The (housing) numbers game

Reviewed by: The Numbers Game: Baseball’s Lifelong Fascination with Statistics Stew Thornley (bio) Alan Schwartz. The Numbers Game: Baseball’s Lifelong Fascination with Statistics. New York: St. Martin’s, 2004. 270 pp. Cloth, $24.95. Alan Schwarz's The Numbers Game is not a statistical book but a book about statistics that reads like a fast-paced novel. In it Schwarz demonstrates how statistics have evolved to reflect the changes in the game as well as at times influencing those changes and promoting baseball's popularity. It is a thoroughly researched and intriguing history that goes beyond the numbers. Much in the way that Bill James has proven to be an excellent historian beyond the numbers, so too is Schwarz in this book. Statistics serve as the backdrop, but readers will learn much more about the changing way the game has been played and evaluated. The book delves into a number of interesting areas, profiling the early work of Henry Chadwick and the pioneers who followed: Ernie Lanigan, F. C. Lane (whose development of a percentage value of a run for different types of hits were, later, remarkably close to the values assigned by Pete Palmer in his Linear Weights method), the Eliases and the roots of the Elias Sports Bureau, Allan Roth, and Hy Turkin and the genesis of the first baseball encyclopedia. This is followed up with the story of the first baseball encyclopedia from Macmillan Publishing Company and the use of the computer in compiling this tome. It points out the work of the editors in starting to straighten out long-held errors in recordkeeping. The latter topic becomes particularly intriguing with a description of the selective changing of statistics by Joseph Reichler in future editions of the encyclopedia along with the ongoing resistance of the baseball establishment to change records that were in error, no matter how compelling the evidence, and of the push for a statute of limitations on recording errors. While noting that some teams have tried to avoid the stigma of being overrun by statheads in making personnel decisions, Schwarz is for the most part respectful of the work done in this area. However, his description of those present at a meeting of the Statistical Analysis Committee at the 2003 sabr convention may cause some consternation. His overall summary of the "motley crew," with many wearing "some sort of baseball-logoed T-shirt, cap, or jacket, many with all three," is essentially a correct description of the convention attendees in general. In addition, the relevance of his comment "There were lots of beards" is unclear, and the statement that "an odd number of men spoke with a lisp" goes beyond irrelevance to downright insensitivity. The Numbers Game is packed with information and conclusions—such as whether clutch hitting exists (apparently not) or if Jack Morris's relatively high [End Page 187] lifetime earned run average was a result of his generally pitching well enough to win independent of the run support he received in a game (also apparently not)—without the square-root, sigma signs, and other mathematical hieroglyphics that scare some away. I found chapter 10, on the role of luck or random error, particularly enjoyable as Schwarz cogently examines the role of random chance in baseball along with the resistance of fans to acknowledge it. The one essential missing from the book is a list of sources. There is a great deal of information, but it would be nice to know where it came from. The Numbers Game, which concludes with a look to the future, is the definitive baseball book of 2004 and a must-read follow-up to last year's best-selling Moneyball, by Michael Lewis. Stew Thornley Stew Thornley is the author of more than thirty-five books, including Land of the Giants: New York’s Polo Grounds and Six Feet Under: A Graveyard Guide to Minnesota. He has combined his love of baseball and cemeteries by visiting every grave of members of the Baseball Hall of Fame. He has been a member of the Society for American Baseball Research since 1979. Copyright © 2005 the University of Nebraska Press

Sources that contribute to variation in mathematical achievement include both numerical knowledge and general underlying cognitive processing abilities. The current study tested the benefits of tablet-based training games that targeted each of these areas for improving the mathematical knowledge of kindergarten-age children. We hypothesized that playing a number-based game targeting numerical magnitude knowledge would improve children's broader numerical skills. We also hypothesized that the benefits of playing a working memory (WM) game would transfer to children's numerical knowledge given its important underlying role in mathematics achievement. Kindergarteners from diverse backgrounds (n=148; 52% girls; Mage =71.87months) were randomly assigned to either play a number-based game, a WM game, or a control game on a tablet for 10 sessions. Structural equation modeling was used to model children's learning gains in mathematics and WM across time. Overall, our results suggest that playing the number game improved kindergarten children's numerical knowledge at the latent level, and these improvements remained stable as assessed 1month later. However, children in the WM group did not improve their numerical knowledge compared to children in the control condition. Playing both the number game and WM game improved children's WM at the latent level. Importantly, the WM group continued to improve their WM for at least a month after playing the games. The results demonstrate that computerized games that target both domain-specific and domain-general skills can benefit a broad range of kindergarten-aged children.

