The Impact of Ω m 0 Prior Bias on Cosmological Parameter Estimation: Reconciling DESI DR2 BAO and Pantheon+ SNe Data

We analyse some open debates in cosmology in light of the most updated quasar (QSO) sample, covering a wide redshift range up to $\mathit{ z}$ ∼ 7.5, combined with type Ia supernovae (SNe) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs). Indeed, extending the cosmological analyses with high-redshift data is key to distinguishing between different cosmological models that are degenerate at low redshifts, and allowing better constraints on a possible dark energy (DE) evolution. Also, we discuss combinations of BAO, SNe, and QSO data to understand their compatibility and implications for extensions of the standard cosmological model. Specifically, we consider a flat and non-flat ΛCDM cosmology, a flat and non-flat DE model with a constant DE equation of state parameter (w), and four flat DE models with variable w, namely the Chevallier–Polarski–Linder and Jassal–Bagla–Padmanabhan models, and an ‘exponential’, and Barboza–Alcaniz parametrizations. We find that a joint analysis of QSO+SNe with BAO is only possible in the context of a flat Universe. Indeed BAO confirms the flatness condition assuming a curved geometry, whilst SNe + QSO show evidence of a closed space. We also find ΩM,0 = 0.3 in all data sets assuming a flat ΛCDM model. Yet, all the other models show a statistically significant deviation at 2-3 σ with the combined SNe + SO + BAO data set. In the models where DE density evolves with time, SNe + QSO + BAO data always prefer ΩM,0 > 0.3, w0 < −1 and wa > 0. This DE phantom behaviour is mainly driven by SNe + QSO, while BAO are closer to the flat ΛCDM model.

We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, combining information from the temperature and polarization maps and the lensing reconstruction. Compared to the 2015 results, improved measurements of large-scale polarization allow the reionization optical depth to be measured with higher precision, leading to significant gains in the precision of other correlated parameters. Improved modelling of the small-scale polarization leads to more robust constraints on many parameters, with residual modelling uncertainties estimated to affect them only at the 0.5 σ level. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter ΛCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted “base ΛCDM” in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Ω c h 2 = 0.120 ± 0.001, baryon density Ω b h 2 = 0.0224 ± 0.0001, scalar spectral index n s = 0.965 ± 0.004, and optical depth τ = 0.054 ± 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03% precision, with 100 θ * = 1.0411 ± 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-ΛCDM cosmology, the inferred (model-dependent) late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H 0 = (67.4 ± 0.5) km s −1 Mpc −1 ; matter density parameter Ω m = 0.315 ± 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude σ 8 = 0.811 ± 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-ΛCDM model. Combining with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements (and considering single-parameter extensions) we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N eff = 2.99 ± 0.17, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction N eff = 3.046, and find that the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to ∑ m ν < 0.12 eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base ΛCDM at over 2 σ , which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the ΛCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. The joint constraint with BAO measurements on spatial curvature is consistent with a flat universe, Ω K = 0.001 ± 0.002. Also combining with Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the dark-energy equation of state parameter is measured to be w 0 = −1.03 ± 0.03, consistent with a cosmological constant. We find no evidence for deviations from a purely power-law primordial spectrum, and combining with data from BAO, BICEP2, and Keck Array data, we place a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r 0.002 < 0.06. Standard big-bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the base-ΛCDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. The Planck base-ΛCDM results are in good agreement with BAO, SNe, and some galaxy lensing observations, but in slight tension with the Dark Energy Survey’s combined-probe results including galaxy clustering (which prefers lower fluctuation amplitudes or matter density parameters), and in significant, 3.6 σ , tension with local measurements of the Hubble constant (which prefer a higher value). Simple model extensions that can partially resolve these tensions are not favoured by the Planck data.

