The impact and durative effect of the measures of securing quality air for the Beijing Olympic and Paralympics Games 2008 on air pollution index in Beijing

Abstract

To analyze the impact of the measures for securing quality air for the 2008 Beijing Olympic and Paralympics Games on air pollution index (API) in Beijing and forecast the aftereffects. The time-distribution of API in Beijing from 2004 to 2008 was described. The time sequence analysis was used and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was chosen to establish an API forecasting model to predict the API in December, 2008. From 2004 to 2008, the average API in March (120 +/- 66) was the highest followed by November (116 +/- 72) and the average API in July (83 +/- 28) was the lowest followed by August (77 +/- 27). The proportion of "excellent" and "good" days from 2004 to 2008 were 9.56% (35/366), 54.37% (199/366), 8.49% (31/365), 54.52% (199/365), 7.12% (26/365 ), 58.90% (215/365 ), 8.77% (32/365), 58.63% (214/365), 16.67% (61/366), 58.20% (213/366) respectively, with an increasing trend year by year (chi2(trend) = 11.397, P = 0.001). The model of ARIMA (1, 0, 0) fitted well; according to the prediction of the ARIMA (1, 0, 0) model, the decrease of API that attributed to interim measures during the Olympic Games was 37. 1% and the average API of December was 82. The interim measures during the Olympic Games were effective on promoting air quality. After the Olympic Games, air quality would still remain good.