Abstract
We examine the potential for climate change to impact fertility via adaptations in human behavior. We start by discussing a wide range of economic channels through which climate change might impact fertility, including sectoral reallocation, the gender wage gap, longevity, and child mortality. Then, we build a quantitative model that combines standard economic-demographic theory with existing estimates of the economic consequences of climate change. In the model, increases in global temperature affect agricultural and non-agricultural sectors differently. Near the equator, where many poor countries are located, climate change has a larger negative effect on agriculture. The resulting scarcity in agricultural goods acts as a force towards higher agricultural prices and wages, leading to a labor reallocation into this sector. Since agriculture makes less use of skilled labor, climate damage decreases the return to acquiring skills, inducing parents to invest less resources in the education of each child and to increase fertility. These patterns are reversed at higher latitudes, suggesting that climate change may exacerbate inequities by reducing fertility and increasing education in richer northern countries, while increasing fertility and reducing education in poorer tropical countries. While the model only examines the role of one mechanism, it suggests that climate change could have an impact on fertility, indicating the need for future work on this important topic.
Highlights
Climate change will have a substantial impact on the economy [1, 2]
Our model examines the relationship between structural transformation and the quantityquality trade-off, which has played a substantial role in past demographic transitions [3, 15] and is likely to be an important channel for future climate impacts
To isolate the impact of climate change on demographic outcomes, we focus primarily on a hypothetical economy modelled after Colombia, for which global temperatures and technology can be treated as exogenous factors
Summary
Climate change will have a substantial impact on the economy [1, 2]. There is a broad consensus that economic factors affect fertility [3, 4, 5]. There is substantial evidence that climate change affects agricultural and non-agricultural sectors differently [16, 1, 17], thereby altering the transition process. Economic theory suggests that future changes in climate may substantially influence fertility patterns via the process of structural transformation, among other possible avenues. We build a model that combines standard economic theory regarding structural transformation and endogenous fertility with existing estimates of the sectoral impacts of climate change. Our model examines the relationship between structural transformation and the quantityquality trade-off, which has played a substantial role in past demographic transitions [3, 15] and is likely to be an important channel for future climate impacts. We find evidence for substantial inequities: at high latitudes, the demographic effects of climate change are reversed, leading to lower fertility and greater education attainment. We find essentially no difference, which suggests that location, rather than income, will be the primary source of heterogeneity of climate impacts on fertility
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