We critically review the evidence for time-varying dark energy from recent Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Supernova (SN) observations. First, we show that such evidence is present at the 3σ level, even without the new BAO data from the dark energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), by instead using BAO data from the dark energy Survey (DES), combined with the DES5Y supernovae and Planck CMB data. Next, we examine the role of the DES5Y supernova dataset, showing that the preference for time-varying dark energy is driven by the low redshift supernovae common to both the DES5Y and Pantheon+ compilations. We find that combining Pantheon+ and DES5Y supernovae by removing the common supernovae leads to two different results, depending on whether they are removed from the DES5Y or the Pantheon+ catalog, leading to stronger or weaker exclusion of ΛCDM, at the (3.8σ) and (2.5σ) level, respectively. These common supernovae have smaller error bars in DES5Y compared to Pantheon+, and, as recently pointed out, there is an offset in magnitude in DES5Y between supernovae at (z > 0.1), where almost all the measurements taken during the full five years of DES are, and the low-redshift ones (z < 0.1), where all the historical set of nearby supernovae lies. We show that marginalizing over such an offset in DES5Y would lead to significantly weaker evidence for evolving dark energy.

We derive constraints on cosmological parameters and tests of dark energy models from the combination of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements with cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Type Ia supernova (SN) data. We take advantage of high-precision BAO measurements from galaxy clustering and the Ly-alpha forest (LyaF) in the BOSS survey of SDSS-III. BAO data alone yield a high confidence detection of dark energy, and in combination with the CMB angular acoustic scale they further imply a nearly flat universe. Combining BAO and SN data into an "inverse distance ladder" yields a 1.7% measurement of $H_0=67.3 \pm1.1$ km/s/Mpc. This measurement assumes standard pre-recombination physics but is insensitive to assumptions about dark energy or space curvature, so agreement with CMB-based estimates that assume a flat LCDM cosmology is an important corroboration of this minimal cosmological model. For open LCDM, our BAO+SN+CMB combination yields $\Omega_m=0.301 \pm 0.008$ and curvature $\Omega_k=-0.003 \pm 0.003$. When we allow more general forms of evolving dark energy, the BAO+SN+CMB parameter constraints remain consistent with flat LCDM. While the overall $\chi^2$ of model fits is satisfactory, the LyaF BAO measurements are in moderate (2-2.5 sigma) tension with model predictions. Models with early dark energy that tracks the dominant energy component at high redshifts remain consistent with our constraints. Expansion history alone yields an upper limit of 0.56 eV on the summed mass of neutrino species, improving to 0.26 eV if we include Planck CMB lensing. Standard dark energy models constrained by our data predict a level of matter clustering that is high compared to most, but not all, observational estimates. (Abridged)

In this work, we explore the cosmological implications of different baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data, including the BAO data extracted by using the spherically averaged one-dimensional galaxy clustering (GC) statistics (hereafter BAO1) and the BAO data obtained by using the anisotropic two-dimensional GC statistics (hereafter BAO2). To make a comparison, we also take into account the case without BAO data (hereafter NO BAO). Firstly, making use of these BAO data, as well as the SNLS3 type Ia supernovae sample and the Planck distance priors data, we give the cosmological constraints of the $\Lambda$CDM, the $w$CDM, and the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) model. Then, we discuss the impacts of different BAO data on cosmological consquences, including its effects on parameter space, equation of state (EoS), figure of merit (FoM), deceleration-acceleration transition redshift, Hubble parameter $H(z)$, deceleration parameter $q(z)$, statefinder hierarchy $S^{(1)}_3(z)$, $S^{(1)}_4(z)$ and cosmic age $t(z)$. We find that: (1) NO BAO data always give a smallest fractional matter density $\Omega_{m0}$, a largest fractional curvature density $\Omega_{k0}$ and a largest Hubble constant $h$; in contrast, BAO1 data always give a largest $\Omega_{m0}$, a smallest $\Omega_{k0}$ and a smallest $h$. (2) For the $w$CDM and the CPL model, NO BAO data always give a largest EoS $w$; in contrast, BAO2 data always give a smallest $w$. (3) Compared with the case of BAO1, BAO2 data always give a slightly larger FoM, and thus can give a cosmological constraint with a slightly better accuracy. (4) The impacts of different BAO data on the cosmic evolution and the comic age are very small, and can not be distinguished by using various dark energy diagnosis and the cosmic age data.

