The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model (H[2]Sim) technical description.

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">This study introduces the Total Cost of Ownership per Unit Operating Time (TCOP) as a novel indicator to assess the economic impact of vehicle durability. A comprehensive analysis is conducted for fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in light- and heavy-duty scenarios. The results show that in HDVs, the advantages of low prices for hydrogen and electricity are fully demonstrated due to their high durability. In contrast, for LDVs, the purchase cost plays a much larger role, accounting for 68% of the total cost, indicating a significant difference between vehicles. Improving durability can significantly enhance the competitiveness of FCVs. For FCVs, increasing the durability from the current levels of 150,000 km for LDVs and 600,000 km for HDVs to 20,8500 km and 1,122,000 km, respectively, would align their TCOP with that of current ICEVs. A sensitivity analysis shows that for HDVs. The focus should be placed on improving the durability of fuel cell systems in order to reduce fuel costs over the long term, while for LDVs, the key to reducing TCOP is to reduce the manufacturing cost of the whole vehicle. By 2040, assuming that the durability of FCVs is improved to the same level as ICEVs and that the cost of fuel cells continues to fall, FCVs will be more competitive than EVs and ICEVs in terms of long-term operating costs.</div></div>

In view of serious environmental problems occurring around the world and in particular climate change caused significantly by dangerous CO2 emissions into the biosphere in the developmental process, it has become imperative to identify alternative and cleaner sources of energy. Compressed hydrogen is being considered as a potential fuel for heavy-duty applications because it will substantially reduce toxic greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutant emissions. The cost of hydrogen will be the main element in the acceptance of compressed hydrogen internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in the marketplace because of its effect on the levelized cost of driving. This paper investigates the feasibility of developing a nationwide network of hydrogen refueling infrastructure with the aim to assist in a conversion of long-haul, heavy-duty (LHHD) truck fleet from diesel fuel to hydrogen. This initiative is taken in order to reduce vehicle emissions and support commitments to the climate plans reinforcing active transportation infrastructure together with new transit infrastructure and zero-emission vehicles. Two methods based on constant and variable traffics, using data about hydrogen infrastructure and ICE vehicles, were created to estimate fueling conditions for LHHD truck fleet. Furthermore, a thorough economic study was carried out on several test cases to evaluate how diverse variables affect the final selling price of hydrogen. This gave an understanding of what elements go into the pricing of hydrogen and if it can compete with diesel in the trucking market. Results revealed that the cost to purchase green hydrogen is the utmost part in the pump price of hydrogen. Due to the variety in hydrogen production, there is no defined cost, which renders estimates difficult. Moreover, it was found that the pump price of green hydrogen is on average 239% more expensive than diesel fuel. The methodology proposed and models created in this feasibility study may serve as a valuable tool for future techno-economics of hydrogen refueling stations for other types of ICE fleets or fuel cell vehicles.

<div class="htmlview paragraph">In 1981, one of us authored an SAE Paper - Hydrogen as an Alternative Automotive Fuel [<span class="xref">1</span>] and concluded that although the hydrogen fuel/vehicle system was technically feasible, it was not competitive with other alternative fuel/vehicle systems and predicted that hydrogen would not be used as an automotive fuel in this century. The current paper revisits the subject 12 years later. In 1981, energy concerns were dominant, and coal-based synthetic fuels were viewed as viable alternatives to petroleum and natural gas, which were predicted to become scarce and very expensive. Today, environmental issues are crucial and global warming concerns will probably limit the future use of coal, and petroleum and natural gas are cheaper than they were in 1981. The paper examines advances in hydrogen production, distribution, on-board storage and use as an automotive fuel in internal combustion engines (ICE) and fuel cell electric vehicles. It also considers tailpipe and overall CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Hydrogen ICE vehicles are less attractive than competing battery electric vehicles and natural gas ICE vehicles. Fuel cell vehicles are theoretically more attractive, but face technical challenges which will bar them as a prospect for automotive applications before 2010 at the earliest. Setting up a large-scale hydrogen fuel infrastructure will be extremely expensive and will take decades. Therefore, it is concluded that hydrogen will not be used as an automotive fuel before the year 2020.</div>

Life cycle analysis of vehicles powered by a fuel cell and by internal combustion engine for Canada

