in will adjust itself to equilibrium at 0.3% in each period which is very slow in adjusting to equilibrium in case of any distortion. The study recommends that, the government need to aggressively initiate policies to channel the Nation's domestic savings for investment purposes and enact policies to train human capital to argument increasing FDI into the country to stimulate the economy towards rapid and sustained economic growth.

In this study, we have empirically examined the impact of unemployment on economic growth in South Africa, using time series data from 1994Q1 to 2017Q4. The study made use of the error correction model in determining the relationship between unemployment and economic growth. In addition to economic growth and unemployment, four control variables were added to the model. These were government expenditure, inflation, investment and household final consumption expenditure. Using the error correction model (ECM), the results of the study reveal that there is a negative relationship between unemployment and economic growth in South Africa. An increase in unemployment in South Africa would reduce the rate of economic growth. Based on the research findings, where unemployment was found to have a negative impact on economic growth in the study country, the South African authorities responsible for economic policy are recommended to formulate and enhance policies that aim at reducing unemployment in the country.

Aims: The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Industry Value Added (IVA), Urban Population (UP), Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Energy Intensity in G20 countries.
 Study Design: This research used a quantitative descriptive method using panel data analysis.
 Place and Duration of Study: The scope of this research extends to G20 member countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, European Union, France, United Kingdom, Indonesia, India, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Rusia, Saudi Arabia, Turki, United States, and South Africa, between 1990-2021.
 Methodology: This research uses descriptive method combined with panel data analysis, analyze determine of GDP, IVA, UP, Trade, and FDI on Energy Intensity in G20 countries. Furthermore, the data uses is secondary data that has a regression model on panel data from 1990-2021.
 Results: The result of this research show that IVA has a positive relationship and has a significant effect on increasing energy intensity in G20 countries. GDP, Trade and UP variables have a negative relationship and have a significant effect on Energy Intensity in G20 countries. Meanwhile, the FDI variable has no significant effect on Energy Intensity in G20 countries.
 Conclusion: Based on research result, Energy Intensity in G20 countries is influenced by various factors, The IVA factor has a positive and significant relationship with energy intensity, can be utilized to increase productivity and economic growth, but need to be balanced with effort to increase energy efficiency.
 While the GDP, Trade and Urban Population factors have a negative and significant relationship to energy intensity. However, FDI does not have a significant effect on energy intensity in G20 countries. The government should consider policies to reduce dependence on intensive energy, especially in sector that have a negative relation with energy intensity such as GDP, trade and urban population.

Using time series data covering the years 1980 to 2020, this study examines the effects of government spending, population growth, and economic expansion on unemployment in the context of South Africa. The study’s variables include government spending, population growth, and economic growth as independent factors, and unemployment as the dependent variable. To ascertain the study’s outcomes, basic descriptive statistics, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the Johansen Cointegration Procedures, the Augmented Dicky-Fuller Test (ADF), and diagnostic tests were used. Since all the variables are stationary at the first difference, the ADF results show that there isn’t a unit root issue. According to the Johansen cointegration estimation, there is a long-term relationship amongst the variables. Hence the choice of VECM to estimate the outcomes. Our results suggests that a rise in government spending will result in a rise in South Africa’s unemployment rate. The findings also suggest that there is a negative correlation between unemployment and population growth. This implies that as the overall population grows, unemployment will decline. Additionally, the findings suggest that unemployment and economic growth in South Africa are positively correlated. This contradicts a number of economic theories, including Keynesian and Okuns Law, which hold that unemployment and economic growth are inversely correlated.

The study empirically investigates the determinants of youth unemployment in South Africa using quarterly time series data from the period of 2008 to 2015. The main objective of this study is to investigate the main determinants of youth unemployment in South Africa. The study used or employed Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The variables used in this study are Youth unemployment, education, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), all these variables affect youth unemployment directly and indirectly. The data for this study was obtained from International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and South Africa reserve bank (SARB). The results showed that education has a negative relationship and statistically significant to youth unemployment. Diagnostic and stability tests revealed that the model is good and stable in determining the impact of the determinants of youth unemployment.

