Abstract
The impact of regional climate change on the runoff and the regime of glacier- and snow-fed rivers in the transboundary river Shu basin between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan is investigated. This study covered three of the most representative rivers of the Shu basin. It was based on the weather and gauging stations’ observation data in the river Shu basin — the northern Tien Shan. Based on the trend analysis, an increase in the average annual temperature and river discharge was identified within the observation period as a whole, and for the separate compared periods. Furthermore, the mean annual flow projections were made based on the methodology of the retrospective analysis of runoff and the rate of river flow increase for the observation period, and further extrapolation of data for the forecast period. According to the analysis, the mean annual flow for the considered rivers will be decreased by 25 to 30% on average by 2050. These findings are necessary for elaborating adaptation measures in water allocation for freshwater supply, irrigation and hydropower within this transboundary river.
Highlights
Due to the processes of global climate change that have been taking place throughout the 20th and into the 21st century, the concept of long-term flow fluctuations underlying the methodology for the calculation of the main hydrological characteristics necessary for the design and construction of various structures and the management of water resources, including the water allocation of transboundary rivers, requires a review based on comprehensive analysis and adjustment
The meteorological and hydrological data were derived from different sources: the Agency for Hydrometeorology, the State Water Resources Agency under the Government of Kyrgyzstan, as well as from various studies and reports describing the use and projection of the water resources in the river Shu basin [33,40]
The results provided by [6] highlight the potential of the Least-Squares Wavelet software in analysing climate and hydrological time series without any need for interpolation, gapfilling, and de-spiking
Summary
Due to the processes of global climate change that have been taking place throughout the 20th and into the 21st century, the concept of long-term flow fluctuations underlying the methodology for the calculation of the main hydrological characteristics necessary for the design and construction of various structures and the management of water resources, including the water allocation of transboundary rivers, requires a review based on comprehensive analysis and adjustment. Climate change has always drawn the attention of scientists, but in the 1970s it became a global issue It was from this decade onward that the signs of climate change began to manifest themselves more clearly. These changes were exhibited in the form of extreme weather events such as frequent droughts, catastrophic floods, and an increase in the inter-annual and inter-seasonal fluctuations of amplitudes of the air temperature, with a general tendency to increase both seasonal and annual average monthly temperatures. Detecting variability and trends in river streamflow time series are vital for the appropriate management and planning of water resources. It diminishes the risks and detrimental effects associated with wrongfully assuming stationarity in hydrologic design. The Mann-Kendall test and its modification for streamflow trend analysis in a South
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