<div class="htmlview paragraph">The purpose of this system study was to compare the performance and fuel consumption of a pure fuel cell vehicle (<i>i.e.</i> with no battery included) with an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle of similar weight in different drive cycles. Both light and heavy duty vehicles are studied.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">For light duty vehicles, the New European drive cycle, NEDC [70/220/EEC], the FTP75 [EPA] and a Swedish driving pattern from the city of Lund [<span class="xref">Ericsson, 2000</span>] are utilised. The fuel consumption for these drive cycles was compared with ICE vehicles of similar weight, an Ibiza Stella 1.4 (year 2000) from Seat and a Volvo 960 2.5 E sedan (year 1995). For heavy duty vehicles, urban buses in this study, two drive cycles were employed, the synthetic CBD14 and the real bus route 85 from Gothenburg, Sweden.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">It can be concluded that marked improvements in fuel economy can be achieved for hydrogen-fuelled light and heavy duty vehicles. The fuel consumption of a small fuel cell vehicle was 50% less than the corresponding ICE vehicle in both the NEDC and the FTP75. With proper dimensioning of the system components, e.g. the engine, further reductions in fuel consumption can be achieved. The range of more than 500 km with 5 kg of hydrogen in a 345 bar fuel tank was comparable to an ICE vehicle. If the pressure is raised to 690 bar, a driving range of 600 km could be achieved. As the auxiliary system counteracts the increase in fuel cell efficiency, raising the minimum operating voltage from 0.6 to 0.75 V in a 50 kW fuel cell system, provides only a 5% reduction in fuel consumption. A fuel cell bus operated in the CBD14 and the bus route 85, compared with diesel-fuelled urban bus of similar weight, demonstrates a reduction in fuel consumption of 33 and 37 % respectively.</div>

The option of decarbonizing urban freight transport using battery electric vehicle (BEV) seems promising. However, there is currently a strong debate whether fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) might be the better solution. The question arises as to how a fleet of FCEV influences the operating cost, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and primary energy demand in comparison to BEVs and to Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV). To investigate this, we simulate the urban food retailing as a representative share of urban freight transport using a multi-agent transport simulation software. Synthetic routes as well as fleet size and composition are determined by solving a vehicle routing problem. We compute the operating costs using a total cost of ownership analysis and the use phase emissions as well as primary energy demand using the well to wheel approach. While a change to BEV results in 17–23% higher costs compared to ICEV, using FCEVs leads to 22–57% higher costs. Assuming today’s electricity mix, we show a GHG emission reduction of 25% compared to the ICEV base case when using BEV. Current hydrogen production leads to a GHG reduction of 33% when using FCEV which however cannot be scaled to larger fleets. Using current electricity in electrolysis will increase GHG emission by 60% compared to the base case. Assuming 100% renewable electricity for charging and hydrogen production, the reduction from FCEVs rises to 73% and from BEV to 92%. The primary energy requirement for BEV is in all cases lower and for higher compared to the base case. We conclude that while FCEV have a slightly higher GHG savings potential with current hydrogen, BEV are the favored technology for urban freight transport from an economic and ecological point of view, considering the increasing shares of renewable energies in the grid mix.

Securing Platinum-Group Metals for Transport Low-Carbon Transition

Ogden replies: Dan Cohn and John Heywood raise the issue of allocation of R&D resources among short-term and long-term concepts. Analysis by our group at Princeton University and other researchers suggests that, even under optimistic assumptions about, it would be several decades before hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle technologies could make a globally significant impact on reducing emissions. We agree that it is very important in the near term to encourage use of more efficient, less polluting internal combustion engine technologies using conventional fuels.Still, hydrogen holds the greatest long-term promise for dealing simultaneously with air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and energy supply diversity. With hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, emissions could be reduced significantly compared to those from advanced internal combustion engine vehicles. It is highly uncertain today what economic values should be assigned to external costs of energy (such as climate change, health effects from air pollution, oil supply insecurity). However, the trend of the past few decades has been toward ever-increasing regulation of emissions, and integrated assessment models of global climate change suggest that deep reductions in carbon emissions from energy use will be required to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide at acceptable levels. Depending on how we ultimately value the external costs of energy, hydrogen might become the long-term fuel of choice.Should long-term concepts like hydrogen and fuel-cell vehicles have high priority, given that relatively modest improvements in more traditional internal combustion engine technologies could help address environmental and energy supply problems much sooner? In my view, hydrogen and fuel-cell technologies, although high-risk and long-term, have a potentially very high payoff. Therefore, they deserve significant government support now, as “insurance,” so that they will be ready in a few decades, if and when we need to deploy them widely.Rather than curtailing research on long-term technologies, I encourage a comprehensive strategy: Develop clean, efficient internal combustion engine vehicles in the near term, coupled with a long-term strategy of R&D on hydrogen and fuel cells. Consistent policies to encourage use of cleaner transportation systems with lower carbon emissions and to move away from our almost exclusive dependence on crude-oil–derived transportation fuels would encourage adoption of advanced internal combustion engine vehicles in the near term and, eventually, of hydrogen vehicles. Ramesh Gopalan makes a good point about carbon sequestration. However, removing CO2 from small sources (such as small engines), collecting it, transporting it, and sequestering it are daunting tasks. Building a CO2 disposal infrastructure for small-scale carbon capture and collection could be as difficult and costly as implementing a hydrogen infrastructure. Carbon sequestration is better suited to large energy complexes that produce decarbonized energy carriers (electricity or hydrogen).Vladislav Bevc questions whether large-scale use of hydrogen would be feasible, given that large-scale conversion of primary energy resources would be required. Studies have found that sufficient hydrogen to supply foreseeable demands for fluid fuels could be produced from a variety of primary resources including fossil resources (possibly with carbon sequestration), renewables (wind, biomass, or solar), and perhaps nuclear.To illustrate this point, consider energy use for US automobiles. An efficient, four- to five-passenger hydrogen car is projected to have a fuel economy equivalent to about 60–80 miles per gallon of gasoline. If such a car were driven 11 000 miles per year (the US average), and if one assumes that gasoline has a lower heating value of 122 megajoules per gallon, such a vehicle would use 17–22 gigajoules of energy per year. If all 132 million US passenger cars used hydrogen, the total energy use would be perhaps 2.2–3.0 exajoules per year. If the hydrogen is made from fossil fuels or biomass at 60–80% efficiency (depending on the feedstock), the primary energy use would be 3–5 EJ per year. This contrasts with current primary energy use of about 10 EJ for US automotive transportation. 1 1. For a discussion of primary energy resources for hydrogen production, see J. Ogden, Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 24, 227 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.24.1.227 REFERENCESection:ChooseTop of pageREFERENCE <<1. For a discussion of primary energy resources for hydrogen production, see J. Ogden, Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 24, 227 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.24.1.227 , Google ScholarCrossref© 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Well-to-wheel nitrogen oxide emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles reflect real driving emissions and various fuel production pathways in South Korea