We employ the Planck 2013 CMB temperature anisotropy and lensing data, and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data to constrain a phenomenological wCDM model, where dark matter and dark energy interact. We assume time-dependent equation of state parameter for dark energy, and treat dark matter and dark energy as fluids whose energy-exchange rate is proportional to the dark-matter density. The CMB data alone leave a strong degeneracy between the interaction rate and the physical CDM density parameter today, ωc, allowing a large interaction rate |Γ| ∼ H0. However, as has been known for a while, the BAO data break this degeneracy. Moreover, we exploit the CMB lensing potential likelihood, which probes the matter perturbations at redshift z ∼ 2 and is very sensitive to the growth of structure, and hence one of the tools for discerning between the ΛCDM model and its alternatives. However, we find that in the non-phantom models (wde>−1), the constraints remain unchanged by the inclusion of the lensing data and consistent with zero interaction, −0.14 < Γ/H0 < 0.02 at 95% CL. On the contrary, in the phantom models (wde<−1), energy transfer from dark energy to dark matter is moderately favoured over the non-interacting model; 0−0.57 < Γ/H0 < −0.1 at 95% CL with CMB+BAO, while addition of the lensing data shifts this to −0.46 < Γ/H0 < −0.01.

Ordinary 3D Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) data are model-dependent, requiring the assumption of a cosmological model to calculate comoving distances during data reduction. Throughout the present-day literature, the assumed model is ΛCDM. However, it has been pointed out in several recent works that this assumption can be inadequate when analyzing alternative cosmologies, potentially biasing the Hubble constant (H0) low, thus contributing to the Hubble tension. To address this issue, 3D BAO data can be replaced with 2D BAO data, which are only weakly model-dependent. The impact of using 2D BAO data, in combination with alternative cosmological models beyond ΛCDM, has been explored for several phenomenological models, showing a promising reduction in the Hubble tension. In this work, we accommodate these models in the theoretically robust framework of bimetric gravity. This is a modified theory of gravity that exhibits a transition from a (possibly) negative cosmological constant in the early universe to a positive one in the late universe. By combining 2D BAO data with cosmic microwave background and type Ia supernovae data, we find that the inverse distance ladder in this theory yields a Hubble constant of H0=(71.0±0.9)km/s/Mpc, consistent with the SH0ES local distance ladder measurement of H0=(73.0±1.0)km/s/Mpc. Replacing 2D BAO with 3D BAO results in H0=(68.6±0.5)km/s/Mpc from the inverse distance ladder. We conclude that the choice of BAO data significantly impacts the Hubble tension, with ordinary 3D BAO data exacerbating the tension, while 2D BAO data provide results consistent with the local distance ladder.

The Sandage-Loeb (SL) test directly measures the expansion rate of the universe in the redshift range of 2 ≲ z ≲ 5 by detecting redshift drift in the spectra of Lyman-α forest of distant quasars. We discuss the impact of the future SL test data on parameter estimation for the ΛCDM, the wCDM, and the w0waCDM models. To avoid the potential inconsistency with other observational data, we take the best-fitting dark energy model constrained by the current observations as the fiducial model to produce 30 mock SL test data. The SL test data provide an important supplement to the other dark energy probes, since they are extremely helpful in breaking the existing parameter degeneracies. We show that the strong degeneracy between Ωm and H0 in all the three dark energy models is well broken by the SL test. Compared to the current combined data of type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillation, cosmic microwave background, and Hubble constant, the 30-yr observation of SL test could improve the constraints on Ωm and H0 by more than 60% for all the three models. But the SL test can only moderately improve the constraint on the equation of state of dark energy. We show that a 30-yr observation of SL test could help improve the constraint on constant w by about 25%, and improve the constraints on w0 and wa by about 20% and 15%, respectively. We also quantify the constraining power of the SL test in the future high-precision joint geometric constraints on dark energy. The mock future supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation data are simulated based on the space-based project JDEM. We find that the 30-yr observation of SL test would help improve the measurement precision of Ωm, H0,and wa by more than 70%, 20%, and 60%, respectively, for the w0waCDM model.

