Abstract
Climate change could pose a significant threat to the energy sector in various countries. The objective of this study is to analyze the long-term impact of changes in precipitation and water availability on hydroelectric production. To do so, the study focuses on three hydroelectric power plants in Southern Spain combining climatological, technical and economic data and projections. A physical model has been designed that reproduces the plants’ operations and incorporates various scenarios for the evolution of contributions to the basin. The results predict a 10 to 49% drop in production by the end of the century, depending on the plant and scenario. This decrease in production, in accordance with our economic and operational hypotheses, would significantly affect the operating margins of the facilities and, in certain scenarios, could reach an economically unsustainable level by the end of the century. An investment analysis has been carried out as well, showing that climate change may jeopardize future investments in similar facilities.
Highlights
The energy sector is responsible for two-thirds of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions globally [1] and, is a very relevant contributor to climate change
The objective of this study is to combine physical, technical and economic information to analyze to what extent a decrease in average rainfall and changes in temperature, as a consequence of climate change, could affect the long-term profit margins and operations of a hydroelectric plant
The results of these projections show a significant decline in production, which is consistent with The the results decrease in contributions projected by CEDEX
Summary
The energy sector is responsible for two-thirds of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions globally [1] and, is a very relevant contributor to climate change. Electricity generation may be impacted by, among other factors, rising global temperatures, changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, changes in air temperature, and most notably, changes in rainfall patterns. These impacts will have repercussions throughout the sector’s value chain, including the provision of raw materials, energy generation itself, and supply and distribution, and will occur in one form or another in most energy generation technologies [3,4,5]. There is less available literature that presents a detailed analysis of specific projects or plants, or that analyzes the economic implications of climate change or how it can influence new investments in the sector [10]
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