The impact of blockchain on Brazilian public procurement processes from the perspective of transaction costs: scenarios as perceived by experts

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to explore the impacts of a blockchain network implementation to support purchasing processes of a Brazilian public organization. Design/methodology/approach The Grumbach method was used to build the scenarios. Five experts with knowledge in blockchain and experience in public procurement were consulted on 20 possible preliminary events, defining their probability of occurrence and relevance. The data obtained were processed in Puma software, which returned a selection of ten definitive events, based on probability, relevance and standard deviation indicators, generating a map of prospective scenarios. Findings Three following scenarios are shown, the ideal scenario, the one with greater implantation benefits and fewer complications; the trend scenario, more likely to occur under current conditions; and the most likely scenario of occurrence, according to experts. The results indicated which simulated events are drivers (motives), and which are influenced (dependent). They were categorized as opportunities or threats to the deployment of the technology. Research limitations/implications Although public procurement processes are standardized by Brazilian legislation, new events may arise from the replication of the model in different organizations. The research revealed the need for practical testing in a simulated public procurement environment. Originality/value The article explores the interaction between disruptive network technology and processes linked to public sector efficiency. Studies on electronic government point to the future of public management.