The Impact of Dynamic Data Assimilation on the Numerical Simulations of the QE II Cyclone and an Analysis of the Jet Streak Influencing the Precyclogenetic Environment

Abstract

A mesoscale numerical model is combined with a dynamic data assimilation via Newtonian relaxation, or 'nudging', to provide initial conditions for subsequent simulations of the QE II cyclone. Both the nudging technique and the inclusion of supplementary data are shown to have a large positive impact on the simulation of the QE II cyclone during the initial phase of rapid cyclone development. Within the initial development period (from 1200 to 1800 UTC 9 September 1978), the dynamic assimilation of operational and bogus data yields a coherent two-layer divergence pattern that is not well defined in the model run using only the operational data and static initialization. Diagnostic analysis based on the simulations show that the initial development of the QE II storm between 0000 UTC 9 September and 0000 UTC 10 September was embedded within an indirect circulation of an intense 300-hPa jet streak, was related to baroclinic processes extending throughout a deep portion of the troposphere, and was associated with a classic two-layer mass-divergence profile expected for an extratropical cyclone.