New insights from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) 2024 baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) data, in conjunction with cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Type Ia supernova (SN) data, suggest that dark energy may not be a cosmological constant. In this work, we investigate the cosmological implications of holographic dark energy (HDE) and interacting holographic dark energy (IHDE) models, utilizing CMB, DESI BAO, and SN data. By considering the combined DESI BAO and SN data, we determine that in the IHDE model, the parameter c>1 1$$\\end{document}]]> and the dark-energy equation of state w does not cross -1 at the 1σ confidence level, whereas in the HDE model, it marginally falls below this threshold. Upon incorporating CMB data, we observe that in the HDE model, the parameter c<1 and w crosses -1 at a level beyond 10σ. Conversely, for the IHDE model, the likelihood of w crossing -1 is considerably diminished, implying that the introduction of interaction within the HDE model could potentially resolve or mitigate the cosmic big rip conundrum. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the HDE and IHDE models are statistically as viable as the ΛCDM model when assessing Bayesian evidence with DESI BAO data combined with SN data. However, when CMB data are added, the HDE and IHDE models are significantly less favored than the ΛCDM model. Our findings advocate for further exploration of the HDE and IHDE models using forthcoming, more precise late-universe observations.

We combine new Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data from Planck with Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data to constrain the Brans-Dicke (BD) theory, in which the gravitational constant G evolves with time. Observations of type Ia supernovae (SNeIa) provide another important set of cosmological data, as they may be regarded as standard candles after some empirical corrections. However, in theories that include modified gravity like the BD theory, there is some risk and complication when using the SNIa data because their luminosity may depend on G. In this paper, we assume a power law relation between the SNIa luminosity and G, but treat the power index as a free parameter. We then test whether the difference in distances measured with SNIa data and BAO data can be reduced in such a model. We also constrain the BD theory and cosmological parameters by making a global fit with the CMB, BAO and SNIa data set. For the CMB+BAO+SNIa data set, we find 0.08 × 10−2 < ζ < 0.33 × 10−2 at the 68% confidence level (CL) and −0.01 × 10−2 < ζ < 0.43 × 10−2 at the 95% CL, where ζ is related to the BD parameter ω by ζ = ln(1 + 1/ω).

Context. Cosmological parameters and dark energy (DE) behavior are generally constrained assuming a priori models. Aims. We work out a model-independent reconstruction to bind the key cosmological quantities and the DE evolution. Methods. Through the model-independent Bézier interpolation method, we reconstructed the Hubble rate from the observational Hubble data and derived analytic expressions for the distances of galaxy clusters, type Ia supernovae, and uncorrelated baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) data. In view of the discrepancy between Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) BAO data, they were kept separate in two distinct analyses. Correlated BAO data were employed to break the baryonic–dark matter degeneracy. All these interpolations enable us to single out and reconstruct the DE behavior with the redshift z in a totally model-independent way. Results. In both analyses, with SDSS-BAO or DESI-BAO datasets, the constraints agree at a 1–σ confidence level (CL) with the flat ΛCDM model. The Hubble constant tension appears solved in favor of the Planck satellite value. The reconstructed DE behavior exhibits deviations at small z (&gt; 1–σ CL), but agrees (&lt; 1–σ CL) with the cosmological constant paradigm at larger z. Conclusions. Our method hints at a slowly evolving DE, consistent with a cosmological constant at early times.