In 1986, the contestants of the $27$th International Mathematical Olympiad were given a game of numbers played on a pentagon. In 1987, Mozes generalized this game to an arbitrary undirected, weighted, connected graph. The convergence properties and total number of moves of any convergent game have been resolved by Mozes using Weyl groups. Eriksson provided an alternate proof using matrix theory and graph theory. In this paper, we briefly discuss the results of Mozes and Eriksson on undirected graphs. Then we generalize this game to arbitrary directed, strongly connected graphs and investigate the convergence properties of the game of numbers.

Drawing on recent Political Discourse Analysis (PDA) approaches that map text over relevant context as supported by Van Dijk (2006), in this research, it was tried to follow this research route. The main intention was to look at political discourse via the lenses of PDA to see whether ideologies and power relations of interlocutors in the target setting of this study could have possibly been aligned with linguistic elements-here rhetorical devices and to see to what extent such text-context mapping is recognized as relevant to language tools within the selected datasets. Accordingly, the researcher tried to follow a sample of political talk- live 2008 US presidential debates- among two Republic vs. Democratic campaigns. To do so, some political strategies for argumentation including Van Dijk’s model representing 'Authority', 'Topos or burden', 'Future Representations’, ‘Comparison', 'Consensus', 'Counterfactuals', 'populism’, 'generalizations', and 'number Games' were mapped over some linguistic rhetorical devices such as ‘metaphor’, ‘hyperbole’, ‘irony’, ‘euphemism’, etc. The common discoursal moves in Obama’s vs. McCain's speech statements were compared and contrasted among similar strategies to find any emergent rhetorical devices. Findings indicated that 1) the political candidates had made use of rhetorical and political moves in tandem within the same propositional units, 2) some employed discourse devices were paralleled with the majority of political strategies like repetition and metaphor, and 3) some political strategies had been used to excess like 'comparison’, 'populism' and 'future representation’ respectively.

This paper asks two questions. First, has the prevalence of expectations management to meet/beat analyst expectations changed in the aftermath of the 2001-2002 accounting scandals and the passage of the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX)? Second, has the mix among the three mechanisms used for meeting earnings targets: accrual earnings management, real earnings management, and earnings expectations management shifted in the Post-SOX Period? We document that the propensity to meet/beat analyst expectations has declined significantly in the Post-SOX Period. Our primary findings explain this pattern. In particular, we find a decline in the use of expectations management and accrual management, and no change in real earnings management in the Post-SOX Period relative to the preceding seven-year period. Our results are robust to controlling for varying macro economic conditions. These findings contribute to the academic literature, investors, and regulators.

Niederman, Derrick, and Boyum, David. What the Numbers Say: A Field Guide to Mastering Our Numerical World. (New York: Broadway Books/Random House, 2003). 288 pp. Hardcover, ISBN 978-0-7679-0998-3. Paperback, 978-0-7679-0999-0. Available as an eBook. Blastland, Michael, and Dilnot, Andrew. The Numbers Game: The Commonsense Guide to Understanding Numbers in the News, in Politics and in Life. (New York: Gotham Books/Penguin, 2009). 192 pp. Hardcover, ISBN 978-1-5924-0423-0. Paperback, ISBN 978-1-5924-0485-8. Available as an eBook. Popular books on quantitative literacy need to be easy to read, reasonably comprehensive in scope, and include examples that are thought-provoking and memorable. In contrast to textbooks, popular books can dispense with exercises and structure, and instead offer an informal voice and an inviting style. In this genre John Allen Paulos’ Innumeracy is widely regarded as a classic. However, Paulos' book is out of date, and it takes a whimsical approach to many topics. The goal of this review is to acquaint the reader with two more recent entries into the genre. What the Numbers Say by Derrick Niederman and David Boyum takes an expansive view of quantitative literacy. The Numbers Game by Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot, on the other hand, focuses on reasoning surrounding statistics and uncertainty in contemporary society. The Numbers Game is a revised American edition of The Tiger That Isn’t, which grew out of a BBC radio program, More or Less.

Despite a major research effort in the last few decades, less is known about the movement of African peoples to the New World than the much smaller movement of their European counterparts before the mid-nineteenth century. Given that the record keepers were Europeans who regarded Africans as outsiders, it is likely that we shall never have as much information on the personal lives of individual Africans making the Atlantic crossing as we do of Europeans. But on the identities of large groups entering the African stream as well as the size and demographic characteristics of these groups, the picture is much less discouraging. Indeed, in a few years it may well be the case that in these areas, and in the early modern period at least, we will actually know more about these aspects of African than of European transatlantic migration. As knowledge of the patterns of the trade is basic to evaluations of the cultural implications of long-distance movements of people, this is an exciting prospect. One of the developments that has made it possible is, of course, the computer revolution and the related, but ultimately more important, explosion in archival research that has occurred since the late 1960s.