Unemployment and earnings inequality have moved together remarkably closely in South Africa in recent years. This article explores the relationship between unemployment and earnings inequality in South Africa, investigating the extent to which changes in unemployment can account for changes in earnings inequality. Static and dynamic decompositions of earnings inequality by employment status reveal the centrality of unemployment in accounting for the both level and trend of earnings inequality. The distribution of employment in the formal and informal sectors is found to be of lesser importance in explaining earnings inequality, as is wage dispersion within each of these categories. The findings point to the central importance of reducing unemployment in South Africa if the extremely high levels of inequality are to be reduced.

Unemployment and earnings inequality have moved closely together in South Africa in recent years, suggesting that there may not be a trade-off between them as the literature generally suggests. This article explores the relationship between unemployment and earnings inequality in South Africa, specifically investigating the extent to which changes in unemployment can account for changes in earnings inequality. Decomposing overall income inequality by factor source shows the overwhelming importance of earnings in income inequality more generally. Decomposing earnings inequality by employment status reveals the centrality of unemployment in accounting for the level and trend of earnings inequality. The distribution of employment in the formal and informal sectors is found to be of lesser importance in explaining earnings inequality, as is wage dispersion within each of these categories. The findings point to the critical importance of reducing unemployment in South Africa if the extremely high levels of inequality are to be addressed.

Realization of investment in Indonesia is dominated by foreign investors where capital intensive sector such as mining industry is the primary focus. To strengthen their roles in national economies, foreign investors should be directed to plantation sector since it has huge role in labor absorption and positive trade balance. According to MP3EI, realization of investment in plantation sector has reached 2.29 percent in march 2013 which was still below of target. This research aimed to analyze determinants of foreign direct investment conducted vector error correction model analysis and formulated strategies by using SWOT matrix to increase Indonesia plantation sector. Variables used in this model were foreign direct investment, exports value, exchange rates, domestic interest rates, interest rates in United State of America, consumer price index, gross domestic product and crisis as dummy variable. The strategy alternatives were formulated by SWOT model based on the questionnaire and respondents interview designed in analytical hierarchy process framework. The result from model suggested that in the short term exchange rate, value of exports, United States interest rates, gross domestic product and consumer price index had positive impact to foreign direct investment. On the other side crisis had negative impact. Meanwhile in long term, domestic interest rates, gross domestic product and consumer price index had positive impact but crisis had negative contribution. The strategy priority to increase foreign direct investment in Indoensia plantation sector can be undertaken through harmonization between central and local governments regulations. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Vector Error Correction Model, SWOT Matrix

Economic Growth and Youth Unemployment in South Africa: A Dynamic Analysis of Structural Constraints and Policy Implications

Youth entrepreneurship is considered an important factor in economic growth, job creation, and poverty alleviation. Although youth entrepreneurship is considered a key to addressing unemployment, the youth unemployment rate remains worrisome in developing countries. This paper assessed the entrepreneurship training in universities as a means of reducing youth unemployment. Youth unemployment is an impediment to inclusive economic development, limits the earning potential and future prospects of a new generation of South Africans, stymies business growth, threatens social cohesion, and puts pressure on government resources. Data was collected from the Durban University of Technology students in Durban. A qualitative approach was adopted in which semi structured interviews were used to obtain an understanding of the importance of universities in reducing the rate of unemployment in South Africa. In addition, nonprobability sampling, specifically purposive was used in the study to select the Durban University of Technology’s benefiting students from the Durban Entrepreneurship Centre. The data collected was coded and analysed using thematic analysis. The findings revealed that universities play a crucial role in supporting youth entrepreneurship in South Africa, which has led to a reduction in the rate of unemployment in South Africa. Findings were categorised into themes. Universities’ effort to reduce unemployment has yielded positive results, however, both the students and the universities are faced with a number of challenges. It is recommended that universities work together with the government to design strategies that help to reduce unemployment in South Africa.