Vehicles powered by fuel cells operate more efficiently, more quietly, and more cleanly than internal combustion engines (ICEs). Furthermore, methanol-fueled fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) can utilize major elements of the existing fueling infrastructure of present-day liquid-fueled ICE vehicles (ICEVs). DOE has maintained an active program to stimulate the development and demonstration o fuel cell technologies in conjunction with rechargeable batteries in road vehicles. The purpose of this study is to identify and assess the availability of data on FCVs, and to develop a vehicle subsystem structure that can be used to compare both FCVs and ICEV, from a number of perspectives--environmental impacts, energy utilization, materials usage, and life cycle costs. This report focuses on methanol-fueled FCVs fueled by gasoline, methanol, and diesel fuel that are likely to be demonstratable by the year 2000. The comparative analysis presented covers four vehicles--two passenger vehicles and two urban transit buses. The passenger vehicles include an ICEV using either gasoline or methanol and an FCV using methanol. The FCV uses a Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell, an on-board methanol reformer, mid-term batteries, and an AC motor. The transit bus ICEV was evaluated for both diesel and methanol fuels. The transit bus FCV runs on methanol and uses a Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell (PAFC) fuel cell, near-term batteries, a DC motor, and an on-board methanol reformer. 75 refs.

&lt;div class="section abstract"&gt;&lt;div class="htmlview paragraph"&gt;Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are gaining increasing interest due to contributions to zero emissions and carbon neutrality. Thermal management of FCEVs is essential for fuel cell lifespan and vehicle driving performance, but there is a lack of specialized thermal balance test standards for FCEVs. Considering differences in heat generating mechanism between FCEVs and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), current thermal balance method for ICEVs should be amended to suit for FCHVs. This study discussed thermal balance performance of ICEV and FCHVs under various regulated test conditions based on thermal balance tests in wind tunnel of two FCEVs and an ICEV. FCEVs reported overheat risk during low-speed climbing test due to continuous large power output from fuel cell (FC). Frequent power source switches between FC and battery were observed under dual constrains of fuel cell temperature and battery state of charge (SOC). Significant temperature exceedance of ICEV occurred during flameout and soaking test due to heat accumulation after flameout. Duration time to reach thermal balance state for FCEVs was longer than ICEV due to deterioration in thermal exchange efficiency resulted from inconspicuous temperature difference between FC and coolant. Several modifications including extended test duration time and integration of test conditions were proposed to develop thermal balance test condition sequence for FCEVs. Graded verification system was recommended to comprehensively judge thermal management performance of FCEVs. Such proposal was expected to support the formulation of FCEVs thermal balance test standard and guide improvements of vehicle thermal management performance.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;

Fuel-speed curves (FSC) are used to account for the aggregate effects of congestion on fuel consumption in transportation scenario analysis. This paper presents plausible FSC for conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and for advanced vehicles such as hybrid electric vehicles, fully electric vehicles (EVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) using a fuel consumption model with transient driving schedules and a set of 145 hypothetical vehicles. The FSC shapes show that advanced power train vehicles are expected to maintain fuel economy (FE) in congestion better than ICE vehicles, and FE can even improve for EV and FCV in freeway congestion. In order to implement these FSC for long-range scenario modeling, a bounded approach is presented which uses a single congestion sensitivity parameter. The results in this paper will assist analysis of the roles that vehicle technology and congestion mitigation can play in reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles.

Greenhouse gas emissions of conventional and alternative vehicles: Predictions based on energy policy analysis in South Korea

A polygon-based environmental appraisal of new vehicle technologies combined with renewable energy sources

Life-Cycle Analysis of Fuels and Vehicle Technologies