(1997). The ‘numbers game’ and routes to slavery. Slavery & Abolition: Vol. 18, Routes to Slavery: Direction, Ethnicity and Mortality in the Transatlantic Slave Trade, pp. 1-15.

...Abortion is not a 'numbers game' Ruth Roemer M L Dembert, and J H PearnCopyRight https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.72.11.1299-a Published Online: October 07, 2011

Cha-ching

This paper examines the role of sell-side financial analysts and buy-side institutional investors in the so-called Numbers Game - managers manage earnings and/or guide analysts' earnings forecasts to meet or beat analysts' forecasts. I investigate and find firms with higher analyst following are less likely to engage in upward earnings management and more likely to guide analysts' forecasts downwards. I also find firms held to a greater extent by transient institutional investors are more likely to engage in upward earnings management and less likely to guide analysts' forecasts downwards, while firms held to a greater extent by dedicated institutional investors are less likely to engage in upward earnings management. The results indicate that the occurrence of upward earnings management and downward earnings guidance to meet or beat analysts' forecasts varies differently with analyst following and institutional ownership and with institutional owners having different investment horizons.

INTRODUCTION.- WHAT IS BUSINESS? The purpose of business. Sole traders. Partnerships. Limited companies.- THE BUSINESS OF LIVING - PART 1: Assets. Liabilities. Net worth. Balance sheet. Capital.- THE BUSINESS OF LIVING - PART 2: Earnings. Expenses.- THE BUSINESS OF LIVING - PART 3: Other transactions. Depreciation. Published balance sheets.- THE BUSINESS OF LIVING - PART 4: Profit and loss account. Cash flow statement.- THE NUMBERS GAME - RATIO ANALYSIS: The shareholder's view. The lender's view. The management view.- OTHER KINDS OF BUSINESS: Buying and selling. Manufacturing. Utilities. IT solutions.- FINANCING AND LEASING: To buy or not to buy? Rental. Operating leases. Hire purchase. Finance leases. Services and project finance. Outsourcing.- IS IT A GOOD INVESTMENT? Benefits and costs. Cash or profit? Opportunity cost. Decision criteria. Cost/benefit analysis example.- IS IT STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT? - PART 1: Payback. Net present value. Profitability index.- IS IT STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT? - PART 2: Internal rate of return. Risk. Return on investment.- Tailpiece.- Appendices.- References.- Index.

This paper discusses the needs for risk analysis in industrial enterprises. Several major points of concern are raised. The first topic is risk communication and the inclusion of feedback from involved parties. This also includes openness from top management concerning 'bad news' and its effect on project work. The second topic is the importance of thorough risk analytical work including hazard identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation and subsequent management of risk-reducing measures. This paper suggests that risk analysis is an important tool for project management, highlighting the importance of paying early attention to issues arising in a project before they further escalate to more serious events. This paper brings up important topics of risk management and offers scenarios of how different elements can affect project management. We question whether industry, and especially the oil and gas industry, is moving in the right direction of conducting proper risk management and whether the risk analytical work is turning into a 'numbers game' and a pro forma activity. This paper focuses on the integration of risk management and project management, thereby risk analysis can be a powerful tool for project management, helping it to succeed in transferring the company into a high reliability organization. Keywords Human and organizational factors in risk analysis, issue management, integration of risk analysis and project management, risk analysis of project construction phases, role of the risk analyst. Language: en

Bird, Karolyi, and Ruchti (2019) estimate a structural model of earnings management in the setting of meeting-or-beating the analyst consensus forecast. I provide an overview of their methods and findings, and then discuss the assumptions, benefits, and limitations of their approach.

This paper is skeptical about attributing welfarist motivations to Britain’s second generation of New Tows, initiated in the 1960s. Focusing specifically on the Runcorn New Town in North West England, on the outskirts of Liverpool, the paper examines its designation and development in the context of what scholars have called ‘the numbers game’, referring to the party-political competition that dramatically escalated annual housebuilding targets throughout the early decades of postwar Britain. The first section covers the negotiation of an ‘overspill’ programme for Merseyside in the mid 1950s. The second section covers the sea change that arrived with the ratcheting of the numbers game by Conservative Minister of Housing Keith Joseph in the early 1960s. The third section details the slum clearance programme adopted by Liverpool in 1966. And the final section addresses the consequences of an economic crisis at the end of the decade that brought the numbers game to a close. The paper concludes that Runcorn’s growth was indexed less to a housing emergency than to the coupling of political maneuvering with capitalist logic, and it argues for a revised historiographical perspective in which Runcorn’s decline is read as a consequence of these conditions.