We introduce a new diagnostic for the null tests of dynamical dark energy alongside two other combined equivalent diagnostics. These diagnostics are useful, especially when we include anisotropic baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data in an analysis, to quantify the deviations from the standard ΛCDM model. We also consider another diagnostic for isotropic BAO observations. These null tests are independent of any late-time dark energy model or parametrization. With these diagnostics, we study the evidence for dynamical dark energy in light of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) 2024 data combined with cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations of the Planck 2018 mission and local H 0 measurements. We find no strong evidence for dynamical dark energy. The exclusion of the individual deviations at the effective redshift 0.51 of the DESI 2024 data makes the evidence even weaker. We get nearly similar results for other non-DESI BAO data. Both for DESI 2024 and other non-DESI BAO data, the evidence is almost independent of early-time physics. The evidence corresponding to the SHOES value of H 0 is higher than the corresponding tRGB value of H 0 for all combinations of data, but still not strong enough to reject the flat ΛCDM model.

Using the fact that the comoving angular diameter distance to the last scattering surface is strictly constrained almost model independently, we show that, for any model agreeing with the standard $\mathrm{\ensuremath{\Lambda}}$CDM model on its background dynamics at $z\ensuremath{\sim}0$ and size of the comoving sound horizon at last scattering, the deviations of the Hubble radius from the one of the standard $\mathrm{\ensuremath{\Lambda}}$CDM model must be a member of the set of admissible wavelets. The family of models characterized by this framework also offers nontrivial oscillatory behaviors in various functions that define the kinematics of the Universe, even when the wavelets themselves are very simple. We also discuss the consequences of attributing these kinematics to, first, dark energy, and second, varying gravitational coupling strength. Utilizing some simplest wavelets, we demonstrate the competence of this framework in describing the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data without any modifications to the agreement with cosmic microwave background measurements. This framework also provides a natural explanation for the bumps found in nonparametric observational reconstructions of the Hubble parameter and dark energy density as compensations of the dips suggested by some BAO data, and questions the physical reality of their existence. We note that utilizing this framework on top of the models that agree with both the cosmic microwave background and local ${H}_{0}$ measurements but are held back by BAO data, one may resurrect these models through the wiggly nature of wavelets that can naturally accommodate the BAO data. Finally, we also suggest narrowing the plausible set of admissible wavelets to further improve our framework by imposing conditions from expected kinematics of a viable cosmological model or first principle fundamental physics such as energy conditions.

An investigation of dark energy (DE) using the Constitution SnIa sample (which includes recent CfA data at low redshifts) reveals a slight inconsistency (more than 1σ) with the standard spatially flat ΛCDM model, if the assumption of a constant equation of state (w) for DE is dropped. This effect, which is most clearly seen using the recently introduced Om diagnostic, corresponds to an increase of Om(z) and w(z) at redshifts z<0.3. In geometrical terms, this suggests that cosmic acceleration may have already peaked and that we are currently witnessing its slowing down. Interestingly, such DE behaviour also provides a better fit to baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data. Including the cosmic microwave background (CMB) ‘shift parameter’ as another independent observable, we show that the well known CPL parametrization strains to fit the data simultaneously at low and high redshifts. This could either be because of the presence of systematics, or because the CPL ansatz is not versatile enough to catch the rapid variation in DE suggested by the data. The effect we observe could correspond to DE decaying into dark matter (or something else). A toy model which mimics this process agrees well with the combined SnIa+BAO+CMB data.

In this article we compare a variety of well-known dynamical dark energy models using the cosmic microwave background measurements from the 2018 Planck legacy and 2015 Planck data releases, the baryon acoustic oscillations measurements and the local measurements of H0 obtained by the SH0ES (Supernovae, H0, for the Equation of State of Dark energy) collaboration analysing the Hubble Space Telescope data. We discuss the alleviation of H0 tension, that is obtained at the price of a phantom-like dark energy equation of state. We perform a Bayesian evidence analysis to quantify the improvement of the fit, finding that all the dark energy models considered in this work are preferred against the ΛCDM scenario. Finally, among all the possibilities analysed, the CPL model is the best one in fitting the data and solving the H0 tension at the same time. However, unfortunately, this dynamical dark energy solution is not supported by the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) data, and the tension is restored when BAO data are included for all the models.