The impact of climate change on grapevines in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract

Climate change is having a strong impact in the Western Balkans; it is decreasing water reserves and increasing the intensity and frequency of droughts and floods. Such changes have a predominantly negative impact on agricultural production. However, positive effects on grape growth are also expected. Here, the expected changes in the vineyard index in Bosnia and Herzegovina were analyzed using a multicriteria climate classification system. Three climate indices—the heliothermal index, the drought index, and the cool night index—were calculated based on datasets of mean daily temperature, maximum and minimum daily temperature, and daily rainfall accumulation for three locations in Bosnia and Herzegovina. These three locations represented different climatic zones. The trends in these climate indices are expected to significantly influence the viticulture sector. The most significant changes in these indices are predicted to occur in the second half of the twenty-first century. Rising temperatures are expected to extend the growing season, and increasing heat accumulation is expected to influence the grape yield and ripening potential in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The changing climatic conditions are likely to result in the introduction of new vine varieties to Bosnia and Herzegovina that are typical of regions with a drier and warmer climate. This study highlights that grape and wine production is on the rise in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and that climate change will provide the opportunity to develop this sector.